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Obama 348, Romney 190: UAH astrophysicist, who got it right twice before, predicts electoral results
The Huntsville Times ^ | Tuesday, October 02, 2012 | Challen Stephens

Posted on 10/03/2012 5:10:05 PM PDT by Condor 63

There is little suspense left in our presidential horse race, even in most of the so-called swing states, says astrophysicist and statistician Wes Colley.

The way he measures the poll data and his deceptively simple median method, which have correctly predicted the last two presidential elections, show President Obama has locked up Ohio and Virginia and cemented a small, but stable lead in Florida.

Bottom line: Obama is well on his way to re-election.

"I think the operative word is disaster if you're a Republican," said Colley on Monday. "I think the operative word is confidence if you're a Democrat."

"These things can swing a lot. But it would have to swing a lot a lot."

(Excerpt) Read more at blog.al.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Alabama; US: Arizona; US: Florida; US: Hawaii; US: Indiana; US: Missouri; US: New Jersey; US: North Carolina; US: North Dakota; US: Ohio; US: Oregon; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: alabama; arizona; disaster; florida; hawaii; indiana; missouri; northcarolina; northdakota; ohio; oregon; princeton; richardgott; stopconservatives; stoprepubvote; uahuntsville; ucla; virginia; voodoo; wescolley
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1 posted on 10/03/2012 5:10:10 PM PDT by Condor 63
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To: Condor 63
which have correctly predicted the last two presidential elections

Wow! That's some track record!

-PJ

2 posted on 10/03/2012 5:11:31 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( It doesn't I naturally when you're not natural born.)
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To: Condor 63

I’ll see what he says Nov. 7.


3 posted on 10/03/2012 5:11:34 PM PDT by AU72
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To: Condor 63

The US is doomed.


4 posted on 10/03/2012 5:12:43 PM PDT by SkyDancer ("OF COURSE I TALK TO MYSELF - Sometimes I need an expert opinion")
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To: Condor 63
Prediction only as good as the polls he's averaging.

Word if your Democrat: Oversampled. Translation: Overconfidence.

And that's how it should be going into the election.

5 posted on 10/03/2012 5:13:21 PM PDT by Publius Maximus (It was a nice Republic, while it lasted.)
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To: Political Junkie Too

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.


6 posted on 10/03/2012 5:13:58 PM PDT by mountn man (Happiness is not a destination, its a way of life.)
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To: Condor 63

Sorry Wes. When you put rabidly dishonest BS in your models, you get BS out.


7 posted on 10/03/2012 5:14:19 PM PDT by Flightdeck (If you hear me yell "Eject, Eject, Eject!" the last two will be echos...)
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To: Condor 63

Hey, genius Colley: What’s the “operative word” if you’re an American, huh?


8 posted on 10/03/2012 5:14:55 PM PDT by clintonh8r (Happy to be represented by Lt. Col. Allen West)
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To: Condor 63

The last two were easy.How did this “astrophysicist” do in 2000?


9 posted on 10/03/2012 5:15:59 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: Condor 63

Nevermind today’s Politico poll with Romney leading in the swing states.


10 posted on 10/03/2012 5:16:43 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Condor 63

“In ‘04, we only missed Hawaii.”

Well, if you can not predict Hawaii, DEMOCRAT all the time, what good are you?


11 posted on 10/03/2012 5:16:47 PM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: Condor 63
Well that's it! I'm just not voting. The election is over, some astophysicist I never heard of says it is. /sarcasm
12 posted on 10/03/2012 5:17:07 PM PDT by apillar
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To: Condor 63

190!?!

that would mean Obama wins North Carolina, which is impossible.


13 posted on 10/03/2012 5:17:16 PM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama lied .. the economy died.)
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To: Condor 63

I successfully predicted the outcome of the last two Presidential elections too. It was based on bowel movements on the day 16 days before the elction.


14 posted on 10/03/2012 5:18:56 PM PDT by dinoparty
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To: dinoparty

LOL


15 posted on 10/03/2012 5:20:13 PM PDT by angcat (ROMNEY/RYAN 2012)
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To: dinoparty

SHOCK POLL

Romney now up +4 in toss up states!

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/03/politico-romney-up-four-in-toss-up-states


16 posted on 10/03/2012 5:20:27 PM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama lied .. the economy died.)
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To: Condor 63

This is politics, not rocket science...

