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New Florida Poll: Mitt Romney maintains lead over Obama, 51-45
Miami Herald ^ | 11-2

Posted on 11/02/2012 9:02:00 PM PDT by Arthurio

BY MARC CAPUTO MCAPUTO@MIAMIHERALD.COM

Mitt Romney has maintained a solid lead over President Barack Obama in the latest Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll of likely voters who favor the Republican by six percentage points.

Romney’s strengths: independent voters and more crossover support from Democrats relative to the Republicans who back Obama, according to the survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

Romney’s crossover appeal is fueled by strong support in rural North Florida, a conservative bastion where a relatively high percentage of Democrats often vote Republican in presidential election years.

“I’m pretty convinced Romney’s going to win Florida,” said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, who conducted the 800-likely voter survey from Tuesday through Thursday.

“Will it be fivepoints? Maybe. Will it be three points? Possibly,” Coker said, of what he expects Romney’s margin will be. “I don’t think it’s going to be a recount … I don’t think we’re going to have a recount-race here.”

Romney is winning handily among men, marginally losing with women voters and has outsized support among non-Hispanic whites. He’s essentially winning on the issues as well: the economy, Medicare, foreign policy and looking out for the middle-class.

Coker noted the poll results are essentially unchanged from last month, when Romney led by a point more after he crushed Obama in their first debate.

The October poll and this one, which have error margins of 3.5 percent, were conducted for The Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald as well as the Tampa Bay Times, Bay News 9 and Central Florida News 13.

Although the latest survey shows Romney comfortably ahead 51-45 percent in Florida, the Republican can’t rest easy. Other polls show a tighter race, although they use a different method of polling than that of Mason-Dixon, a Florida-based firm.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/02/3080246/poll-mitt-romney-maintains-lead.html#storylink=cpy

(Excerpt) Read more at miamiherald.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; fl2012

1 posted on 11/02/2012 9:02:06 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

I guess the pollsters who pulled out of Florida were right after all.

I’m not so sure about NC though, I have seen lots of stories about “faulty” voting machines.


2 posted on 11/02/2012 9:03:28 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: Arthurio

Some really good news tonight. Pennsylvania and Florida looking good. Romney’s huge Ohio crowd. Very good.


3 posted on 11/02/2012 9:07:25 PM PDT by conservativepoet
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To: Arthurio

Florida is Romney/Ryan Country!


4 posted on 11/02/2012 9:09:25 PM PDT by ConservativeLawyer (After four years of Obama, this country could use some R & R.)
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To: GeronL

NC and FL will be fine. This is coming down to VA and OH. CO will be close, and combine that with IA or NH and there is some insurance in case we win OH but lose in VA. I think Obama has the edge in WI, but not out of reach. PA and MI are a bit of a stretch IMO unless there is a weekend Bengazi bombshell or Sandy goes sour.


5 posted on 11/02/2012 9:14:57 PM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: Arthurio
It's going to be a great weekend. Rake some leaves, watch some football and vote on Tuesday!

Saw some video of Mitt and Ann Romney at the Ohio rally tonight. They had the look of winners. Not the slumped shoulders and forced "Jerry Sandusky" smiles that John McCain had four years ago at this time as he went through the motions of his final rallies.

Evidently Mitt's team had some very good news for him today with respect to the internals.

6 posted on 11/02/2012 9:17:14 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: conservativepoet

How is PA looking good? I couldnt find anything except a 3 week old poll by an unknown outfit.


7 posted on 11/02/2012 9:18:24 PM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: wolfman23601

Check out breaking news. Romney leading by 4 in Pennsylvania.


8 posted on 11/02/2012 9:20:45 PM PDT by conservativepoet
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To: wolfman23601

That Poll Pick the Senate 2010 Election on the nose and was very close in the 2008 Presidential election


9 posted on 11/02/2012 9:21:24 PM PDT by scooby321 (AMS)
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To: scooby321

Marist has O up 2 in FL (and up 6 in OH). but with huge D+ samples. OH sample is D+9, double 2008. Their pollster claiming their poll more accurate than Mason Dixon (larger sample size).


10 posted on 11/02/2012 9:23:27 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: conservativepoet

Check out breaking news. Romney leading by 4 in Pennsylvania.
_________________________________

Poll released tonight. They are a very reliable group.


11 posted on 11/02/2012 9:23:58 PM PDT by conservativepoet
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To: conservativepoet

Wow, missed that. Id feel a little better if Ras didn’t have O+6 in PA, but at least there is some hope.


