Posted on 10/30/2012 4:23:23 PM PDT by Arthurio
Before Superstorm Sandy put the presidential race on pause, President Obama held just a one-point lead over Mitt Romney nationally, according to a new CBS News/ New York Times poll, while voters continue to see Romney as stronger on the economy.
In the final days of the campaign, the storm may have changed the dynamics of the race, giving Mr. Obama a chance to display presidential leadership while compelling both the president and Romney to give up valuable days on the campaign trail. Just ahead of Sandy's arrival, however, the presidential race remained close, with Mr. Obama leading Romney among likely voters 48 percent to 47 percent, within the poll's three-point margin of error. The survey was conducted Oct. 25-28, while the storm made landfall in New Jersey on Oct. 29.
With just a week to go before the election, 10 percent of likely voters are still uncommitted, saying they are either undecided or could change their minds about who to vote for. Enthusiasm about voting is higher among Romney's supporters, 68 percent of whom say they are very excited about voting. Among Mr. Obama's supporters, 59 percent say they are very excited. Nearly eight in 10 likely voters now claim to be paying a lot of attention to the campaign, including similar percentages of Obama and Romney voters.
There is still a gender gap in the race: women support the president, 52 percent to 44 percent, while men support Romney, 51 percent to 44 percent. And while each candidate gets strong support from their respective political parties, Romney now holds a 12-point lead among the swing voting group of independents (51 percent to 39 percent). Romney retains the support of white voters, while the President enjoys strong support from non-whites.
(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...
What "irrational exuberance" in 2008?
From early October on, did anybody actually believe the bumbling McCain had a chance?
But, this year, there are three reasons for some very rational exuberance:
1. Just about every poll has Romney leading the independents by double-digits.
2. Just about every poll measures Republican enthusiasm as higher than the Democrats -- again, by double-digits.
3. Just about every poll has the Democrat party ID at or above 2008. Meaning they are understating Republican voters by...double-digits.
Do you really think D turnout will be +7-to-9 points higher than R turnout, like it was in 2008?
The only way that is even possible is if young people and minorities vote at even higher rates than they did in 2008.
While it is possible, it is unlikely. This is no longer a "historic" election and many of those who wanted to be part of such an event will sit this one out.
Republicans on the other hand are energized like never before. The MSM seems to believe there just aren't enough of us left to decide elections anymore, I think they are going to be shocked to see just how big our numbers are and how much fight we still have left in our tanks.
If this site wasn’t so god awful slow I’d go back and pull some threads from 2008. But anyway... I remember a great deal of people sayi g how wrong the polls were and how McCain was going to pull it out. But when Obama was renting a whole park in Chicago and McCain had half a ballroom in Arizona that’s when it set in for me that McCain knew it was over.
I’d say your memory is selective. Some threads exist, but not many.
There were a few FReepers holding out hope based on the IBD / TIPP poll that kept showing McCain only a couple of points down, but that was the closest he got in any poll in October. When IBD / TIPP also showed Obama pulling into a comfortable lead, it was clear to all but the smallest of minorities that it was going to be the Democrats’ year.
Sure there were still some cheerleading posts, and GOTV posts, but “exuberance” was something in critically short supply.
This year, Obama is behind in almost all of the national polls. The state polls present a slightly better picture for him, but even there he is under 50% in the vast majority of them, and they tend to lag the national numbers for a variety of reasons.
Any student of political history also knows that in most cases, the incumbent will add almost no votes to their totals in the last week of the election. They have locked up just about all they are going to get by that point.
This year may be different because of the hurricane. Obama better hope so at least, because in a normal year, his vote share and trajectory do not suggest electoral success.
I personally think it is going to be very close next Tuesday, but I much prefer being in Romney’s position right now relative to Obama’s. Much prefer it.
Interestingly, the Obama campaign's election night affair this time around will be held at McCormick Place.
I'm told the place is inaccessible to walk-up traffic. And it is space that can be readily sliced in half, then in half again.
They're not expecting a Grant Park audience themselves, it would seem.
“........MSM seems to believe there just aren’t enough of us left to decide elections anymore”
Over the last couple of years I’ve read several posts from liberals (in comments to articles on news websites) that kind of support your comment. The comments are along the lines of; “pretty soon all these old white guys will be dead and we won’t have to put up with Republicans anymore” ..... or something like that.
I guess those punks have never been to a Tea Party rally and noticed the demographics!
Obama is now being forced to defend Blue States.
Do some actual research.
That's precisely today's MSM and Obama campaign talking point! Like just about all the previous ones they've tried, it falls flat on its face when put to the test in the real world.
Did anyone at CBS and the New York Slimes notice, for example, that the bulk of the serious damage from the storm came in New Jersey and New York, two states quite likely in the Zero column already. And by taking a trip to New Jersey tomorrow, it is Obama who taking valuable time away from the "swing" states where he intended to concentrate his efforts. Presidential leadership? If he hasn't shown any in his entire term, he isn't going to make up for it with a few phony "I feel your pain" gigs in the aftermath of the storm.
Then again, no surprise. It's the kind of propaganda you can expect from either CBS or the New York Slimes or, in this case, their report of their own poll.
As for the poll results, you have to read down to the very end of the report to notice that their party distribution of likely voters was Dem 36, Rep 31, Ind 33. The real national electorate is expected to be just about even between the two major parties. So the 5 point Democrat advantage in the poll sample skews the real result in their favor. Furthermore, even the CBSers and their Slimes comrades have to know that it's just about impossible for a candidate to be up 12 percentage points in a two main race among independents and yet trail overall by even a single point. Garbage in, garbage out!
Good post.
Your post got me to thinking about what the last minute game plan for Obama is and why he left Florida without making his campaign stop.
They put the whole campaign on hold to change direction and make new ads. They sent Clinton out there with the story about Obama’s feelings being hurt, all because the angry, sneering Obama wasn’t working. Obama is adopting the old Clinton approach, “I feel your pain.”
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
That link is showing Romney has lost Florida. Somehow, hussein will lie, cheat and steal his way into another 4 years (or to enternity and beyond).
How could Florida change that quickly? It would explain why Romney is there, though.
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