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Here's Why Google Could Disappear in Five Years: Pro
CNBC ^ | 19 Oct 2012 | Cadie Thompson

Posted on 10/21/2012 5:55:10 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster

Here's Why Google Could Disappear in Five Years: Pro

Published: Friday, 19 Oct 2012 | 12:25 PM ET

By: Cadie Thompson Technology Editor, CNBC.com

Google may be on its way out as the dominant player in search, according to one analyst — and could even "disappear" in as little as five to eight years if the competitive pressures that ultimately claimed other search giants start to take root.

In the wake of a surprisingly weak earnings report, Eric Jackson, Ironfire capital founder and managing member, said Google Google [GOOG 681.79 -13.21 (-1.9%) ] could easily find itself fending off the woes that eventually took hold at embattled Yahoo! [YHOO 15.84 -0.16 (-1%) ].

"They could disappear in five to eight years and disappear in the sense that Yahoo used to be the king of search. Now, for all intents and purposes, Yahoo has disappeared," Jackson said Thursday on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street".

(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Technical; Testing
KEYWORDS: apple; google; revenue; siri

1 posted on 10/21/2012 5:55:14 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
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To: TigerLikesRooster; PAR35; AndyJackson; Thane_Banquo; nicksaunt; MadLibDisease; happygrl; ...

P!


2 posted on 10/21/2012 5:56:27 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster (The way to crush the bourgeois is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
Google shopping, for example, has been changed to only show paid results in a way that should generate a lot of money for the company, Jackson said.

If true, Google just shot itself seriously in the foot.

Many moons ago I switched to Google from Yahoo specifically because they didn't pull such crap.

A search engine that gives preference to paying clients immediately loses all credibility.

3 posted on 10/21/2012 6:01:01 AM PDT by Sherman Logan
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Of course.. these products follow the course of all consumer products.... the public will tire and want the new new.


4 posted on 10/21/2012 6:01:23 AM PDT by Katya (Homo Nosce Te Ipsum)
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To: Sherman Logan

I stopped using Google about a year ago.

Got tired of the direction they tried to guide me into.


5 posted on 10/21/2012 6:05:07 AM PDT by Venturer
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Google is not going away anytime soon.


6 posted on 10/21/2012 6:16:47 AM PDT by smokingfrog ( sleep with one eye open (<o> ---)
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To: Venturer

I could probably make Google a bunch of money.

I’ve been noticing something lately on NRO and other sites that have side-ads, and something I really hate, popups.

The ads keep showing me sites I’ve looked up recently on Google, such as Choice Hotels and DeWalt Factory Outlet. Presumably because Google is tracking me and showing me ads they think I want to see.

Here’s the problem. I already have been to Choice Hotels. Why don’t the ads show me other hotel websites or sites touting other aspects of travel?

For the DeWalt Tools site info, why don’t they show other tool sellers?

Seems like Google’s tracking algorithms are terribly primitive. Amazon seems to do a much better job of extrapolating from a user’s search pattern to what else he might be interested in.


7 posted on 10/21/2012 6:24:54 AM PDT by Sherman Logan
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To: Sherman Logan
A search engine that gives preference to paying clients immediately loses all credibility.

It's just on the shopping side. The organic search you use when you want to find something still appears per their page rank algorithm.

8 posted on 10/21/2012 6:25:47 AM PDT by Poison Pill (Take your silver lining and SHOVE IT!)
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To: Poison Pill

Don’t care.

I used Shopping simply because it was a place to find stuff for sale that wasn’t being advertised.

Now I won’t use it anymore, or at least much less often.


9 posted on 10/21/2012 6:33:08 AM PDT by Sherman Logan
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To: Poison Pill

Don’t care.

I used Shopping simply because it was a place to find stuff for sale that wasn’t being advertised.

Now I won’t use it anymore, or at least much less often.


10 posted on 10/21/2012 6:39:37 AM PDT by Sherman Logan
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To: TigerLikesRooster

I don’t know if Google will last or not, but some pretty big names have come and gone. This is exactly why I don’t use the cloud to store my backup data. What happens to all that data when, if, (probably someday) Carbonite fails?


11 posted on 10/21/2012 6:48:08 AM PDT by umgud (No Rats, No Rino's)
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To: Sherman Logan

This is called “remarketing.” They follow you around the internet and keep showing you ads. It can be effective for high volume sites.


