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Romney Wins on Tuesday
National Review ^ | 11/6/12 | Josh Jordan

Posted on 11/05/2012 2:31:35 AM PST by SoFloFreeper

State by state, here’s how it’ll happen.

...I’m going to make my predictions on this race based on more than just the polls. Over the past few months there have been many indicators that this race is going to be drastically different from the one we saw in 2008 — Romney’s crowd sizes, volunteer efforts, fundraising efforts, and a change in the Obama campaign from presenting the candidate as an uplifting symbol of hope to presenting him as a beleaguered president trying to claw his way to reelection.

First, I believe Romney will squeeze out a popular-vote win of about two percentage points: 50.5 to 48.5 (I’m assuming about 1 percent of the vote will go third party). This margin will be enough for Romney to win the Electoral College...

My final Electoral College prediction is 305 for Romney to 233 for Obama. We’ll find out in two days how close I am, but if Republicans come out Tuesday like the party-identification polls from Gallup and Rasmussen have predicted, I feel confident that Romney is going to shock the conventional wisdom set by the media and be announced as the next president of the United States.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012predictions; bewaredeweytruman; romney3012
This guy is "numbers cruncher" on Twitter...FWIW.
1 posted on 11/05/2012 2:31:47 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper

Sounds good, I am expecting a bigger Romney win.


2 posted on 11/05/2012 2:40:10 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: SoFloFreeper

This guy is crunching the stats based on the discredited 2008 turnout model.

The popular vote won’t be that close. O is is not going to get more than 46% about two percentage points below his final poll showing.

Romney wins 51% O wins 46% and 1% other. A decent five points.


3 posted on 11/05/2012 2:46:51 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: fortheDeclaration
Sounds good, I am expecting a bigger Romney win.

Yep, 5-6%. Pure number crunching cannot predict this election and all the variables are in our favor, with the exception of outright fraud.
4 posted on 11/05/2012 2:47:38 AM PST by 98ZJ USMC
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To: 98ZJ USMC

EV - about 314. MN is a bridge too far and NV has the Dingy Harry vote machine.

Romney will carry all the rest and can call it a good night. If its a blowout, 350 max.


5 posted on 11/05/2012 2:52:05 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

Minnesota is a possibility.

We’re getting the lit in the mail & seeing lots of quality ads. We just may “Shock the World” as Jesse Ventura said the night he won!

See, Mn is a wild card.........

LOL at Jesse...


6 posted on 11/05/2012 3:01:43 AM PST by LiveFreeOrDie2001 (My Birthday is on Election Day. Wish me a VERY Happy Birthday!)
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To: LiveFreeOrDie2001

I find it hard to believe it will be that close but then again if you take all of 0’s dirty ACORN type tactics into account and getting dead people, people that use aternate alias identities to vote in multiple jurisdictions, previously illegal aliens that were granted amnesty, and people without mental competency to vote, maybe.


7 posted on 11/05/2012 3:19:36 AM PST by jsanders2001
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To: SoFloFreeper

I did the interactive predictor on Fox and came up with 308 for Romney.


8 posted on 11/05/2012 3:27:15 AM PST by Melinda in TN
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To: SoFloFreeper

Right or wrong, I hope he’s back on line either gloating of explaining his error. I desperately hope the country can shed this tumoruos presidency but I am just so tired of these predictions. If there were a reliable method of foreseeing the result of this election we wouldn’t have hundreds of conflicting predictions, many explaining their findings down to the precinct level.


9 posted on 11/05/2012 3:29:06 AM PST by muir_redwoods (Don't fire until you see the blue of their helmets)
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To: Melinda in TN
I did the interactive predictor on Fox and came up with 308 for Romney

I did it too, but my number came up 610-00, as Romney/Ryan swept all

57 STATES

10 posted on 11/05/2012 3:37:24 AM PST by USS Alaska (Nuke the terrorist savages, start today.)
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To: jsanders2001
if you take all of 0’s dirty ACORN type tactics into account...

