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Obama Magic gone in Ohio?
Hotair ^ | 10/25/2012 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 10/25/2012 1:21:16 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

In 2008, Barack Obama campaigned like a rock star, especially in places hard hit by the economy, like Ohio --- which Obama won by five points in the election, while enjoying a D+8 turnout. Four years later, the rock-star vibe has utterly faded, and the campaign has turned into a grind for Team Obama as they dig up every vote they can find to try to hold off a resurgent Mitt Romney in the Buckeye State. Byron York describes it as "the magic is gone":

Messina is particularly focused on what are called low-propensity or sporadic voters --- that is, voters who can't be relied on to show up at the polls regularly, who might or might not make it to vote on Election Day. If Obama can bank their votes early, he won't have to worry about them on November 6. "Sporadic voters matter," Messina explained. "It can't just be about getting your traditional Democrats to vote early. If that were the case, then we&'d be wasting our time and money. This is about increasing the overall share of people who may be drop-off voters…"

So far, there are indications the Obama/Messina plan is making progress. In the latest Rasmussen poll, released Wednesday, which showed the race in Ohio locked in a 48-48 tie, Obama led among early voters by ten percentage points. The problem is, that’s less of a lead than Obama had among early voters in 2008. So now, the president is frantically pursuing all those sporadic voters out there, begging them to cast a ballot early.

That’s the essence of the Obama re-election effort less than two weeks from Election Day. Team Obama knows the campaign doesn’t have the magic it had in 2008. Crowds are enthusiastic, but not over-the-top enthusiastic. Obama’s strategy is to make up the excitement gap by just grinding it out, doing the organizational work of getting the people most likely to support the president — blacks, Latinos, women, the young — to vote early. By doing so, he hopes to build up a sufficient bank of votes to prevail over Romney on November 6. It’s the no-magic campaign.

But it’s not all magic, as York reminds us. Obama may have done poorly in the debates, and step on his message in extemporaneous conversations, but on the stump Obama is formidable:

One fact that seems sometimes lost in the obsession with early voting and the ground game is that Obama remains a very, very good campaigner. Certainly at Triangle Park he delivered what could only be called an extraordinarily polished performance. In recent days the Romney campaign has characterized the president’s stump speeches as “increasingly desperate.” Perhaps that’s true, but the fact is, Obama is still an impressively effective campaigner when it comes to delivering speeches at old-fashioned political rallies. Comparing Romney and Obama on the stump is no contest. Even without the messianic promise of his 2008 campaign, the president is still a far, far better performer.

Yesterday, Time Magazine released a poll in Ohio showing Obama up by 5, 49/44, but the sample was D+9, with lower Republican turnout than in 2008. No one took it seriously, including Chuck Todd — and as he reports, neither of the campaigns did either:

CLICK ABOVE LINK FOR THE VIDEO

Let’s take a look at a poll that went largely unremarked yesterday. Survey USA polled 609 likely and actual voters (those who have already cast ballots) in Ohio and found the race in a virtual tie, 47/44 for Obama, and found the same in the Senate race, with Republican challenger Josh Mandel just one point behind Sherrod Brown, 42/43. The sample is also a little suspect at D+7 (39/32/25), but the internals are interesting in the presidential race:

It’s a razor-close race in Ohio, but if Romney has knocked six points off of Obama’s 2008 gender gap and turned an eight-point deficit among independents into an eight-point advantage in a cycle where Democratic enthusiasm won’t come close to matching 2008, I have to think that the magic has already shifted to Romney.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012swingstates; obama; oh2012; ohio; romney

1 posted on 10/25/2012 1:21:19 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
Ohio isn't even going to be close.

Look for an Obama landslide defeat of historic proportions.

2 posted on 10/25/2012 1:22:37 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the psychopath.)
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To: SeekAndFind

As long as there is the press, there will always be magic for Obama, at least what gets reported (or should I say, manufactured).


3 posted on 10/25/2012 1:25:31 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
Ohio isn't even going to be close.

