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Barone: Romney wins, handily
Politico ^ | 11/3/12 5:22 PM EST | CHARLES MAHTESIAN

Posted on 11/04/2012 2:02:44 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach

Michael Barone, a senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner and co-author of the Almanac of American Politics, goes out on a limb and predicts victory for Mitt Romney – by a margin of nearly 100 electoral votes.

Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.

But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery -- Friday's jobs report showed an unemployment uptick.

Also, both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don't identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney.

That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting -- and about their candidate -- than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so…

Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.

In Barone’s estimation, Romney essentially sweeps the swing states, with the exception of Nevada, and even picks up Pennsylvania.

Michael’s views have drifted rightward over the years and he's become a prominent conservative voice,

(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: brokenglass; election2012; riggedpolls; romney

1 posted on 11/04/2012 2:02:45 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: All

It is all about turnout.


2 posted on 11/04/2012 2:03:44 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Yes. GOTV.

I hope its a landslide for Mitt even though I “officially” say he gets 296 EV’s

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2954764/posts


3 posted on 11/04/2012 2:05:34 PM PST by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Dear Lord make it so!!!


4 posted on 11/04/2012 2:07:05 PM PST by Michigander222
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To: GeronL

I feel better....back later!


5 posted on 11/04/2012 2:08:19 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

That is right. NO CHICKEN COUNTING!! Play like you are down to your last strike!


6 posted on 11/04/2012 2:17:12 PM PST by getarope (I have come here to chew bubble gum and kick ass, and I am all out of bubble gum!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; All

Despite the polling in Senate races, does a Romney victory help the chances that we may also have a chance to win the Senate?


7 posted on 11/04/2012 2:21:50 PM PST by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: tsowellfan

Enthusiasm on the right should mean decent coattails for Republican candidates down-ballot. Fingers crossed we get a lot of people voting straight “R” ticket as a middle finger gesture to the Marxists on the left, regardless of what they think of each individual Republican candidate. If the R candidate sucks, boot them in the mid-term. Better yet, primary them in the mid-term.


8 posted on 11/04/2012 2:35:08 PM PST by Two Kids' Dad (((( America or 0bama. You can't choose both. ))))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Romney 315, Obama 223

I'll take it, but I love to have Romney win by at least 100 EV.

9 posted on 11/04/2012 2:40:38 PM PST by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; Jim Robinson; All
Have you all seen this?

Romney Supporters Banned From Free Republic

10 posted on 11/04/2012 2:46:04 PM PST by Larousse2 (The price of Freedom is Eternal Vigilance. ~ Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
0bummer =
11 posted on 11/04/2012 2:47:02 PM PST by carriage_hill ("0bummer's a towering figure" - even a Garden Gnome casts a long shadow at sunset.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Barone is a guy I trust, so this is encouraging, but I personally don’t see a Romney electoral blowout.

I do think Romney can still pull off a close win. To do so, he needs to take at least 90 EVs from Obama.

I feel very confident in him taking IN, NC, and FL from Obama’s tally last time. That adds 55 EVs for Romney.

I also feel good about both VA and CO. That adds 22 more, and means Romney needs 13 more EVs to win.

The easiest path is through Ohio, and while most every poll shows Obama with a lead, my gut feel is that Romney wins a close one here and thus wins the election. That would provide a margin of 275 - 263.

Next most likely to fall to us are WI and NH. Get them both and we add 14 more giving Romney 289 - 249.

That, IMO, is the best we are going to do on Tuesday. Would love to be wrong and see states like PA, NV, and MI go our way as well, but the RAT presence is deep there, and they are going to get their vote out at a pretty good rate.

Still, I would be thrilled with 275 EVs. Getting there all comes down to Ohio.

Don’t let us down Buckeyes!!!!!


12 posted on 11/04/2012 2:50:21 PM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Larousse2

That was true up until well after Ryan was chosen. It may be a reason Rasmussen does not show Mitt getting all the repulican vote.


13 posted on 11/04/2012 3:41:05 PM PST by Sans-Culotte ( Pray for Obama- Psalm 109:8)
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To: Larousse2; Jim Robinson

Jim hasn’t dumped me yet.. nor have I seen any evidence of suppressing the Pro Romney threads..

We all know what Jim thinks, by his own words, and he still provides us with a invitation to use his website.. Thanks again Jim, for this opportunity.. Carlo


14 posted on 11/04/2012 4:49:16 PM PST by carlo3b (Less Government, more Fiber..)
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To: Larousse2

That story is over a year old now. Things have changed significantly.


15 posted on 11/04/2012 5:10:35 PM PST by sargon
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To: Two Kids' Dad
If the R candidate sucks, boot them in the mid-term. Better yet, primary them in the mid-term.

Exactly!

16 posted on 11/04/2012 5:42:19 PM PST by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: tsowellfan

I hate to overemphasize the similarities, but this feels so much like 1980. In that contest, Reagan swept in a R Senate majority for the first time in eons. It held for 6 years and has gone back and forth ever since. Before 1980 it had become pretty inconceivable to have a R Senate majority.