This election cycle seems to have this paradigm where 'rats are playing this game: "It's OKAY to cheat and steal, and we'll try EVERY which way and that away to do it - see if you can catch us!", whereas republicans find examples here and there of SOME instances of this, it gets largely unreported, and the game goes on.

This game has gone on for many a cycle, but today is very sophisticated. The "end game" is loss of the republic.

11 posted on 11/05/2012 3:42:52 AM PST by C210N ("ask not what the candidate can do for you, ask what you can do for the candidate" (Breitbart, 2012))
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To: goldstategop
Romney wins 51% O wins 46% and 1% other.

I don't know ... A week ago Romney looked to win and possibly big, but he lost his momentum in the storm and the Fat Man from New Jersey didn't do him any favors.

While I have never been a Romney fan, the thought of 4 more years of Obama is quite discouraging. Right now it "feels" like Obama may hold on by a thread. Here is hoping the turnout is overwhelming in our favor.

12 posted on 11/05/2012 3:52:26 AM PST by EagleInGA
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To: EagleInGA

I just saw the fat man from NJ with his arm around janet and kissing her all lovey dovey.... i nearly threw up in my mouth.....
what the hell has gotten into him?


13 posted on 11/05/2012 4:01:42 AM PST by alisasny (If you cant afford 10 bucks per month to save your own daughters ovary then vote OBAMA.)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Is this the conservative counterpart to Silver? Is there another counterpart?


14 posted on 11/05/2012 4:05:25 AM PST by MSF BU (n)
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To: EagleInGA
I think we are mixing wishfull thinking with wishfull thinking. There is a distinct possibility that the Kenyan might win by a hair, God forbid but it IS a possibility so let’s keep our heads up and our hands on the wheel...
15 posted on 11/05/2012 4:14:29 AM PST by Netz (Netz)
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To: EagleInGA

New York and New Jersey are turning on Obama for doing his photo op and then nothing. They probably won’t go Romney but we can hope.


16 posted on 11/05/2012 4:16:41 AM PST by Melinda in TN
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To: SoFloFreeper

Yesterday there was a predictor just as reliable. It has worked in 17 of 18 elections.
If the Redskins win the home game before the election the incumbent wins. If they lose the challenger wins. Redskins lost.


17 posted on 11/05/2012 4:23:30 AM PST by R. Scott (Humanity i love you because when you're hard up you pawn your Intelligence to buy a drink)
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To: goldstategop

I hope and suspect you’re pretty close there.


18 posted on 11/05/2012 4:23:46 AM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: SoFloFreeper

The author’s picks match Rasmussen’s current picks or advantage where Rasmussen has a tie with a slight edge one way or the other, except: Rasmussen calls Ohio and Wisconsin ties, and the author gives Ohio’s 18 EV to Romney and Wisconsin’s 10 EV to Obama.


19 posted on 11/05/2012 4:23:52 AM PST by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: alisasny
saw the fat man from NJ with his arm around janet

Sal Tessio hedging his bet. We all know how that worked out.

20 posted on 11/05/2012 4:25:43 AM PST by RGSpincich
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To: SoFloFreeper

didnt we go through this with mcpain..? sad


21 posted on 11/05/2012 4:32:08 AM PST by dalebert
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To: alisasny

Nothing has gotten into him... nothing but whatever is edible and within arms length. You are seeing the real deal... and it is not a pretty sight.

LLS


22 posted on 11/05/2012 4:36:04 AM PST by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
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To: Netz
I think we are mixing wishfull thinking with wishfull thinking. There is a distinct possibility that the Kenyan might win by a hair, God forbid but it IS a possibility so let’s keep our heads up and our hands on the wheel...

Agreed. It shouldn't be this close and I have always contended that the mistake Romney made was allowing Obama to pound him all summer with no meaningful response.

The question is whether the "R"s turn out to match the "D"S, since independents are clearly trending Romney. If they do then Obama should be gone.

Obama is a walking disaster and a terrible leader. He is decimating the military and Benghazi shows the results of combining weakness, cowardliness and lack of integrity. With a son heading for the Middle East in December I am quite concerned that this loser get another 4-years. Simply put, this guy cares more about his image in history then the lives of brave Americans fighting to keep our country safe. That is frightening.

