[Wayne07]

"Forty percent (40%) of likely voters in the Buckeye State have already voted. Obama leads 60% to 37% among these voters."

That can't be good...

[cicero2k]

Forty percent (40%) of likely voters in the Buckeye State have already voted. Obama leads 60% to 37% among these voters.

---

If that is true it is over for Mitt in OH. There is no way the remaining 60% will tilt the other way.

[xuberalles]

Romney will win Florida, Virginia, and a combination of one or more of OH/PA/WI. If Obama loses Ohio or Pennsylvania Romney will win. Losing Wisconsin isn’t necessarily a deathblow for Hussein, but it would be indicative of bigger problems.

[CatOwner]

All I can say is “Come on WI and IA!”.

[johncocktoasten]

Further analysis here.

1. Sunday one day poll
2. Early vote over sampled by 10% giving Obama an extra 1.5%
3. RNC claims a margin of 364k MORE high propensity voters than Dems available on Election Day.
4. Rove says that the Obama edge in EV is 75000 votes.

[manx]

Well, even Rasmussen has it at 49% to 49% overall. So it can't be that bad even by whatever bizarre calculations he is doing. If Republican turn out is slightly more than he projects then Romney wins.

But lets get real, pollsters play these games every election. LAST MINUTE SHOCKING POLL!!!! I am getting old enough, and have seen it enough, to stop taking it as seriously. Tomorrow night we will know.

[line drive to right]

Rove said today something that is consistent with what he’s been tracking in Ohio. He said that as of two days ago, I believe, democrat early voting was 187,000 below what it was in 2008, and that republican voting was up 75,000. That’s a swing of, theoretically, 262,000. Obama won Ohio by 260,000, maybe 263,000. So, if Rove’s numbers are true, and I have no idea why they wouldn’t be — because that’s numbers available to him, I think, and not from polling — Romney is in very good shape in Ohio.....even McCain got tens of thousands more votes on election day in Ohio than did Obama.

[comebacknewt]

One odd thing. The number of self-report early voters in Ohio is always way higher than the actual Secretary of State’s numbers.

Perhaps they have returned their ballots by mail but they haven’t been received yet. Or, perhaps they are lying.

If they are lying, then the likely voter models in Ohio are wrong in our favor. On the other hand, if those numbers are accurate, then a 20%+ lead is going to be very difficult to overcome on election day.

[Birdy]

So the dems pushed a bunch of their likely voters out early while ours are waiting until election day. I know I’ve been keeping my powder dry with my Ohio vote, as has every conservative voter I know. I wouldn’t get spooked by this yet.

[nathanbedford]

As I understand it, Rasmussen asked those polls whether they had voted and he got a return that said "40% of likely voters in the Buckeye state have already voted."

Question: what is the margin of error? I would guess + -3% or 4%.

Since the assertion is that this 40% figure is of "likely" voters, what is the margin of error in identifying likely voters? Is it also + -3% or 4%? If so, should these two sums be added for a total margin of error of 3% or 8%?

The report also says:

"Obama leads 60% to 37% among these voters."

Question: is there a margin of error here? Could this be 57% to 40 %, for example? Again, is this a margin of error cumulative? If it is the fact that Rasmussen has gotten corrupt data in that nothing like 40% have already voted, rather 28% according to official statistics have voted, is all of this corrupt? Is it possible that this poll is correct and that the official statistics are lagging and will eventually come up to his poll? How much credibility does this deserve?

The report goes on:

"Ninety-three percent (93%) have made up their minds whom they will vote for, and it’s Obama 50%, Romney 49% in this group."

Since Rasmussen obviously did not question everyone who has made up his mind among likely voters, is it correct to assume that there is a margin of error in identifying the group that he says is 93%? Is it also fair to say that the margin of error here should be an added to the original margin of error? Is it fair to say that the cumulative margin of error could be as high as 8%?

If Rasmussen has one point separating Obama and Romney (50%-49%) "in this group" it seems to me the margin of error is cumulative in identifying the group and identifying the result within the group. Is the margin of error 3% +3% or only 3% of 3%?

We are talking about subgroups within subgroups and a difference of 1%. How can we draw any conclusions from these data in such a close race?

[zencycler]

I look at it this way. Romney will win FL, NC, VA, CO and NH - which brings him to 261. Among the larger tossup states, that leaves WI, MN, MI, PA, and OH. All are close, and Obama would have to win all 5 to keep Romney below 270.

But even if he does win all 5, Obama would need also need to take 2 out of 3 from IA, NV and OR.

And even if he does take IA nd NV, Romney can still get to 269 by taking OR and winning 1 electoral vote from Maine.

So for all this talk about Romney needing to "run the table", the way I see it, Obama has to virtually run the table among the tossups I mentioned, which admittedly could go either way.

[svcw]

Seriously I detest the “must win this or that”, Romney must WIN - period

[Teacher317]

Ohio: Romney 49%, Obama 49% (Romney Must Win VA, FL, And Either OH/WI)

Real Clear Politics has the current EV at 201-191, with the following 11 states "in play":
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)

Handing Obama OH, FL, VA, and WI gives him 272 and a victory. Take out any one of those, and he can lose. There are no "must-win" groupings of any 2-3 states for either side. Obama or Mitt will need about half, if not more, of those 11 states to take the election...

and my prediction is that one of them will. =^)

[patriot08]

[Atlas Sneezed]

Here are the scenarios:
Romney takes all the McCain 2008 states, plus NC VA FL IN CO. This yields 257 EVs. Then only one of the following must be won for a Romney victory:
1. OH(18) -or-
2. PA(20) -or-
3. MI(16) -or-
4. MN(10) + [NH(4) or IA(6) or NV(6) or...] -or-
5. WI(10) + [NH(4) or IA(6) or NV(6) or...] -or-
6. NV(6) + IA(6) (the tie scenario).