Skip to comments.The Case of the Missing White Voters (7 Millions White Voters Stayed Home)
Posted on 11/08/2012 7:35:11 AM PST by LdSentinal
One of the more intriguing narratives for election 2012 was proposed by political scientist Brendan Nyhan fairly early on: that it was "Bizarro 2004." The parallels to that year certainly were eerie: An incumbent adored by his base but with middling approval ratings nationally faces off against an uncharismatic, wishy-washy official from Massachusetts. The race is tight during the summer until the president breaks open a significant lead after his convention. Then, after a tepid first debate for the incumbent, the contest tightens, bringing the opposition tantalizingly close to a win, but not quite close enough.
The Election Day returns actually continued the similarities. George W. Bush won by 2.4 percent of the popular vote, which is probably about what Obamas victory margin will be once all the ballots are counted. Republicans in 2004 won some surprising Senate seats, and picked up a handful of House seats as well. The GOP was cheered, claiming a broad mandate as a result of voters decision to ratify clear, unified Republican control of Congress and the presidency for the first time since 1928. As Bush famously put it, I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Jay Cost calculates the loss in white voters may be as high as 10 million. Turnout was WAY down for Obama across the board (he got fewer votes the GWB in 2004), but unfortunately the decline in turnout was even greater among whites. That, ultimately, is what made the difference. http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-barack-obama-and-triumph-identity-politics_662010.html?utm_source=Morning%20Jay%20Alert%20w%20Ad%20words%20-%2011/08/2012&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TWS%20Alerts
During the primaries a lot of people said "my candidate, or I won't vote". I guess they kept their word, - they showed us! Unfortunately, the Country will suffer for at least four years, and possibly forty, depending on Hussein puts on the SCOTUS. Then again, I have serious doubts if the Country will last that long.
But they showed us! /s
Why do people keep on posting this crap. There are millions of votes to be recorded yet. CA has only reported 69% of the vote, WA 55%, etc. Obama is going to receive around 65 million and Romney will go over 60 million.
In 2008, my brother, a union nurse, was taking care of our dying father at home. I had found my brother had denied my father access to conservative talk radio - my dad’s last passion for living. Dad passed away before the election. I wonder how many of our ailing and oldest boomer generation have been kept away from the media and the 2012 voting booth by their younger generations?
I never once saw any dems worried about this election even with the polls showing candidates so close..and in some congressional races there were wide gaps..but dems won..how?
It was all in those "early voters"--Romney won. We were cheated. Proving it is hopeless.
The excerpt makes your critique look cogent, but deeper in the article the author does a back-of-the-envelope estimate of the still uncounted west coast vote and still comes up with lots of white voters staying home, then does an analysis specific to Ohio and finds the same phenomenon.
Did 7 million voters stay home or were some of their votes discarded?
It’s the MILITARY VOTES that went missing (until - surprise, surprise - November 7th) that bothers me; and is the most disgraceful scandal of all for Obama.
Because there are a lot of folks who don't understand the most basic use of statistics, even the basic use and misuse of simple percentages. California would explain a significant chunk of the 'missing' votes.
We'll still have a dropoff from 2008 when all the votes are in, but smaller than those currently being discussed.
That happened in '04 and '06. I remember that we were going to teach the GOP a lesson by staying home. It may have happened again because some people felt that Romney was too moderate, but I think that would have been a minor group. I suspect that the hurricane that devastated the east coast may have been the biggest factor. That and there may have been a little voter fraud thrown in.
Not a mystery.
Romney was a vile RINO who got elected by flip-flopping on his position and lying about not only himslef, but the honest conservatives he ran against.
Many people saw through the white washed tomb of Romney’s exterior into the rotted core of corruption and death that is his soul.
I get the same feeling - results are not equal to the turnout. Some votes got "lost."
This election my 95 year old grandmother asked a neighbor for help filling out her absentee ballot. The neighbor berated my grandmother for asking for help voting for Romney and marked my grandmother’s ballot with an Obama vote and sealed the envelope for return.
When I heard about this I was irate - only to have my grandmother tell me that she received a call to let her know that the ballot was marked incorrectly and was invalid. The local voting official then drove to my grandmother’s house to help her correctly fill out another absentee ballot.
She got it right the second time and “voted for the rich guy.”
If the 7-10 million number is correct, we still need to ask where were these voters staying home? In Texas? Oklahoma? Or did they stay home in Wisconsin, Ohio, and FL? The election was only really contested in 7-8 states, so a decline in voting in the other 40+ states would not be consequential.
Yes, let’s blame and demonize the voters who we will need to change their minds and come vote for us in the next election. That sounds like a real winning strategy.
While doing some errands just now heard on the radio Neil Boortz mentioned that Akin and Mourdock while not only losing their Senate races, turned off a huge enough number of women that they voted for O.
I don’t know if there’s any truth to it- but it’s a possibility. I know as a conservative woman they infuriated ME, so I can imagine they certainly made some moderate women mad too.
now we will have an all left supreme court.
Thanks for helping Obama win!
You know that thread was pulled about the missing military votes.
Hopefully we have learned;
1)can’t beat nothing w/ nothing,
2)don’t crap on the base,
3)never run a wishy/washy Yankee Repub for Pres,
4)don’t neglect the White working class vote!