23 posted on 11/05/2012 4:40:10 AM PST by EagleInGA
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To: fortheDeclaration

“Sounds good, I am expecting a bigger Romney win”

Me too. Its all over for Barry except the slow walkin and sad singin.


24 posted on 11/05/2012 4:41:21 AM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: Netz
I think that we are listening to pros like Barone and Rove... men that have NEVER made predictions of a win unless it was true. Rove telegraphed his 2006 loss well before the election... he did not sugar coat it... Barone predicted an obama win... and these men... along with others... have sound reasoning and science on their side. We see the momentum and we see it only on one side... and Sandy has damaged obama more than you can know... 2 good days does not trump 6 days of death, destruction and people receiving nothing from obama but lie after lie. You cannot drink, eat, wear or sleep in a lie. If obama were a sitting Republican president... facing this same exact election... you and the press would be publishing his eulogy.

LLS

25 posted on 11/05/2012 4:42:34 AM PST by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
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To: alisasny

— Gotten into Christie?

Stockholm Syndrome


26 posted on 11/05/2012 4:43:30 AM PST by Surrounded_too
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To: EagleInGA
Agreed 100% and as an American who lives in Israel, I have to tell you that the very prospect of Obama for another 4 years in terrifying for us here. Not only has he stripped the USA of the ability to wage the terror war, he has emasculated the military and pushed Israel into a do or die corner. Islam resurgent via the Islamic Brotherhood is a threat to the planet and Iran is hoping America will re-elect this worse than Carter President. So, we are praying Mitt gets the pick!
27 posted on 11/05/2012 4:46:52 AM PST by Netz (Netz)
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To: goldstategop

Votes cast have to add up to 100%, you cannot vote “undecided” or “present”.


28 posted on 11/05/2012 4:59:45 AM PST by Lonesome in Massachussets (Obama: Brought to you by the letter "O" and the number 16 trillion.)
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To: EagleInGA

Agreed #2.

As someone else said, that this election is even close is a statement on how totally deceived and clueless half our nation is - and that is a much greater problem than the man they support and elected exists.

The man elected by them is a symptom, and we can deal with the symptom occasionally, but if we don’t deal with the root cause of the disease, we are toast. It’s only a matter of time.

What is the disease? Primarily it is that we have abandoned God. Even conservatives (how strong are those who hate us who are against abortion?).

Abandoning God resulted in the takeover of our education system, and then the media.....the only two sources for everything known by almost a majority of our nation.......


29 posted on 11/05/2012 5:10:55 AM PST by Arlis (.)
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To: Melinda in TN

People don’t seem to be tuned in to what is sgoing on up there.

It is a complete mess. One I haven’t seen ever

Those races will be at least interesting.


30 posted on 11/05/2012 5:14:36 AM PST by stanne
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To: RGSpincich
Sal Tessio hedging his bet. We all know how that worked out.

"Can you get me off the hook, Tom? For old times' sake?"

31 posted on 11/05/2012 5:20:24 AM PST by andy58-in-nh (Cogito, ergo armatum sum.)
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To: Georgia Girl 2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W91RCYt94wI


32 posted on 11/05/2012 5:24:43 AM PST by RipSawyer (Free healthcare is worth FAR LESS than it costs.)
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To: USS Alaska

Ha, ha, I like your math! If you lived near me, I would treat you to lunch at Chick Fil A tomorrow. :-)


33 posted on 11/05/2012 11:35:51 AM PST by Pining_4_TX ( The state is the great fiction by which everybody seeks to live at the expense of everybody else. ~)
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To: Pining_4_TX
No lunch tomorrow, I'll be poll watching in W PA in a RAT's nest.

Hopefully, we will prevent some fraud, and if the demonRATS in Philly don't turn out in full force at 110%, we have a good chance to win in PA.

34 posted on 11/05/2012 6:24:43 PM PST by USS Alaska (Nuke the terrorist savages, start today.)
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