(or brain surgery, unless you count lobotomized Libs)


17 posted on 10/03/2012 5:20:53 PM PDT by mikrofon (NObama '12)
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To: Condor 63
"I think the operative word is disaster if you're a Republican," said Colley on Monday. "I think the operative word is confidence if you're a Democrat."

I think a lot of people, maybe in the tens of thousands, correctly predicted the last two elections. It did not take rocket science.

Maybe I am wrong. Maybe hundreds of thousands of people correctly predicted the outcome of the last two elections. Colley is one of them. I wonder what the other 999,999 people think about this one. They are on a par with Colley.

18 posted on 10/03/2012 5:21:43 PM PDT by olezip
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To: Political Junkie Too

Hell, I predicted the last election soon as McLame became the nominee... on the one before that I had a pretty good feeling old horse face didn’t have a chance, just because he was on the same plane of political existence as ol’ plugs, Bite-Me. You’d have to have been be an amoeba to have gotten at least one of those wrong.


19 posted on 10/03/2012 5:22:02 PM PDT by dps.inspect (rage against the Obama machine...)
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To: Condor 63
"In '04, we only missed Hawaii."

Wait, they predicted HAWAII was going for Bush in 2004??????

20 posted on 10/03/2012 5:22:12 PM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: All


Help End The Obama Era In 2012
Your Monthly and Quarterly Donations
Help Keep FR In the Battle!

21 posted on 10/03/2012 5:22:26 PM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: Condor 63

Garbage in garbage out. Brought to you by the same type of scientists that faked data in order to prove man made global warming.
The D/R rations are purely based on conjecture.


22 posted on 10/03/2012 5:22:42 PM PDT by grumpygresh (Democrats delenda est; zero sera dans l'enfer bientot)
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To: dinoparty

Ordinarily I would ask you to post a link to the results but in this case I think I’ll pass...


23 posted on 10/03/2012 5:22:47 PM PDT by Condor 63
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To: Sooth2222

This guy is basically saying that Obama will win EVERY toss up state.

Because Romney starts with 191 before a single toss up state is counted


24 posted on 10/03/2012 5:23:33 PM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama lied .. the economy died.)
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To: Condor 63
We will claim the climate guy Rush has often quoted on his show. This guy? Not so much...
25 posted on 10/03/2012 5:24:04 PM PDT by gov_bean_ counter (ObamaCare is an assault on the unborn, infirmed and elderly. GOP, repeat this as necessary...)
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To: Condor 63

OK, well, that’s it. It’s all over. I’m screwed, you’re screwed, we’re all screwed. This guy says so. It’s on the internet, it must be true. Good luck everybody!!


26 posted on 10/03/2012 5:26:45 PM PDT by davetex (Sick of moochers)
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To: Condor 63
Nothing "scientific" about it. He averages the last month's RCP polls, throwing out the outliers. Says election eve polls have too much margin for error.

Using his method we could definitely predict a Carter victory in 1980.

27 posted on 10/03/2012 5:28:27 PM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: Condor 63
...astrophysicist, who got it right twice before, predicts electoral results...

Just like a stopped clock (the kind with the hands, not the digital kind, but that would work, too).

28 posted on 10/03/2012 5:31:31 PM PDT by SERKIT ("Blazing Saddles" explains it all.......)
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To: Condor 63

He can kiss my butt.


29 posted on 10/03/2012 5:32:43 PM PDT by kimchi lover ("I can see November from Wisconsin")
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To: Condor 63
well, the votes are being counted in Spain...
30 posted on 10/03/2012 5:33:28 PM PDT by Chode (American Hedonist - *DTOM* -ww- NO Pity for the LAZY)
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To: Condor 63

Oooooh Aaaaah! What does the Ouija Board say?


31 posted on 10/03/2012 5:34:13 PM PDT by MCH
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To: Condor 63

269 to 269


32 posted on 10/03/2012 5:34:13 PM PDT by zwerni (this isn't gonna be good for business)
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To: Condor 63

I posted a screed the other day lambasting yet another negative poll for the allies—as opposed to the Obama Axis—and compared the Associated Press/Pimps football poll to their (putative) polling activity, and mentioned as well the baffling BCS (`Bowl Championship Series’) as proof that it’s all just hocus pocus and bad joojoo ...

So here’s asstrophysicist Colley rolling the bones for the BCS, as well as forecasting political results with his Magic 8 ball.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/wesley-colley/

Enough with the negative vibes, and nobody said nuthin’ `bout no Tigers.
In 2012, polling is to politics what lie detectors are to evidence.