17 posted on 11/04/2012 5:52:49 PM PST by EDINVA (I)
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To: EDINVA

Interesting, what you said.

I wonder if there are any states not yet leaning Romney but with a Republican candidate for Senate or House that’s attracting republican voters to the polls who will also vote for Romney while they’re there.

Then we have local issues in some states such as gay marriage...etc.


18 posted on 11/04/2012 6:02:40 PM PST by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: tsowellfan

I haven’t followed the Senate races this year as I have in the past so I don’t know of any situation where the R Senatorial candidate is running ahead of Romney.

On one of the MN threads there was reference to two issues on the ballot there beyond POTUS, one was gay marriage and I’m drawing a blank on the other. That would be bringing out more conservative “values voters.” Not sure I believe there’s much hope for MN but ya never know.


19 posted on 11/04/2012 8:35:26 PM PST by EDINVA
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To: Larousse2
Things change... so what is your point? What choice do we have? We have a Marxist Muslim sympathizing traitor and a man we don't necessarily agree with but who appears to be running for president out of love for his country.
20 posted on 11/04/2012 9:39:08 PM PST by fireman15 (Check your facts before making ignorant statements.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

I think I had it at 330 Romney. Will recalc tomorrow.


21 posted on 11/04/2012 9:41:03 PM PST by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: fireman15

I just share. I typically don’t do Editorials.


22 posted on 11/05/2012 5:22:23 AM PST by Larousse2 (The price of Freedom is Eternal Vigilance. ~ Thomas Jefferson)
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To: carlo3b

I think certain entities are trying to discredit FR.


23 posted on 11/05/2012 5:25:00 AM PST by Larousse2 (The price of Freedom is Eternal Vigilance. ~ Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Sans-Culotte

I don’t trust many of the Pollsters!


24 posted on 11/05/2012 5:26:38 AM PST by Larousse2 (The price of Freedom is Eternal Vigilance. ~ Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Larousse2; Jim Robinson; All
.


Below is my Facebook response and commentary regarding the Politico article ...


Free Republic's Jim Robinson is absolutely CORRECT about "Myth Romney".

I accurately labeled Romney as a Pathological Political Liar in an NBC News interview uring the 2012 GOP Tampa Convention.

However, I will vote for Romney-Ryan.

Why ?

It is "theoretically possible" that "Severely Conservative" Myth Romney will actually KEEP some of his 2012 campaign promises, including defunding Planned Parenthood.

If so, that at least one (1.0000) innocent child will be spared from an abortion doctor's murderous hand.

I reluctantly vote for Myth Romney in hopes that the one child is saved.

Free Republic is the BEST conservative site in the United States, period.

Jim Robinson is a genuine Patriot of the likes of Sam Adams.

As as Free Republic member since 1996, I speak with aurthority as the the sterling character of this website.

Patton@Bastogne



=====================================


God Bless America ... God Bless Free Republic ...



And to Jim Robinson, personally ...

"May God and His Angels Guard Your Sacred Throne, and Make You Long Become It ..."

Shakespeare, Henry V, Act I, Scene I



.
25 posted on 11/05/2012 5:34:41 AM PST by Patton@Bastogne (Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin will DEFEAT the Obama-Romney Socialist Gay-Marriage Axis of Evil)
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To: carriage_hill
BURNT toast?


26 posted on 11/05/2012 5:38:21 AM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: MrB

LOL! (I knew that one was coming, after I posted it.)


27 posted on 11/05/2012 8:41:23 AM PST by carriage_hill ("0bummer's a towering figure" - even a Garden Gnome casts a long shadow at sunset.)
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To: Jet Jaguar
Posted this today:

The End of Our National Tragedy? Romney Takes Lead in Final Rasmussen Poll ( Gallup also)

28 posted on 11/05/2012 12:22:47 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

BTTT


29 posted on 11/05/2012 5:45:42 PM PST by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Deficits of over a TRILLION dollars a year, stagnant wages, assaults on religion and the private sector, nationalization of the healthcare industry, and yet the demented communist in the White House still has the vote of 48-50% of the US population and might still win.

What that means is that this Republic will fall, but not before the Washingtonians rob every last dime from working Americans

The Republican Party is nothing more than a bunch of degenerate blue blood banker country clubbers who waged war against the sons of the Founders in 1861 and murdered the Republic via imposition of Universal Suffrage via Constitutional Amendment.

They have since conspired with the communist faction of their fellow Washingtonians to make slaves of the working man outside of DC, under penalty of imprisonment via the IRS and the DOJ.

The Washingtonians have got it figured out, and basically fight every 4 years over control of the cash extorted from the working class.

The RNC and their greedy pulled back wives aren’t much different than the DNC commies, it’s all a scam.


30 posted on 11/05/2012 5:48:09 PM PST by Rome2000 (NO ONE IN ROMNEYS DIRECT LINE HAS EVER SERVED THE UNITED STATES IN UNIFORM 170 YEARS)
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