[TonyInOhio]

Obama won Ohio last time by approx 260,000 votes, which is the current spread.

You mean that Obama's 260,000 margin from 2008 has been wiped out in the early voting, so the current spread is close to zero, right?

[tanknetter]

yes, at face value it means Obamas 2008 advantage is gone.

However the numbers only look at registered Dem and GOP voters. They don’t look at Indies and they don’t account for crossovers. In 2008 a lot of Republicans crossed over and voted for Obama. Few Dems crossed over to vote for McCain.

The question is, what will happen this year? If early voting indies are going overwhelmingly to Romney and the crossover situation from 2008 is reversed, Romney may already have an insurmountable lead in OH.

That’s somewhat informed speculation on my part,we’ll only know the truth on election day and my fingers are definitely crossed.

[GilGil]

That is correct.