33 posted on 10/03/2012 5:35:39 PM PDT by tumblindice (America's founding fathers: all armed conservatives)
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To: Condor 63

Hmmm.... Seems like Colley can be sloppy at times and overly dependent on others.

“LSU was ranked 10th and Boise State 11th in the final BCS standings, which determine who plays for the national title and other lucrative bowl games. But Wes Colley, a research scientist at the University of Alabama-Huntsville, failed to input the Appalachian State-Western Illinois playoff game into his set of rankings.

In the convoluted world of BCS computers, that mistake decided 10th and 11th place in the overall standings. LSU and Boise State flipped spots Monday.

The mistake was caught by CollegeBCS.com’s Jerry Palm, who reviews Colley’s work. Colley said he neglected to include that one score because it wasn’t initially on the database of Peter Wolfe, another BCS computer ranker.”


34 posted on 10/03/2012 5:35:43 PM PDT by ILS21R (The time is nigh.)
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To: Condor 63

I too predicted the last two elections. A matter of fact I knew Obama was going to win the first time I saw him speak when running against Clinton.


35 posted on 10/03/2012 5:36:11 PM PDT by Raycpa
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To: Condor 63

You can’t take the ASS out of ASStrophysicist!


36 posted on 10/03/2012 5:36:22 PM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: zwerni

That’s what my model shows - a tie. It won’t stay there long...


37 posted on 10/03/2012 5:36:30 PM PDT by Ingtar (Everyone complains about the weather, but only Liberals try to legislate it.)
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To: dps.inspect

I predicted the (future) election when Obama gave his speach the DNC way back when.

I predicted the election when Clinton looked the camera in the eye and said, “I tried it, but I didn’t inhale.”


38 posted on 10/03/2012 5:38:04 PM PDT by Hammerhead
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To: Condor 63

This guy simply makes a prediction based upon median of polls. Since the polls always say the same thing - the democrat wins - regardless of who actually wins, of what value is this prediction?


39 posted on 10/03/2012 5:38:43 PM PDT by skeeter
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To: Condor 63

This is the perfect setup to fool conservatives into thinking Obama is ahead, when he’s really behind.

Astrophysicist, eh? (Oh, I get it! He’s a rocket scientist!)


40 posted on 10/03/2012 5:39:54 PM PDT by reasonisfaith
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To: Condor 63

Since many astrophysicists depend heavily on government grants for their income, I think I see what’s driving his prediction...


41 posted on 10/03/2012 5:40:42 PM PDT by Lou L (Health "insurance" is NOT the same as health "care")
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To: Condor 63

someone tell them we are not going to Mars...


42 posted on 10/03/2012 5:41:07 PM PDT by hadaclueonce (you are paying 12% more for fuel because of Ethanol. Smile big Corn Lobby,)
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To: hadaclueonce

Yawn........

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/08/22/analysis-election-factors-points-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says


43 posted on 10/03/2012 5:43:57 PM PDT by Johnny_cash
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To: hadaclueonce

“someone tell them we are not going to Mars...”

And his mom called and said to clean up his room in the basement..


44 posted on 10/03/2012 5:43:57 PM PDT by hadaclueonce (you are paying 12% more for fuel because of Ethanol. Smile big Corn Lobby,)
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To: Raycpa

But.. Where’s your prediction THIS election?


45 posted on 10/03/2012 5:44:05 PM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: Condor 63

Wezzy needs to mash here...and start the Jaegermeister shooters!!! Cause in another month it ain’t gonna be pretty...

http://unskewedpolls.com/dailytrackingpoll.cfm


46 posted on 10/03/2012 5:47:28 PM PDT by mo (If you understand, no explanation is needed. If you don't understand, no explanation is possible.)
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To: Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America

I’m hoping my score after this election is 2 out of 3.


47 posted on 10/03/2012 5:50:26 PM PDT by Raycpa
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To: Raycpa

I predicted the last 4, and I did not use scientific methods


48 posted on 10/03/2012 5:52:48 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: Condor 63

This guy does football and basketball picks as well. I think he was part of the original BCS formula for football. I’m serious, not kidding.


49 posted on 10/03/2012 5:57:14 PM PDT by muwarriors92
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To: gswilder

Neither do pollsters apparently.


50 posted on 10/03/2012 6:03:03 PM PDT by Raycpa
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