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VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: New numbers even more troubling for Obama
Twitter ^ | 11/01/12 | Dave Wasserman

Posted on 11/01/2012 6:55:46 AM PDT by TonyInOhio

I've been following Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report on Twitter. He has been updating the tallies of the early vote in Virginia, and what he is finding is more and more bad news for Obama:

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Today's new 10/31 numbers even more troubling for Obama. His best counties way off '08 pace

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Turnout down 13.6% in Obama '08 localities, vs. just 1.1% in McCain '08 (statewide down 9.2%)

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE 10/31: 185,489 ballots cast in Obama localities (214,783 by this pt. in '08), 115,908 in McCain (117,224 in '08)

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Even more worrisome for O...in Kerry '04 localities (hardcore D places), turnout -18.1% vs. '08 (only -1.7% in Bush)

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Obama strongholds Arlington -20.0%, Fairfax - 20.9%, Richmond -13.7% (vs. just -9.2% statewide). Hmm..


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; absentee; va2012; virginia
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PPP, Marist, Quinnipiac, and other media pollsters are based their numbers on the assumption that turnout for Obama will equal or exceed his 2008 performance. Yet, hard data from real voting shows that he isn't coming close to matching his 2008 effort. Similar results apply in Ohio, Colorado, and Wisconsin.

Before you panic about poll numbers keep this in mind - they don't reflect reality on the ground.

1 posted on 11/01/2012 6:55:51 AM PDT by TonyInOhio
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To: TonyInOhio
More:

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: In Romney strongholds, enthusiasm up. Hanover (33.1% Obama) turnout up 6.2%, Buchanan (coal country) up 14.5% vs. '08

2 posted on 11/01/2012 6:56:46 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (O-H-I-O, Barry - misspell our name and we kick you out!)
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To: TonyInOhio

It is early AB not EV


3 posted on 11/01/2012 6:57:22 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: TonyInOhio
One more:

VA EARLY VOTE: By no means does this spreadsheet spell doom for Obama in VA, it just shows '12 ain't at all '08

But the pollsters think it is - in fact, they think it is *better* than 2008!

4 posted on 11/01/2012 6:58:05 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (O-H-I-O, Barry - misspell our name and we kick you out!)
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To: Perdogg
It is early AB not EV

Yes, I know, but I'm using Wasserman's term. Also, votes are votes, and turnout is turnout. :)

5 posted on 11/01/2012 6:59:32 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (O-H-I-O, Barry - misspell our name and we kick you out!)
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To: TonyInOhio

Karl Rove was on Fox this morning. According to his numbers There have been ~186,000 fewer Dem voters then this time in 2008. While there have been 75,000 MORE GOP voters.

Obama won Ohio last time by approx 260,000 votes, which is the current spread.


6 posted on 11/01/2012 7:02:34 AM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
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To: TonyInOhio

It’s pretty obvious now the wheels are coming off the cooked polls train. They’ve survived by speculation and conjecture. The hard numbers are difficult to explain.

I’m so looking forward to next Tuesday and hearing the BS.


7 posted on 11/01/2012 7:04:16 AM PDT by ImJustAnotherOkie (zerogottago)
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To: TonyInOhio

I’ve ben working the phones for Romney. This last week it’s all GOTV calls and I gotta tell you...Romney voters are ALL anxious to vote, although few are willing to vote early (myself included).


8 posted on 11/01/2012 7:05:43 AM PDT by pgkdan (A vote for anyone but Romney is a vote for obama. GO MITT!!)
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To: driftdiver
Obama won Ohio last time by approx 260,000 votes, which is the current spread.

You mean that Obama's 260,000 margin from 2008 has been wiped out in the early voting, so the current spread is close to zero, right?

9 posted on 11/01/2012 7:05:50 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (O-H-I-O, Barry - misspell our name and we kick you out!)
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To: TonyInOhio
Yes, I know, but I'm using Wasserman's term. Also, votes are votes, and turnout is turnout. :)

My question is, are the comparisons seen here 2012 AB vs 2008 AB+EV or AB vs AB only. Hoping we're not seeing an apples and oranges comparison.