12 posted on 10/21/2012 6:59:16 AM PDT by ModelBreaker
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To: TigerLikesRooster
Google search results have gotten increasingly useless for me.

Plus, with searching from the address pane in latest browsers, I rarely even get to the Google search result window.

13 posted on 10/21/2012 7:07:39 AM PDT by Trailerpark Badass (So?)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks TigerLikesRooster.

If Zero wins the election, Google will be another government acquisition; all online forums will either require verified ID or will vanish; and there will be federal “outreach” workers in every neighborhood.


14 posted on 10/21/2012 7:18:21 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: Sherman Logan
I used Shopping simply because it was a place to find stuff for sale that wasn’t being advertised.

It always was being advertised. Merchants feed those products into Google's system. The problems was that because they didn't charge the merchant to do it,there was no barrier against merchants throwing tons of stuff into the system that they didn't have just to get site traffic. By making the merchants pay to list, Google cleared out a lot of spammy or error prone listings.

15 posted on 10/21/2012 7:30:15 AM PDT by Poison Pill (Take your silver lining and SHOVE IT!)
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To: Sherman Logan

If you have already clicked on Choice Hotels, you are more likely to click on them again than to click on another hotel chain. Based only on your Choice Hotels click, they could reasonably assume that you are more likely to click on another hotel, car rental, etc, than to click on an ad for Joe’s Crab Shack, but Choice is still the most likely than anything else and clicks are what they get paid for.

These people are PhDs and experts at data mining, with immense data sets and the hardware to mine them. They know what works.


16 posted on 10/21/2012 7:33:54 AM PDT by Darth Reardon
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To: Sherman Logan

Giving search results pushing a leftist political ideology is not wise, either. Identifying your brand with radical Obama, socialism and the jihadist Arab Spring, is not wise either. But Google did it.


17 posted on 10/21/2012 7:50:36 AM PDT by SaraJohnson
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To: Darth Reardon
These people are PhDs and experts at data mining, with immense data sets and the hardware to mine them. They know what works.

It's probably more accurate to say they think they know what works; the problem with some companies/cultures/people is that when they get some authority/credibility they cease to consider other, differing points of view. (How many PhDs believe in anthropogenic global "climate change"?)

If you're going with a "know what works"-type mentality then you're likely going to be a lot more like Niklaus Wirth and his metric for compiler quality (self-compilation speed) embraced to the degree that he had an entire subsystem ripped out because it violated the metric. The problem though is that a lot of people get invested in the designs of what they've already done and thus consider only micro-optimization rather than re-design; but this also applies politically too, people get invested in a party and some go off the deep-end, fanatically supporting a candidate that they otherwise would consider crap [*cough romney *cough].

18 posted on 10/21/2012 8:09:55 AM PDT by OneWingedShark (Q: Why am I here? A: To do Justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with my God.)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Basically the mobile devices (smartphones) are going to screw google just give it time. Screw them the way it has and is yahoo and Facebook.

All because on mobiles>>>

a— advertizing is lot less visible so less eye-catching
b- advertisers know this thus a google cannot charge (does not charge) as much for this advertising
c— even if you do click through on a mobile device there is far less chance of you scrutinizing and imbibing what you land on and advertisers know this


19 posted on 10/21/2012 8:23:23 AM PDT by dennisw (Government be yo mamma - Re-elect Barack Obama)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Technology evolution. There aren’t many buggy-makers around anymore, either. Things are just moving more quickly than they used to.


20 posted on 10/21/2012 8:30:31 AM PDT by bannie ("The gov't that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend upon the support of Paul.")
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To: dennisw

There are very attractive marketing opportunities presented by mobile devices but these are limited by a few current realities, the most prominent of them being the structure of many plans being limited as far as data.

In the absence of that limitation and assuming individuals with mobile devices were amenable (another hurdle that could be incented as a positive option), demographic and preference data unique to each individual combined with geographic location could be very lucrative for certain kinds of businesses.

You could literally pull in fairly well qualified sales prospects with a high likelihood of purchase via passing traffic with an offer that is appealing, timely and immediate (think coupon), or market to an obscure interest within a set geographic radius via a mobile blast.

