Romney Wins on Tuesday

National Review ^ | 11/6/12 | Josh Jordan

[SoFloFreeper]

State by state, here’s how it’ll happen.

...I’m going to make my predictions on this race based on more than just the polls. Over the past few months there have been many indicators that this race is going to be drastically different from the one we saw in 2008 — Romney’s crowd sizes, volunteer efforts, fundraising efforts, and a change in the Obama campaign from presenting the candidate as an uplifting symbol of hope to presenting him as a beleaguered president trying to claw his way to reelection.

First, I believe Romney will squeeze out a popular-vote win of about two percentage points: 50.5 to 48.5 (I’m assuming about 1 percent of the vote will go third party). This margin will be enough for Romney to win the Electoral College...

My final Electoral College prediction is 305 for Romney to 233 for Obama. We’ll find out in two days how close I am, but if Republicans come out Tuesday like the party-identification polls from Gallup and Rasmussen have predicted, I feel confident that Romney is going to shock the conventional wisdom set by the media and be announced as the next president of the United States.

[SoFloFreeper]

This guy is "numbers cruncher" on Twitter...FWIW.

[fortheDeclaration]

Sounds good, I am expecting a bigger Romney win.

[goldstategop]

This guy is crunching the stats based on the discredited 2008 turnout model.

The popular vote won’t be that close. O is is not going to get more than 46% about two percentage points below his final poll showing.

Romney wins 51% O wins 46% and 1% other. A decent five points.

[98ZJ USMC]

Sounds good, I am expecting a bigger Romney win.

Yep, 5-6%. Pure number crunching cannot predict this election and all the variables are in our favor, with the exception of outright fraud.

[goldstategop]

EV - about 314. MN is a bridge too far and NV has the Dingy Harry vote machine.

Romney will carry all the rest and can call it a good night. If its a blowout, 350 max.

[LiveFreeOrDie2001]

Minnesota is a possibility.

We’re getting the lit in the mail & seeing lots of quality ads. We just may “Shock the World” as Jesse Ventura said the night he won!

See, Mn is a wild card.........

LOL at Jesse...

[jsanders2001]

I find it hard to believe it will be that close but then again if you take all of 0’s dirty ACORN type tactics into account and getting dead people, people that use aternate alias identities to vote in multiple jurisdictions, previously illegal aliens that were granted amnesty, and people without mental competency to vote, maybe.

[Melinda in TN]

I did the interactive predictor on Fox and came up with 308 for Romney.

[muir_redwoods]

Right or wrong, I hope he’s back on line either gloating of explaining his error. I desperately hope the country can shed this tumoruos presidency but I am just so tired of these predictions. If there were a reliable method of foreseeing the result of this election we wouldn’t have hundreds of conflicting predictions, many explaining their findings down to the precinct level.

[USS Alaska]

I did the interactive predictor on Fox and came up with 308 for Romney

I did it too, but my number came up 610-00, as Romney/Ryan swept all

57 STATES

[C210N]

if you take all of 0’s dirty ACORN type tactics into account...

This election cycle seems to have this paradigm where 'rats are playing this game: "It's OKAY to cheat and steal, and we'll try EVERY which way and that away to do it - see if you can catch us!", whereas republicans find examples here and there of SOME instances of this, it gets largely unreported, and the game goes on.

This game has gone on for many a cycle, but today is very sophisticated. The "end game" is loss of the republic.

[EagleInGA]

Romney wins 51% O wins 46% and 1% other.

I don't know ... A week ago Romney looked to win and possibly big, but he lost his momentum in the storm and the Fat Man from New Jersey didn't do him any favors.

While I have never been a Romney fan, the thought of 4 more years of Obama is quite discouraging. Right now it "feels" like Obama may hold on by a thread. Here is hoping the turnout is overwhelming in our favor.

[alisasny]

I just saw the fat man from NJ with his arm around janet and kissing her all lovey dovey.... i nearly threw up in my mouth.....
what the hell has gotten into him?

[MSF BU]

Is this the conservative counterpart to Silver? Is there another counterpart?

[Netz]

I think we are mixing wishfull thinking with wishfull thinking. There is a distinct possibility that the Kenyan might win by a hair, God forbid but it IS a possibility so let’s keep our heads up and our hands on the wheel...

[Melinda in TN]

New York and New Jersey are turning on Obama for doing his photo op and then nothing. They probably won’t go Romney but we can hope.

[R. Scott]

Yesterday there was a predictor just as reliable. It has worked in 17 of 18 elections.
If the Redskins win the home game before the election the incumbent wins. If they lose the challenger wins. Redskins lost.

[9YearLurker]

I hope and suspect you’re pretty close there.

[Pollster1]

The author’s picks match Rasmussen’s current picks or advantage where Rasmussen has a tie with a slight edge one way or the other, except: Rasmussen calls Ohio and Wisconsin ties, and the author gives Ohio’s 18 EV to Romney and Wisconsin’s 10 EV to Obama.

[RGSpincich]

saw the fat man from NJ with his arm around janet

Sal Tessio hedging his bet. We all know how that worked out.