Obama knows it too. You can see it in his eyes and hear it in his voice. He's starting to squeal.
4 posted on 10/25/2012 1:25:40 PM PDT by mmichaels1970
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
"Look for an Obama landslide defeat of historic proportions."

SMH. Obama will end up with at least 200 EVs. It will not be a landslide. I am just hoping for a comfortable margin of victory for Romney.

5 posted on 10/25/2012 1:27:04 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
Obama Campaign's Downward Spiral
6 posted on 10/25/2012 1:28:14 PM PDT by Jay777 (My personal blog: www.stoptheaclu.com)
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To: mmichaels1970

Frank Luntz just said on Hannity that Romney needs OH to win.


7 posted on 10/25/2012 1:29:39 PM PDT by biss5577
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To: SeekAndFind

8 posted on 10/25/2012 1:29:50 PM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

There’s a mathematical problem here for this ‘Messina’ dude and ZERO.

If they’re lagging behind the ‘early voting’ of 2008, then with WHOM are they going to make up the difference with on Election Day? Which they readily admit is what they’re frantically trying to avoid.


9 posted on 10/25/2012 1:30:17 PM PDT by LibFreeUSA
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To: SeekAndFind

The biggest shift in Ohio is in the southern Ohio coal belt. 55-45 for Obama in 2008, now 60-40 for Romney. The statistical models on which the statewide polls are designed are not recording this big change.


10 posted on 10/25/2012 1:32:22 PM PDT by allendale
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To: SeekAndFind

Open Yahoo and the headline is “Mitt Romney still hasn’t given up in Ohio.”


11 posted on 10/25/2012 1:32:32 PM PDT by Proud2BeRight
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
Ohio isn't even going to be close.

..I've said the same Obama will lose by 8 points. Everybody knows about Independents in Ohio will move the same thing that did the same in 2010.

12 posted on 10/25/2012 1:33:47 PM PDT by Recon Dad (Gas & Petroleum Junkie)
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To: SeekAndFind

I belive it was BB King that said;

The thrill is gone
The thrill is gone away
The thrill is gone obama
The thrill is gone away
You know you done the US wrong obama
Obama, you’ll be sorry election day

Or something like that...


13 posted on 10/25/2012 1:34:26 PM PDT by areukiddingme1 (areukiddingme1 is a synonym for a Retired U.S. Navy Chief Petty Officer and tired of liberal BS.))
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To: biss5577
Frank Luntz just said on Hannity that Romney needs OH to win.

Personally, I believe Frank Luntz is right. I'm staking all of my hopes and dreams for an Obama defeat on my home state
14 posted on 10/25/2012 1:36:46 PM PDT by mmichaels1970
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To: mmichaels1970
Obama is in Cleveland this evening, at Burke Lakefront Airport, in a "tarmac event." He's flying in, giving a speech apparently right at the airport, and then flying off to somewhere else. Part of his "all-nighter" marathon. I can't wait to see what reception he gets. Last week Bill and Springsteen came and had an audience of 3000 in Parma. Most of them were Springsteen fans, enjoying a free concert.
15 posted on 10/25/2012 1:37:09 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
It will not be a "landslide defeat of historic proportions."

It will be a close election.

There is a lot of work to do, and assuming that it is in the bag is unwise.

But it is winnable for Romney, which most observers thought was impossible two months ago.

We can get it done.

16 posted on 10/25/2012 1:39:24 PM PDT by wideawake
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To: areukiddingme1
The Pretenders will hate this:

I went back to Ohio
But my voters were gone
Not at the train station
And no one downtown
Somehow they had disappeared
From all my favorite places
My voters had moved on
All that was left was their parking spaces
Ay! Oh! Where'd my voters go, Ohio?

17 posted on 10/25/2012 1:41:13 PM PDT by Enterprise ("Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities." Voltaire)
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To: allendale
The biggest shift in Ohio is in the southern Ohio coal belt. 55-45 for Obama in 2008, now 60-40 for Romney

I can believe it but the area is not the heaviest population unfortunately. There will also be a dropoff in black turnout in the cities, which may or may not be factored in. Such changes are going to be real but difficult to predict numerically.

