"Can you get me off the hook, Tom? For old times' sake?"
Posted on 11/05/2012 2:31:35 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
State by state, here’s how it’ll happen.
...I’m going to make my predictions on this race based on more than just the polls. Over the past few months there have been many indicators that this race is going to be drastically different from the one we saw in 2008 — Romney’s crowd sizes, volunteer efforts, fundraising efforts, and a change in the Obama campaign from presenting the candidate as an uplifting symbol of hope to presenting him as a beleaguered president trying to claw his way to reelection.
First, I believe Romney will squeeze out a popular-vote win of about two percentage points: 50.5 to 48.5 (I’m assuming about 1 percent of the vote will go third party). This margin will be enough for Romney to win the Electoral College...
My final Electoral College prediction is 305 for Romney to 233 for Obama. We’ll find out in two days how close I am, but if Republicans come out Tuesday like the party-identification polls from Gallup and Rasmussen have predicted, I feel confident that Romney is going to shock the conventional wisdom set by the media and be announced as the next president of the United States.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
Sounds good, I am expecting a bigger Romney win.
This guy is crunching the stats based on the discredited 2008 turnout model.
The popular vote won’t be that close. O is is not going to get more than 46% about two percentage points below his final poll showing.
Romney wins 51% O wins 46% and 1% other. A decent five points.
EV - about 314. MN is a bridge too far and NV has the Dingy Harry vote machine.
Romney will carry all the rest and can call it a good night. If its a blowout, 350 max.
Minnesota is a possibility.
We’re getting the lit in the mail & seeing lots of quality ads. We just may “Shock the World” as Jesse Ventura said the night he won!
See, Mn is a wild card.........
LOL at Jesse...
I find it hard to believe it will be that close but then again if you take all of 0’s dirty ACORN type tactics into account and getting dead people, people that use aternate alias identities to vote in multiple jurisdictions, previously illegal aliens that were granted amnesty, and people without mental competency to vote, maybe.
I did the interactive predictor on Fox and came up with 308 for Romney.
Right or wrong, I hope he’s back on line either gloating of explaining his error. I desperately hope the country can shed this tumoruos presidency but I am just so tired of these predictions. If there were a reliable method of foreseeing the result of this election we wouldn’t have hundreds of conflicting predictions, many explaining their findings down to the precinct level.
I did it too, but my number came up 610-00, as Romney/Ryan swept all
This election cycle seems to have this paradigm where 'rats are playing this game: "It's OKAY to cheat and steal, and we'll try EVERY which way and that away to do it - see if you can catch us!", whereas republicans find examples here and there of SOME instances of this, it gets largely unreported, and the game goes on.
This game has gone on for many a cycle, but today is very sophisticated. The "end game" is loss of the republic.
I don't know ... A week ago Romney looked to win and possibly big, but he lost his momentum in the storm and the Fat Man from New Jersey didn't do him any favors.
While I have never been a Romney fan, the thought of 4 more years of Obama is quite discouraging. Right now it "feels" like Obama may hold on by a thread. Here is hoping the turnout is overwhelming in our favor.
I just saw the fat man from NJ with his arm around janet and kissing her all lovey dovey.... i nearly threw up in my mouth.....
what the hell has gotten into him?
Is this the conservative counterpart to Silver? Is there another counterpart?
New York and New Jersey are turning on Obama for doing his photo op and then nothing. They probably won’t go Romney but we can hope.
Yesterday there was a predictor just as reliable. It has worked in 17 of 18 elections.
If the Redskins win the home game before the election the incumbent wins. If they lose the challenger wins. Redskins lost.
I hope and suspect you’re pretty close there.
The author’s picks match Rasmussen’s current picks or advantage where Rasmussen has a tie with a slight edge one way or the other, except: Rasmussen calls Ohio and Wisconsin ties, and the author gives Ohio’s 18 EV to Romney and Wisconsin’s 10 EV to Obama.
Sal Tessio hedging his bet. We all know how that worked out.
didnt we go through this with mcpain..? sad
Nothing has gotten into him... nothing but whatever is edible and within arms length. You are seeing the real deal... and it is not a pretty sight.
LLS
Agreed. It shouldn't be this close and I have always contended that the mistake Romney made was allowing Obama to pound him all summer with no meaningful response.
The question is whether the "R"s turn out to match the "D"S, since independents are clearly trending Romney. If they do then Obama should be gone.
Obama is a walking disaster and a terrible leader. He is decimating the military and Benghazi shows the results of combining weakness, cowardliness and lack of integrity. With a son heading for the Middle East in December I am quite concerned that this loser get another 4-years. Simply put, this guy cares more about his image in history then the lives of brave Americans fighting to keep our country safe. That is frightening.
“Sounds good, I am expecting a bigger Romney win”
Me too. Its all over for Barry except the slow walkin and sad singin.
LLS
— Gotten into Christie?
Stockholm Syndrome
Votes cast have to add up to 100%, you cannot vote “undecided” or “present”.
Agreed #2.
As someone else said, that this election is even close is a statement on how totally deceived and clueless half our nation is - and that is a much greater problem than the man they support and elected exists.
The man elected by them is a symptom, and we can deal with the symptom occasionally, but if we don’t deal with the root cause of the disease, we are toast. It’s only a matter of time.
What is the disease? Primarily it is that we have abandoned God. Even conservatives (how strong are those who hate us who are against abortion?).
Abandoning God resulted in the takeover of our education system, and then the media.....the only two sources for everything known by almost a majority of our nation.......
People don’t seem to be tuned in to what is sgoing on up there.
It is a complete mess. One I haven’t seen ever
Those races will be at least interesting.
"Can you get me off the hook, Tom? For old times' sake?"
Ha, ha, I like your math! If you lived near me, I would treat you to lunch at Chick Fil A tomorrow. :-)
Hopefully, we will prevent some fraud, and if the demonRATS in Philly don't turn out in full force at 110%, we have a good chance to win in PA.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.