12 posted on 11/02/2012 9:25:08 PM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: gswilder

CNN immediately tweets the Marist results, ignoring Mason Dixon. LOL.

I am very confident Romney is going to win it all. But some pollsters going some splaining to do come Wednesday.


13 posted on 11/02/2012 9:25:15 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: Arthurio

Things are looking awsome!


14 posted on 11/02/2012 9:25:48 PM PDT by IsaacDian
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To: wolfman23601

I think this is for real and that’s why Romney has focused resources on Pennsylvania. Even the NYT’s admitted today that Romney is doing pretty good in Pennsylvania.


15 posted on 11/02/2012 9:28:34 PM PDT by conservativepoet
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To: GeronL

No fear about NC - blowout by 300 thousand votes. My wife ran across a minor irregularity and R/R attorney was at our door within the hour. He says they have had relatively little trouble in NC, and have had enough monitors to handle them.


16 posted on 11/02/2012 9:34:21 PM PDT by C. Edmund Wright ("GONE: The Four Year Wave That Rocked The Bubble" due out Nov 8th)
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To: gswilder

Mason Dixon actually uses voter registration lists to poll. I wonder if this fails to take into account Democrat voter fraud?


17 posted on 11/02/2012 9:37:13 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: C. Edmund Wright

good to hear


18 posted on 11/02/2012 9:41:43 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: Arthurio

Voter registration is tight in florida.


19 posted on 11/02/2012 9:46:27 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Arthurio
I hope that the Secret Service is protecting Romney carefully.

When the Dims get a load of a Romney landslide they are going to go nuts.

A few will probably start rioting. We can expect assassination plots. Self emulations. It may be on the scale of a Zombie Apocalypse. The rage will be like Sandy.

We must be prepared.


20 posted on 11/02/2012 9:46:57 PM PDT by garjog (We do not want another four more years of the last four years.)
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To: wolfman23601

Here’s the other thing. Yesterday Romney announced he’d be campaigning in PA on Sunday. Now we know these campaigns shell out millions of dollars for the best pollsters.

When that was announced I thought... they know something we don’t. Then today THIS news about PA comes out. I think Romney may have a real shot there...


21 posted on 11/02/2012 9:47:55 PM PDT by ConservativeMan55
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To: wolfman23601

What’s Rasmussen’s record with state polling? We know he’s pretty accurate with the general election but state polling is a different monster.


22 posted on 11/02/2012 9:49:16 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: wolfman23601

Oh and if Romney was really 6 pts or more behind in PA I don’t think he’d be wasting one minute there this last week.


23 posted on 11/02/2012 9:52:23 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: snarkytart

Not sure, but other than PA, his results are among the more favorable.


24 posted on 11/02/2012 9:53:08 PM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: snarkytart

Obviously he thinks it is in play. Obama and his pollsters dont seem to think it is play. Someone is right and someone isnt. PA would be huge. Get that and VA and the election is over regardless of OH, WI, IA, or NH. Would be a huge steal. I also wonder if NJ may be winnable if half the state is still out of power and the NY media turning on the government.


25 posted on 11/02/2012 9:59:13 PM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: Arthurio; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; ...

Poll ping.


26 posted on 11/02/2012 10:00:06 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: Arthurio

The final tally in Florida will be a blowout. I early voted yesterday and the lines of people are very long, very pro-Romney. Lots of Benghazi related signs, heavy presence of Jewish Republicans demonstrating on Obama’s treatment of Israel.

Expect Romney to take 53% of the FL vote at least. I hope it’s enough for some coattails. We need enough to pull Connie Mack over the finish line and knock out the Obama rubber stamp astronut, Bill Nelson. Locally we need Adam Hasner to win Allen West’s previous seat here in my district, and West to take the next seat north of us. He is in a bloody battle with a GOP convert to the donkeys. West is blasting with both barrels and should win.

All in all, FL will be very Red next week!


27 posted on 11/02/2012 10:00:42 PM PDT by untwist
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To: wolfman23601

I don’t think R is gonna win PA with tbh. I do think he’s probably only down about 3 or 4 points. Enough to make him go for it.


28 posted on 11/02/2012 10:20:37 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Arthurio

I think this is gonna be a Romney landslide, although I’m still a Sarah fan.


29 posted on 11/02/2012 11:39:21 PM PDT by BerryDingle (I know how to deal with communists, I still wear their scars on my back from Hollywood-Ronald Reagan)
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To: untwist

30 posted on 11/03/2012 12:02:07 AM PDT by BerryDingle (I know how to deal with communists, I still wear their scars on my back from Hollywood-Ronald Reagan)
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To: C. Edmund Wright
No fear about NC - blowout by 300 thousand votes. My wife ran across a minor irregularity and R/R attorney was at our door within the hour. He says they have had relatively little trouble in NC, and have had enough monitors to handle them.