I’m suspicious of Google and don’t particularly like them, but I wouldn’t count them out just yet. It’s just that they’re still stuck in the old static, traditional advertising mindset, counting eyeballs and clickthrough. A lot of fraud there and the medium is not optimal due to the size of the screen as you note.

They need to realize that they are direct marketers. An extremely appealing offer can be created in text alone, it’s been done for close to a century in print. I can assure you that they’ll go down if they fail to realize this. At least one of their primary competitors does.


21 posted on 10/21/2012 8:43:19 AM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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To: Sherman Logan
Here’s the problem. I already have been to Choice Hotels.

I've experienced something similar. I don't know that it originated with Google, but for a time I constantly was shown ads about sites I'd recently patronized, or had been ordering from for years. That seems to have slacked off, and it never made any sense.

And now, if I go to WalMart, I soon receive an email showing me additional items I might be interested in "based on the purchases during my recent trip to my local WalMart." Or maybe I knew what I wanted to buy, and bought everything I wanted to buy.

Some of the tracking is comical and some of it irritating, and it can begin to seem pretty intrusive and presumptuous. And more and more tracking and follow-up emails is going on within various online vendor sites.

22 posted on 10/21/2012 9:12:34 AM PDT by Will88
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To: RegulatorCountry

yes hyper targeted advertizing would work a lot better on smartphones. So a Google or Apple has every incentive to track compile store regurgitate to the right people your internet surfing habits. Just last week it seems Apple could not resist tracking iPhone users again even after it pledged not to.

This shows Apple likes what you have to say about advertizing (just my 2¢ Worth)

Apple controls its smartphone Eco-systsem while google has an inferior position. Google needs to do a real buccaneer partnership with Samsung or LG, putting out co-branded smartphones,then it could be like Apple and do the hyper targeted advertising


23 posted on 10/21/2012 9:13:27 AM PDT by dennisw (Government be yo mamma - Re-elect Barack Obama)
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To: dennisw

If it’s positive option, meaning user permission, and it’s actually products and services that the user likes and wants, the negative connotation is not going to fly. Don’t want it? Decline when you enter a plan.

Google doesn’t have an ecosystem, btw. They have a herd of cats.


24 posted on 10/21/2012 9:20:33 AM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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To: Will88

Irritating a customer is worse than marketing budget wasted it’s potentially losing a customer. Companies that do this have no concept of timeliness let alone behavioral marketing. They give all direct marketers a bad name.

Cheap medium, plaster the world with a one size fits all appeal, tantamount to e-mail spam. It doesn’t even arise to the level of Sham-Wow or Snuggies. At least they were somewhat fun and targeted, late night low budget media buys notwithstanding. But, there’s design and forethought even there, people viewing tv in the middle of the night as a group are more susceptible, so you get that sort of infomercial, they want to belong, they’re bored and lonely as a group, so they pull out the card and call. Kind of like old folks and collectible kitkat, the direct response ads are almost always in the middle of the day if infomercial.

Those guys know what they’re doing. What you describe Walmart as doing is scattershot and borderline damaging. I’m surprised.


25 posted on 10/21/2012 9:43:05 AM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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To: TigerLikesRooster

The analyst may or may not be correct. However, his reasoning is absurd.

Google is not a search company. Google is an advertising company. Search stopped being their core business years ago. In fact, their search product isn’t demonstrably better than what is probably their closest competitor, Bing. Google’s index is still larger, but their results aren’t superior.

Google is an advertising company.


26 posted on 10/21/2012 3:41:10 PM PDT by Terpfen (Any candidate is better than Obama. Any.)
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To: RegulatorCountry
What you describe Walmart as doing is scattershot and borderline damaging. I’m surprised.

I was surprised, also, but have now been getting emails after going to a WalMart for about a month. And they're suggestions are usually nothing I'm interested in.

They also track what someone views on their site, then send emails making suggestions based on what someone viewed during previous visits. Those are a little closer to something I might be interested in, but still of no practical use.

Another online vendor now sends out emails if I put something in a 'basket', but don't order it. They send out "Forgot Something" emails, but I didn't forget and put something in the basket to consider the next time I actually place an order.

I think many online vendors and search engine folks are beginning to overdo it and they'll probably begin to experience some backlash because there is just too much of it now and more is being added all the time.

27 posted on 10/21/2012 3:44:05 PM PDT by Will88
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To: Will88
Just because you can do it doesn't mean you should do it. These places would do well to join the DMA, educate their marketing departments in good direct marketing practice and take control of implementation decisions away from their IT departments.

