Posted on 11/05/2012 2:47:11 PM PST by Kaslin
Here’s the best explanation I’ve read of why pollsters discount mid-term results, from Barrons, http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903463204578048870829726606.html#articleTabs_article%3D1
“Political scientists generally discount the predictive power of midterms—and with good reason—but this time may be different. Turnout for these contests generally is short of its potential by 30% to 40%, which is too low to be reflective of the nation’s mood, the argument goes. And a party that is out of power typically scores gains in a midterm because its adherents are frustrated, angry, and consequently more energized than the incumbent party. This was true in 2006 when Democrats took back Congress from the GOP. In 2010, a backlash against Obamacare by Republicans certainly was the biggest factor in their rout of the Democrats.
But Morgan reasons that the 2010 election was not your run-of-the-mill midterm. “It was historic,” he says, comparing it to epic GOP victories in 1894 and 1924. “This was as good as any of them. In the Senate we won 25 seats and lost 13. This is astounding.”
Can someone tell me what I’m missing in the graphic below? It looks like Indy’s are breaking for Obama by a point.
I think you are correct. Tide turning to Obama perhaps??
Check the polls.
From Gallup:
“The race is not only close overall, but has Romney and Obama holding equally strong advantages among men and women, respectively, and closely matched among political independents. This suggests that turnout of partisans could be particularly important in deciding the election, with Romney poised to benefit slightly more if they do, with 96% of Republicans backing him, as compared with Obama’s 93% support from Democrats.”
Kaslin ? have you seen the latest Drudge Report about a Russian Nuclear Attack Sub was detected 200 miles of the East coast of the USA ?
And that’s not all...a Russian AGI which is a floating electronics intercept station was allowed into port at Jacksonville because of the storm! The ship clearly knew the strom track well in advance and had plenty of time to relocate to safer waters. There is NO reason for a spy ship to ever dock in a U.S. port.
“officials also said that a Russian electronic intelligence-
gathering vessel was granted safe harbor in the commercial port of Jacksonville, Fla., within listening range of Kings Bay.
The Russian AGI ship, or Auxiliary-General Intelligence, was allowed to stay in the port to avoid the superstorm that battered the U.S. East Coast last week. A Jacksonville Port Authority spokeswoman had no immediate comment on the Russian AGI at the port.”
Hey Rush... I heard you ask this today. Let me answer you with one of your own famous quotes. “It doesn’t fit their template” for the election.
LLS
Has this been posted here on FR ?
Has this been posted here on FR ?
I wonder if allowing Russian vessles access to our waters is an example of the “flexibility” that Obama promised Medvedev?
http://freebeacon.com/russian-subs-skirt-coast/
The article is by noted defense analyst Bill Gertz. He’s solid.
That ticks me off! We were just at that sub base and they pulled us over, had all kinds of questions and did their jobs, I guess, before finally allowing us access to the base. We of course had proper ID and paper work but still...Russians get in easier than American Vets? Jeez.
Rush, 'tis irrelevant...
ALL - #1...I believe, to the Obama campaign right now, they've already inwardly ceded the popular vote...but are forging their firewall to take Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Michigan in the Northern Midwest...and then, jumping Indiana, Ohio & PA toward the East...
So, they think they can get 47-48% of the popular vote & still win the electoral vote count...
#2: Why Is Nobody Calculating 2010? And to quote Rush: In 2010, the electorate turned out to reject Barack Obama, and nothing has changed except it's gotten worse -- which, to me, 2010 is a far-more-relevant turnout model and election model than 2008 is...
Again, Rush, not relevant...
34% of the 2010 vote were Evangelicals...that's not 34% of the GoP vote...that was 34% of the ENTIRE ELECTORATE!
Now do you think the GoP-establishment appreciated that by securing a candidate the Evangelicals could rally behind in 2012? (Not on your life, unless you think a socialist healthcare pioneer, pro-abort, idolatrist 'god-in-embryo' qualifies)
It is true that among SOME Evangelical leaders & local pastors, they've been able to glean enough excitement to make some swing states close. But will that be enough?
At this point, I'm thinkin' all roads lead thru Ohio...If Romney didn't get the Ohio Evangelicals to rally enough, then I don't think he's going to pull it off...I think it'll all come down to Ohio...and I think it'll be razor-thin there...either way...
Yeah, I know Michael Barone and Dick Morris are forecasting 330 electoral votes for Romney...I know Newt Gingrich is saying 300+ electoral votes for Romney...
I know Karl Rove is saying a narrow Romney victory...
But even some talk-show hosts like Michael Medved today was starting to show his uncertainty...
The Democratic machinery could have enough in place to pull out a given swing state...(especially as you size up normal Dem-party chicago-like chicanery)
And conversely, the Evangelical excitement just isn't there this year...Evangelicals will NOT repeat its 34% of the electorate performance of 2010...Not even close...
The GoP-e just didn't think Evangelicals were an important piece of the 2012 puzzle...Even bringing Billy Graham on board was a late after-thought...
Signed...An Evangelical...
I just posted the submarine/AGI story.
Michael Medved is a complete moron.
Whatever he says, the complete opposite is true.
Take it to the bank...evangelicals will show up in greater numbers than they ever have. The evangelicals (men especially) are fired up and anxious to give Obama the boot. I’ve never heard these men as political as they are today. The hate they have for Obama because of how he has moved against families, churches and the military is real and intense. If this nation rights itself tomorrow, it will be because men finally had enough and got up and voted like never before.
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