What was it that Obama said to his supporters? ... “If they bring a knife, you bring a gun.” - Barack HO
the big essential in this is that within the missing “white” voters, the numbers of “missing” between the two parties was greatly more on the Dims side “white” included), and not so much for Dim “blacks”
could some of those stay-out-home “whites” who voted Obama last time (buyers remorse) had been brought to not staying home and instead accepting the GOP candidate?
more detailed political analysis of the stay-at-homes, “white” and otherwise, trying to discern WHY they stayed home and what could have brought them out, will be needed
in general, a possibility is that they had buyers remorse vis-a-vis Obama but did not hear an effective alternate choice from Romney
maybe another example of Mister Nice Guy loses again?
Seven million votes were disappeared. Next: seven million voters. It CAN happen here.
Spot on. As I have said before here, we witnessed a bloodless coup on Tuesday night. The Dems gamed the system and will get away with it from now on. Why should they stop? There is only one reason they would.
7 million EVANGELICALS stayed home after lying to pollsters.
Read at this link and learn what happened on Election Day.
No doubt they were so ashamed of themselves for being white that they couldn’t go out of the house. In other words, they were edumacated in the public schools.
that said, these stinking voters that stayed home...I suspect many here....just gave us 4 more years of govt tyranny, and once that is entrenched, there is no going back...
by the next pres. election, we'll have millions and millions of new latino voters on the rat plantation....
Likely these were very conservative whites but with little imagination.
That said, how does anyone know these were specifically white voters? It's not like boards of election or secretaries of state track voters by race.
Whoever thinks that there wasn’t some voting shenanigans going on in places like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida is fooling themselves.
I don’t believe that the 7 million or really more did not vote. Something smelled bad right from the start. Romney improved in all the key demographic break downs, but white voters just decided not to vote; get real. It used to be that they just added votes, now they take them away. Probably, since they kept hitting the 100% mark of registered voters.
Romney would have been a great president....a leader....someone who loved America...someone who had business knowledge....someone who wouldn't back stab Israel....
you are pathetic.....
I really, really hate to say this (I really do) but I know a lot of evangelicals and the Mormon thing kept them from voting or they voted Johnson or Goode.
Don’t blame me. I gave them heck. I told them not voting for the Mormon who shared our ideals would give us the Muslim who despised them. But my guess is many of the missing voters “could not” pull the lever for a mormon.
The article is an opinion piece with no substantiation in it or footnoted by it. Unless the author knows every evangelical personally and has personal knowledge that all the evangelicals stayed home and didn’t vote then he is just playing the blame game. WHICH ISN’T HELPING
they will be the first to sink in this quagmire and maybe I'll give them a little push...
Discarded? If so are you telling me the Democrats are so much smarter than Republicans that they can get away with it?
Are you saying Republican poll watchers are children, or retarded?
Are you saying Democrats have some magic they use to discard votes without the opposition knowing about it?
Explain how the Democrats manage to do all this, and why can’t Republicans do the same thing?
I think it is also possible some have just gotten fed up and given up on elections mattering.
Also a lot of us probably underestimated the long term effects of the Financial Meltdown on the national Republican brand, fair or not. Romney’s economic image was not enough to change that dynamic.
Someone will have to come along to make them BELIEVE again...and I have no idea who that is, or if they exist. And to be honest, things never really DO change much.
Rove and Bush knew how to go into those rural communities and speak to them. Bush was able to walk the line between talking in a way that appeals to evangelicals, without turning off the moderates. Romney was trying to do the opposite. Speak to moderates without turning off the evangelicals (this could also relate to the Mormon factor). I thought anti Obama thoughts would help overcome this, that Romney had done enough, but it seems not.
The truth is, Bush was a talented campaigner that flew under the radar due to his manner. I remember reading Bill Clinton’s thoughts about Bush in 2000 when Bush was speaking in Iowa..this was really early on...and Clinton said he saw how good Bush with the crowd “he gets it”.
That style works with the Right and the middle. Obama found something that turned non likely voters out, but how many Obama’s do the Dems have....the GOP obviously didn’t have another Bush lying around (this is in terms of campaigning, not governing). And, things change too, you can’t really duplicate campaigns...they all have their own story, feel and point in history.
Unfortunately, I fear the GOP will decide to go LEFT to win it.
For all the talk of Bush being TOO Right and Romney portrayed as right be the MSM, they were barely in the middle.
The biggest win for the Left and MSM was the ability to define what true Left and right are. When Romney can be said to be too extreme on the Right....reality is dead.
“The Case of the Missing White Voters (7 Millions White Voters Stayed Home)”
I’m wondering just how many of these were white Christians and white Evangelicals who just could not vote for Romney because of his Mormonism — even though they might be reluctant to state as much openly...
This was a serious problem and something many were unwilling to talk about during the campaign. Yes, it did receive a little lip service, but I sense that there were undercurrents here not visible on the surface that affected the final outcome.
It’s you and the other “pragmatists” fault.
If you drew the line in the sand, and meant it, they would not attempt to foist off a Democrat-in-Republican-Clothing like Romney.
This is not about ideological “purity.”
Romney was a disgusting man who lied and slandered actual conservatives.
>>Many people saw through the white washed tomb of Romneys exterior into the rotted core of corruption and death that is his soul.<<
I must say, you have a flair for the melodramatic.