10 posted on 11/01/2012 7:06:02 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
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To: driftdiver

>> According to his numbers There have been ~186,000 fewer Dem voters then this time in 2008. While there have been 75,000 MORE GOP voters.

Ohio? Virginia? Or ???

Thx


11 posted on 11/01/2012 7:06:04 AM PDT by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: TonyInOhio
What "early vote"?? Virginia doesn't have early voting stations, only absentee ballots permitted if and only if the government decides you have a good enough excuse.

As an aside, the Hurricane Sandy mess is a perfect illustration of why all states should have at least two weeks of full early voting, thus insuring against any such predictable but not avoidable disruptions affecting the election.

12 posted on 11/01/2012 7:07:24 AM PDT by stroll
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To: TonyInOhio
Gotta love the subtle headline bias.

These results are "troubling for 0bama" ... 0bama is the central figure, the 'hero'.

Why are these results not presented as "reassuring for Romney"?

13 posted on 11/01/2012 7:07:24 AM PDT by ArrogantBustard (Western Civilization is Aborting, Buggering, and Contracepting itself out of existence.)
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To: Nervous Tick

Sorry that was Ohio, but its consistent with VA it seems.

Message being that dem voter turnout is way down, GOP voter turnout is up.


14 posted on 11/01/2012 7:07:30 AM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
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To: TonyInOhio
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE 10/31: 185,489 ballots cast in Obama localities (214,783 by this pt. in '08), 115,908 in McCain (117,224 in '08)

That might be down but not out...we have to beat his numbers before hand to make up for the built-in fraud that's coming our way...Dems have lawyered-up in all the swing states and we may not have a winner next Wednesday.

15 posted on 11/01/2012 7:08:34 AM PDT by MHT
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To: ImJustAnotherOkie

Obama isnt’ visiting VA or CO last weekend of campaing, just OHIO, IA and WIA(Thinking he is writing off OH and CO).. Romney is going VA, OH WI and TDB for Sunday.. possibly MI????


16 posted on 11/01/2012 7:08:38 AM PDT by scbison
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To: Perdogg
It is early in-person AB. I have already voted along with the rest of my family here in Fairfax County. As a poll observer and handing out voting materials at a satellite polling location in McLean, something I also did in 2008, I am astounded that the Reps are holding even if not surpassing the Dems. There are a surprisingly significant number of young people voting Rep along with the usual predominance of seniors.

And Asians are also voting Rep this time around compared to 2008. Very encouraging. There is no doubt that our people are more motivated and enthusiastic. We are averaging about 400 absentee in-person ballots a day since it started on October 17 at the satellite locations. The voting at the Government Center started a few weeks earlier. From Rep officials I am hearing that we are even if not a little bit ahead of the Dems in early voting countywide. Obama won Fairfax County, the largest in the state, by 110,000 votes. If we can break about even here, Romney will easily win the state. So far, so good. Three more days of early voting.

17 posted on 11/01/2012 7:09:49 AM PDT by kabar
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To: ScottinVA
My question is, are the comparisons seen here 2012 AB vs 2008 AB+EV or AB vs AB only

Wasserman is doing direct comparison with 2008, so I assume it is AB vs. AB only. Did VA have early (non-absentee) voting in 2008? I can't imagine him not mentioning it, if so.

18 posted on 11/01/2012 7:10:00 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (O-H-I-O, Barry - misspell our name and we kick you out!)
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To: driftdiver

>> Message being that dem voter turnout is way down, GOP voter turnout is up.

Very cool!

Thanks.


19 posted on 11/01/2012 7:10:12 AM PDT by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: kabar
Thanks for the encouraging report!

I posted this info mostly to help point out the obvious bias in the media polling, which I suspect will be over the top this weekend. The MSM wants you discouraged, but all of the information coming out from early and absentee voting in the states Romney needs to win shows him holding his own or surpassing Obama. Meaning: he wins!

20 posted on 11/01/2012 7:15:22 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (O-H-I-O, Barry - misspell our name and we kick you out!)
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