No. Just turn 3.5 voters
The President won D:53 R: 47
If you get 3.5 voters on your side you win D:49.5 -
R:50.5
I don’t know where I got this number, but I saw a 5.3% lead in early votes for ZEro using SoS number of 28% of Ohioans voted early. If that’s true, based on 08, that would come out to about 80k votes to beat on election day. No problemo. Still trying to figure out where I saw this 5.3 figure. Now, that does not address D to R crossovers or Indies.
“If you get 3.5 voters you win”
You’re right of course. I can’t keep the fraud factor out of my head.
Exactamundo!
In 2008, Ohio did not vote more for Obama than the rest of the country. So, if the dial is moved from a 7 point nationwide margin for Obama in 2008, to a toss-up in 2012; we would expect Ohio to move from a 4 point margin for Obama in 2008 to a Republican 3 point margin in 2012. O.K., maybe the auto bailout will help Obama in Ohio relative to the nation. Then, when you look at simply the number of early votes in the state (not to mention their association with voters who previously participated in either Republican or Democratic primaries, or with their location), you should be thinking positive about Romney’s prospects in the state.
Ohio is NOT a frewall state in the sense that it should be presumed to go to Obama even if the Republicans wins the nationwide popular vote. It’s a last line in the sand. The Democrat’s Seigfried Line. We will smash through this last line of defense the way we did in 1944.