These are very basic, intrusive and potentially offensive blunders. They're comparable to all the stupid "Dear (NAME) in (CITY/STATE) form letters that were mailed out by the millions when database-driven direct mail was in it's infancy fifty years ago. They "worked" in the early days, meaning that response metrics indicated a bump in sales when used, but over time they're going to discover that it's also horrible as far as customer retention.

The use of these tools should be subtle and unobtrusive. Overt use of certain types data retained and tracked internally for external customer contact is disturbing to the customer. Many websites actually seem more like store detectives following you around and going "AHA! Caught you! You picked that up and didn't buy it!" Would you leave the store mortified and never come back? Many would.

Think of large, old-line catalogs that have successfully managed to transition not just online but into retail themselves. They know better, they don't make such stupid newbie mistakes. Data should be used to delight, surprise and reward the customer and remain largely behind the scenes whenever possible, not trap them, shame them or berate them.

Salesmanship 101, really. It's obvious the things you describe aren't being implemented by anyone with a clue about that let alone even interacting with actual customers. They don't have to reinvent the wheel, here. Just admit they don't know everything and that schlocky junk mail people figured it out long ago, lol. A tough thing to do for the IT poobahs, apparently, because the stupidity continues.

They don't care so long as it all remains in their little IT fiefdom, I guess.

28 posted on 10/21/2012 5:51:07 PM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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To: Terpfen

“Google is an advertising company.”

Exactly, and a real internet search company would make them valueless in a very short time.


29 posted on 10/21/2012 6:00:39 PM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
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To: RegulatorCountry
Just because you can do it doesn't mean you should do it.

That's exactly what I've been thinking as I typed the posts to this thread. The IT folks do seem to have been turned loose to create all sorts of tracking and customer data to be used in all sorts of supposedly worthwhile ads and emails directed at the customer.

But all too much of it of little use and it justs adds to the volume of junk email to be deleted.

30 posted on 10/21/2012 6:05:33 PM PDT by Will88
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To: TigerLikesRooster

I cut my Google advertising by 70% this year because it hasn’t been cost effective. I blame the economy, more than Google. They might want to reconsider their support for insane communist politicians.


31 posted on 10/21/2012 6:12:42 PM PDT by St_Thomas_Aquinas (Viva Christo Rey!)
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To: mrsmith

You mean like Yahoo, Bing, Dogpile, Ask.com, and all the others that are doing nothing to Google’s search dominance?


32 posted on 10/21/2012 7:10:11 PM PDT by Terpfen (Any candidate is better than Obama. Any.)
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To: Terpfen

They’re advertising companies too.
Hard to beat Google at advertising. Not so hard to beat it at searching if optimising searches- not optimising advertising dollars- is your goal.

Considering all the US money invested in Google, I’m surprised a competitor government hasn’t built a real search engine and wiped all that money out of our economy.


33 posted on 10/21/2012 7:45:17 PM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
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To: Sherman Logan

The reason Google show you the ads of the sites you have already visited is because research has shown them that most folks do not buy an item the first time they visit a site but the reminder of showing you the ad again results in a huge amount of sales. Same goes for recruiting....if I can track you to my applicant tracking system for a job and you fall off and do not complete the application....which happens about 70% of the time.....I show you the job again later or remind you that it is still open say a week later and you go back and fill out the app. and apply.


34 posted on 10/21/2012 7:55:55 PM PDT by superfries
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To: mrsmith

startpage.com


35 posted on 10/21/2012 8:05:39 PM PDT by superfries
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To: umgud
What happens to all that data when, if, (probably someday) Carbonite fails?

Good point. I have other concerns with cloud computing.

36 posted on 11/26/2012 8:26:15 AM PST by ELS (Vivat Benedictus XVI!)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Google the search engine might be replaced. Google the company has bought so many things that are spread so far and wide on the web they aren’t going anywhere. Their holdings are wildly diversified.


37 posted on 11/26/2012 8:29:41 AM PST by discostu (Not a part of anyone's well oiled machine.)
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To: Sherman Logan

I cheerfully use startpage.

https://startpage.com/eng/


38 posted on 11/26/2012 8:47:23 AM PST by Chickensoup (Leftist Totalitarian Fascism coming to a country like yours.)
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