18 posted on 10/25/2012 1:41:32 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: mmichaels1970

He was saying that Romney could win the popular vote lose the electoral. Lots of opinions, take them all in, take nothing for granted and do a lot of praying!


19 posted on 10/25/2012 1:42:10 PM PDT by biss5577
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To: SeekAndFind

I don’t think it’ll come down to Ohio, simply because we’ve been over-deluged with “conventional wisdom” that says it’s going to be the deciding factor.

I think Mitt will win Ohio, but he’ll win big enough that he won’t need it.

I think Mitt will get IA, WI and NH along with the other usual suspects.


20 posted on 10/25/2012 1:43:07 PM PDT by Kingosaurus
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To: biss5577

Luntz is a closet Liberal and lets lose his bias from time to time... Liberals like to cut loose with disheartening news for conservatives. However, several others say Romney could do it without Ohio, one of those being Dick Morris.


21 posted on 10/25/2012 1:45:11 PM PDT by dps.inspect (rage against the Obama machine...)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

are the early votes actually cast for the person or are they sealed till nov 6th and they are just assuming that every early demcrat vote is for obama?


22 posted on 10/25/2012 1:56:19 PM PDT by edzo4 (You call us the 'Party Of No', I call us the resistance.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

I don’t understand why you say landslide based on these figures. The constant drumbeat of the press for Obama makes me feel he has a huge advantage. Educate me. I’m nervous.


23 posted on 10/25/2012 2:13:48 PM PDT by Calpublican
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To: SeekAndFind

24 posted on 10/25/2012 2:16:38 PM PDT by Slyfox
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To: edzo4
are the early votes actually cast for the person or are they sealed till nov 6th and they are just assuming that every early demcrat vote is for obama?

That's my question too. In all of these states with early voting, are they recording and reporting the actual vote counts, or is this just party affiliation? Seems to me that reporting actual vote counts would not be really kosher.

25 posted on 10/25/2012 2:22:54 PM PDT by JustaCowgirl (Storm the heavens with your prayers for Mitt Romney tonight.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Ohio generally votes a point or so more republican than the national popular vote. With most national polls showing Romney with a 3 point lead, Ohio would have to drastically change its voting pattern this year. The media narrative has been for Ohio to be the big battleground. If Romney is shown to be winning in Ohio, there is no real path for Obama, and therefore nothing to hype.


26 posted on 10/25/2012 2:24:34 PM PDT by zaker99
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Someone should run an ad featuring Dave Letterman agreeing that Obama lied about the Auto Bankruptcy position of Romney. Its an issue that plays in OH, and most people realize that Letterman is a liberal regarding politics.


27 posted on 10/25/2012 2:26:57 PM PDT by ChronicMA
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To: SeekAndFind

These low propensity voters....what are they getting for their vote?

If they can’t get these people to vote THIS TIME, then those folks really don’t wanna vote! Thus, they will need an incentive of some kind to vote especially to cast their vote for O. So what could it be?


28 posted on 10/25/2012 2:28:43 PM PDT by uncitizen (Religion of Peace my hind end)
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To: zaker99

RE: Ohio generally votes a point or so more republican than the national popular vote.

Have you found this to be true during the past 3 or 4 Presidential election cycles?


29 posted on 10/25/2012 2:29:32 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: Calpublican
I don’t understand why you say landslide based on these figures.

The only poll I need is the Chick-Fil-A poll.

The Chick-Fil-A poll was a proxy for the voting booth on November 6th. People are chomping-at-the-bit to vote against Ubama.

The turnout is going to be historic. Establishment polls can't predict that.

30 posted on 10/25/2012 2:33:29 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the psychopath.)
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To: SeekAndFind

O-hi-o says, Oh,bye 0..?