Wow, that makes me breathe a little easier. Thanks for that piece of news.

31 posted on 11/03/2012 2:33:21 AM PDT by JustaCowgirl (Mitt Romney -- Obama asks for votes for revenge, I ask for votes for love of country)
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To: gswilder
Mason Dixon has a track record better than Marist and not only that other polling firm left FL, NC, and VA a couple of weeks ago because Romney had a solid lead and it wasn't fluctuating at ALL.

CNN/MARIST is full of crap. Fortunately for them hardly anybody remembers the state polls after an election to hold them responsible for agenda driven polls.

32 posted on 11/03/2012 2:52:46 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: BerryDingle

What a good laugh this early morn!


33 posted on 11/03/2012 3:06:36 AM PDT by Mean Maryjean
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To: garjog
Self immolation, FRiend.

Technically, everybody self-emulates.

34 posted on 11/03/2012 3:28:14 AM PDT by agere_contra ("Government creates nothing" - Romney, 2012)
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To: gswilder

Lee Miringoff, who runs the Marist Poll, is a leftie. According to Open Secrets, his wife, who is a sociology professor at uber liberal Vassar College, is also a leftie and a big Obama supporter.


35 posted on 11/03/2012 4:21:55 AM PDT by Labyrinthos
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To: Arthurio; All

Earlier:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/264521-poll-romney-up-with-fla-voters-in-crucial-i-4-corridor-

“Poll: Romney up in key I-4 corridor in Florida”

“A new poll [Oct. 29, 2012] shows Mitt Romney holding the edge among voters in a key region of central Florida, which could help swing the critical battleground state.

A Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 survey released Sunday shows Romney winning 51 percent support to Obama’s 45 among registered voters along Florida’s I-4 corridor. .......”


36 posted on 11/03/2012 4:25:52 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: GeronL

The voting machines used in Durham don’t allow you to see how it registers your vote. You use a pencil to fill in the space and as you leave, it is put through the same machine everyone else uses in the polling location.

So who knows how it is calibrated.


37 posted on 11/03/2012 5:02:27 AM PDT by FR_addict
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To: snarkytart

Rasmussen is one of the best for national but not too good for state polls. His polling sample sizes are fairly small which leaves too much margin of error. However his state polling doesn’t lean one way or the other. In other words although not too occur accurate it is not biased. The Susq. poll is known to be quite accurate though.


38 posted on 11/03/2012 5:45:25 AM PDT by trackman
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To: Arthurio

I’ll tell you what, this liberal woman vote is really starting to tick me off.

They scream about being strong, independent, self-reliant women who don’t need men.

But when it’s time to vote, what do they do?

They go running for the protection of their sugar daddy. But what they don’t realize is that their sugar daddy is really a clever pimp who keeps them enslaved just as they keep minorities enslaved through socialist economics.

Disgusting.


39 posted on 11/03/2012 6:04:29 AM PDT by Ghost of Philip Marlowe (Prepare for survival.)
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To: Arthurio; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; ...
Write up

O+0.05% - Current RCP Average
O+0.76% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.02% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.26% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.30% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.04% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

Yesterday we had a 1.2% drop in Rasmussen that lead to a collective freak out by all the nervous poll junkies, because it was reported as a tie. Later in the day, ABC/WaPo posted a gain for Romney. The most important part of the ABC/WaPo poll was Independent preference moving back to +8 and half of the 2% undecideds making up their mind and committing to Romney.

The "second look at Obama" is now over, and we won't seeing any more movement toward him in the polls. There are four reasons for this:

The bump he was getting from Sandy is now over, and it is becoming a liability as he must campaign while everyone is seeing people homeless and in gas lines. A lot of people are now asking why FEMA can't get gasoline into New Jersey and shelters into Staten Island. The excuse that it isn't FEMA's job isn't going to work after Obama's bold statements during his photo ops. Bloomberg did Obama no favors with the NYC Marathon stupidity.

Benghazi is now back into the news as the CIA releases timelines that raise more questions than they answer. Additionally, having two GOP Senators succeed in getting access to the prime suspect in 2 days, while the Government couldn't for 7 weeks makes Obama look ineffectual. Minds have now been made up. The final weekend is about turning out your base and organization. There are no opportunities left to change voter minds.

