Posted on 11/06/2012 12:49:06 AM PST by Arthurio
Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report has analyzed the early voter data from Ohio and seems to have concluded that Obama has done horribly in Ohio early voting. We are no longer talking about polls. He has analyzed hard data that was reported today by the Ohio Secretary of State.
Here are some of his tweets. Nate Silver is NOT happy.
Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) tweeted at 12:22am - 6 Nov 12:
@fivethirtyeight OH data seems high quality, and we're possibly on track for a significantly different turnout model vs. '08...(1/2)
Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) tweeted at 12:27am - 6 Nov 12:
By my calc, in '08, 24.8% of registered voters in Obama's OH counties voted early, 19.1% in McCain. Today, 21.7% Obama and 21.3% McCain
Obama is using a traditional strategy—you don’t campaign on election day.
Romney is using a football strategy—you play till the whistle stops blowing.
You can learn a lot about the two men just by comparing those two strategies.
This is series and hugh! Look at the early vote result in Cuyahoga Co. This might even be worth a thread of it’s own.
“Not always the rose colored view is right.”
So forget about rose colored glasses and look at the internals and unskew the polls:
http://unskewedpolls.com/
I walked right in to vote for McKook first thing Election morning. Parked right out in front of the polling place. Crickets in my mostly GOP Hamilton County Ohio polling place in 2008.
Although I voted absentee this year, I drove by and saw crowded conditions.
My conclusion: more GOP enthusiasm this election.
Are we sure these are the true early vote numbers?
If so, Romney is headed for a big win today. Even if all the remaining unreported Cuyahoga precincts are 95% Obama, his overall state lead in early voting lead would be miniscule, if he overtook Romney at all.
Best one I've ever heard was a technical writer colleague of mine in the mid/late 1990s, back when the interwebs was bright and new and shiny, like some uncharted New World. This cat was in his mid forties, and he wanted to buy his toddler nephew a teddy bear for his birthday. So he goes into the Google, enters "bear" as a search term, and gets an illustrated education about what it means to be a "bear" in the, um, homosexual community.
Gee, I'd "hate" to see him catch an elbow to the chops on an important day like today... /sarc
Jeff Jacobsen, long time R operative in OH, very optimistic. Feels like a win.
“GOP is the party of big business.”
The Tea Party wing of the GOP is the party of smaller businesses and responsible folk who understand that a sensible border and immigration policy is in the interests of all Americans.
We have something to say about this, and the old GOP pols had best listen if 2010 and 2012 have given them any clue...
Never fear, there are always plenty around here ready to find the cloud in the silver lining.
“Jeff Jacobsen, long time R operative in OH, very optimistic. Feels like a win.”
Great news. The Corrupt Media can’t call it early though, as it’ll effect their Democrat colleagues down ticket.
Oops - ‘affect’ above (vs. ‘effect’) - that one gets me sometimes!
Don’t delude yourself, the Rats are all about big business, especially if that big business donates to the DNC coffers.
Yeah and last night, on FoxBusiness, the prez of (yuck) AOL was talking abt their humanitarian efforts for Staten Isld, etc....
Oh yeah, Big Bad Big Business....
Looks like that has been pulled...is there another link?
I'm streaming Glenn Beck on KTSM in El Paso. At the 9:30 news break, the announcer came on and said that voting was WAY DOWN in El Paso from 2008.
Now granted, Texas is solid Romney, so the outcome isn't in doubt there. But El Paso, with its large Hispanic population, was a center of overwhelming support for Zero in 2008, and turned out big numbers. If Hispanic turn-out is way down in El Paso, I think you might be seeing a real enthusiasm drop off for Zero which might in turn be a bellweather for other centers of heavy Zero support.
Fingers crossed.
Any moron could have predicted what was going to ahppen in 2008. So Nate Silver has no track record other than 2008, that isn’t enough then.
One lucky year doesn’t make it.
I just check his website and I wonder how Egg he will have on his face if he turns out to be be massively wrong, he should stick to baseball.
Awww, he's being "bullied" by real polling data. Maybe he'll take the usual way out of "bullying."
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