31 posted on 10/25/2012 2:35:25 PM PDT by Leep (Billybob 0bama:I sure would like to remain dic-tater..mmm hmmm)
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To: SeekAndFind
RE: Ohio generally votes a point or so more republican than the national popular vote.

Have you found this to be true during the past 3 or 4 Presidential election cycles?

Not entirely true. Ohio has picked the winner dating back to Kennedy/Nixon in 1960 (where they still may have picked the ACTUAL winner less RAT fraud in Chicago and Texas, but I digress).

In all those elections, Ohio has been within three points of the national number, usually slightly favoring the winner. It's hard to believe that will change in this election.

32 posted on 10/25/2012 2:36:14 PM PDT by NYRepublican72
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To: wideawake

I don’t think it’s going to be close. I doubt O will get 47% and 200-220 EV’s.


33 posted on 10/25/2012 2:41:29 PM PDT by Fledermaus (Democrats are dangerous and evil. Republicans are just useful idiots.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Obama didn’t have magic, He only had mojo and
very little of that, now the suckers are few.


34 posted on 10/25/2012 2:43:51 PM PDT by tet68 ( " We would not die in that man's company, that fears his fellowship to die with us...." Henry V.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Gas prices are dropping in Ohio — it can not be a coincidence.


35 posted on 10/25/2012 2:49:33 PM PDT by vortigern
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To: SeekAndFind

It ain’t over til it’s over! Don’t get complacent folks - continue to get out the vote whatever state in which you live.


36 posted on 10/25/2012 3:21:31 PM PDT by cblue55 (The original point and click interface was a Smith and Wesson.)
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To: SeekAndFind

It ain’t over til it’s over! Don’t get complacent folks - continue to get out the vote whatever state in which you live.


37 posted on 10/25/2012 3:21:48 PM PDT by cblue55 (The original point and click interface was a Smith and Wesson.)
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To: SeekAndFind
He is a mundane speaker at best... and if they ain't fainting... and they ain't... he is swinging and missing. When you had 50,000 screaming Beatles fans loving you... that is one thing... when you get applause from 5000 paid seiu parasites... you got nutn’!

LLS

38 posted on 10/25/2012 3:45:25 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
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To: SeekAndFind

2008 - McCain OH - 47 - National - 46

2004 - Bush OH - 51 - National - 51

2000 - Bush OH - 49.97 - National - 47.9

1996 - Dole OH - 41 - National - 41

1992 - Bush OH - 38.35 - National - 37.5

1988 - Bush OH - 55 - National - 53

1984 - Reagan OH - 58.77 - National - 58.8

I don’t see Romney losing Ohio if he wins the national popular vote, especially if he wins by more than a point or two nationally.


39 posted on 10/25/2012 4:18:16 PM PDT by zaker99
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To: Enterprise

They won’t mind to much. Most of the OD’d years ago


40 posted on 10/25/2012 5:01:26 PM PDT by newbie 10-21-00
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To: Enterprise
The Pretenders will hate this:

The lead singer (Chrissie Hynde) doesn't mind Rush using it, so I don't think you will upset them too much. :)

41 posted on 10/25/2012 8:44:39 PM PDT by America_Right (I am no longer the 53%. Unemployment sucks! Time to write a book...)
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To: hinckley buzzard; allendale
The biggest shift in Ohio is in the southern Ohio coal belt. 55-45 for Obama in 2008, now 60-40 for Romney

I can believe it but the area is not the heaviest population unfortunately.

I will be going on a hunting trip there on Nov. 7th (visiting my dad), and I can attest to the fact that it is very lightly populated. But, according to my Dad, it is very, very solid Romney.

42 posted on 10/25/2012 8:48:01 PM PDT by America_Right (I am no longer the 53%. Unemployment sucks! Time to write a book...)
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To: America_Right

A few years ago she DID mind Rush using the song. But her mother is a fan of Rush, so Hynde dropped it and didn’t protest any more.


43 posted on 10/25/2012 9:12:11 PM PDT by Enterprise ("Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities." Voltaire)
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