The difference in energy levels and enthusiasm between the two campaigns is palpable. Obama was barely able to draw 2,800 in Ohio in one of his strongholds yesterday. Romney drew 40,000 outdoors in the cold in Ohio. On Saturday, Ryan will be in Minnesota. On Sunday Romney will have a huge crowd in Bucks County, PA. The visual contrast between the campaigns is impossible to ignore.

In my opinion, there are three possible election scenarios that could play out on Tuesday. In only one of them does Obama have a chance of winning.

D+3: The least likely scenario is that Democrats turnout at 3% higher than Republicans. This is the "split the difference" scenario that pundits have been using all year. Take the Obama enthusiasm from 2008 and the GOP enthusiasm from 2010 and assume a turnout between them. This is now very unlikely to occur. We have specific evidence that the GOP 2010 enthusiasm is at or above 2010 levels. Obama's early voting numbers are crashing and he can't fill a venue, signs that Democrat enthusiasm isn't there. Finally Independents are supporting Romney by the same rate they supported the GOP in 2010. However, even with this scenario, Romney leads by 2 points and would get a 50-48 win. The only way that Obama could win is through massive voter fraud. This would require the production of 2,600,000 fraudulent votes and would very likely be detected. We would have a constitutional crisis. In this model, Romney wins close races in Ohio, Colorado, and Florida, winning 275 electoral votes.

Even: I view this turnout model to be the most likely. Obama has a small lead in early voting that is overwhelmed by GOP turnout on Tuesday. Obama is still able to get his core supporters to the polls, but it isn't enough to compensate for a very fired up GOP base and the Independents. One thing to keep in mind is that the Rasmussen and Gallup party preference polls are real. They really do show, at this point in time, that the Republicans hold a 1 to 3 point advantage in party identification. In this model, both parties get their bases to the polls, and the GOP misses just slightly their high water mark. In this scenario, Romney leads by over 4 points, and would win 51-47. He takes OH, CO, FL, IA, NH, WI, and PA, winning 315 electoral votes.

R+3: After watching the Romney rally in Ohio, I am seeing this result as much more possible. If Romney's energy continues to build, and Obama continues to make gaffes like "revenge voting", then we see massive turnout on Tuesday. The GOP gets all of the self identified Republicans, and the reports that Obama has been cannibalizing his election day voters turns out to be true. In this scenario, Romney wins by over 6, with a 52-46 final tally or better. This would be a similar result to the 1988 election. Romney would win OH, CO, FL, IA, NH, WI, PA, NV, OR, and ME-2 for 329 electoral votes. He would also have a good shot at winning MN and MI.


40 posted on 11/03/2012 6:38:53 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: agere_contra

“Self immolation, FRiend.

Technically, everybody self-emulates. “

I stand corrected. Spell check program can’t read my mind — yet.


41 posted on 11/03/2012 10:51:14 AM PDT by garjog (We do not want another four more years of the last four years.)
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To: Joe Brower

Ping!


42 posted on 11/03/2012 11:34:08 AM PDT by Absolutely Nobama (The Doomsday Clock is at 11:59:00......tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock.....)
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To: Joe Brower

Ping!


43 posted on 11/03/2012 11:34:26 AM PDT by Absolutely Nobama (The Doomsday Clock is at 11:59:00......tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock.....)
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To: garjog

yeah lol! but then again does the average lib even know how to use a gun of any kind? let alone know how to load it?


44 posted on 11/03/2012 4:26:42 PM PDT by BrianE ("Dead at 25 buried at 65 the average American" - Benjamin Franklin 1776)
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To: Perdogg

A well thought out analysis!


45 posted on 11/03/2012 5:55:48 PM PDT by ConservativeMind ("Humane" = "Don't pen up pets or eat meat, but allow infanticide, abortion, and euthanasia.")
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To: ConservativeMind

Sounds like some polls are reporting oBoma the Great is in trouble on Tuesday. Wonder how Obama will take it, if he is declared the loser?


46 posted on 11/03/2012 6:03:29 PM PDT by FreedBird
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To: FreedBird
Wonder how Obama will take it, if he is declared the loser?


47 posted on 11/03/2012 6:05:30 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

I just posted this on another thread- but I’ll say it again. I’ve been working the phones here in the Orlando area for weeks...the closer we get- the better Romney is doing.

On my drive to work every day I drive through poor, middle class and wealthy neighborhoods..Romney signs are EVERYWHERE- across all economic groups. I have seen ONE Obama sign. EVERYWHERE I see cars with Romney stickers- very few O.

In 08 there were O signs EVERYWHERE.


48 posted on 11/03/2012 6:12:29 PM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet)
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