Skip to comments.RNC memo claims 2012 ground game has already surpassed 2008
Posted on 09/24/2012 7:58:10 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Republican National Committee Political Director Rick Wiley sent out a Ground Game Update memo to Interested Parties today, claiming the RNCs 2012 voter contact efforts have already surpassed 2008 totals.
Overall, we have made more than 26 million voter contacts, thanks to the efforts of our 73,000 volunteers. This week, we expect to make our 30 millionth voter contact. By mid-September, we had already surpassed the 2008 operation in total volunteer voter contacts, Wiley writes. You can read the full memo below:
FROM: RNC Political Director Rick Wiley
TO: Interested Parties
RE: Ground Game Update
As we head into the final six weeks of this historic election, I wanted to lay out the numbers the RNC and Romney campaign ground game has posted in battleground states. Our operation is conducting the hard work, which will make the difference on Election Day and elect Mitt Romney as the 45th President of the United States.
So what is it were doing?
THE GROUND GAME, IN FOUR STAGES
Up to this point, our operation has focused primarily on the first GOTV stage: Voter Identification. In that process, weve identified more than 2.2 million swing voters since the start of the Victory voter contact program.
Swing voters are those we know are likely to vote based on their turnout records in previous elections. But they have not made up their minds on how to vote in this race, and they remain highly persuadable.
We continue to identify more swing voters, but now we are also able to do something of great significance: go back and deliver an advocacy message to those we have already located, tailored for specific issues and demographics. This is a process that continues through Election Day.
Voter identification also includes robust outreach programs in Hispanic communities across the battleground states. The Juntos con Romney coalition has spent months directly connecting with the Latino community through local events, neighborhood offices, and bilingual voter contacts.
We have also moved into the second stage of our operation: Absentee Balloting. And with more states beginning early voting, we are ramping up the third stage, Early Voting Turnout, sooner than in years past.
More Americans are expected to cast their votes early this year than in any previous election. Our ground game has been designed with this new reality in mind.
The fourth and final stage of our operation is of course Election Day Turnout. We have seen unprecedented volunteer enthusiasm and participation so far; and we expect to leverage significant momentum in those critical final days.
A RECORD-BREAKING OPERATION
By any and every measure, this years ground game is significantly moving the needle on the ground.
Overall, we have made more than 26 million voter contacts, thanks to the efforts of our 73,000 volunteers. This week, we expect to make our 30 millionth voter contact. By mid-September, we had already surpassed the 2008 operation in total volunteer voter contacts.
Weve knocked on nearly 2 million more doors than in all of 2008, and weve made six times more phone calls than at this point four years ago. (See below for a state-by-state breakdown of the numbers.)
In addition to our volunteer voter contact program, direct voter contact through an aggressive absentee ballot, persuasion, early vote and GOTV mail and phone program in our battleground states will ensure targeted voters are contacted dozens of times through our paid effort. This coupled with our unprecedented volunteer voter contact effort adds up to the largest, most sophisticated turnout program ever put on the field in Republican politics.
As the party challenging an incumbent president, we had to build the national operation largely from scratch to remain competitive with a president who has effectively been running for reelection for the last four years. We have succeeded in that challenge, which is a testament to the enthusiasm on our side.
VOLUNTEERS: THE KEY COMPONENT
A successful ground game requires many components. Careful long-term planning must precede methodical execution. Successful fundraising is necessary to build the Victory infrastructure, and as the latest numbers show, the RNC has been shattering fundraising records. But the final component is volunteers. They man the phones, knock on the doors, place the signs and recruit their friends and neighbors.
Our volunteers arent in it for themselves, or even for our party. They come to the Victory Offices and give up their Saturdays for one reason: they know we need a new direction in this country for the sake of the next generation. They know we need the leadership of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.
That, more than anything, will power this ground game to Victory on November 6th.
State-by-State Battleground Comparison to 08
Florida: 10 times more phone calls and 67 times more door knocks than this time in 08.
North Carolina: 13 times more phone calls and 130 times more door knocks than this time in 08.
Ohio: 4 times more phone calls and 30 times more door knocks than this time in 08.
Virginia: 11 times more phone calls and 12 times more door knocks than this time in 08.
Colorado: 3 times more phone calls and 5 times more door knocks than this time in 08.
Iowa: 5 times more phone calls and 16 times more door knocks than this time in 08.
New Hampshire: 3 times more phone calls and 8 times more door knocks than this time in 08.
Nevada: 4 times more phone calls and 10 times more door knocks than this time in 08.
Michigan: 4 times more phone calls and 18 times more door knocks than this time in 08.
New Mexico: 3 times more phone calls than this time in 08.
Pennsylvania: 6 times more phone calls and 44 times more door knocks than this time in 08.
Wisconsin: 5 times more phone calls and 66 times more door knocks than this time in 08
If you include the Recall election in Wisconsin, we are at 15x more calls and 10x more doors than 2008.
I've come to think of McCain as a not-very-intelligent person who has very strong convictions. It's not that he's ignorant - it's that he's incapable of learning. That lack of ground game gave us big Democratic majorities in Congress and Obamacare.
Well,it’s not 2008.
Hey, they have cocktail parties to be invited to! Don’t you care about their social lives inside the beltway? What do you want, for them to stay home alone? There’s nothing more important than being considered cool by the In People. Not even the state of the country is more important!
So, the point, if I just have to spell it out, is, why is it so thrilling that our ground game is better than it was last time we lost?
Nobody said it was thrilling, but it’s good. Mormons are the masters at door knocking, chill out.
They got this. Stop being a media victim.
These data are fascinating. Although on the table you presented the Democrat advantage in November, 2008 was 7.6 and evidently on its way to 8.8 in December, nhwingut has the 2008 figure at 5.7 but perhaps he has a different source, although Rasmussen must be consistent one would think.
It is clear that the trend in party affiliation as polled by Rasmussen is unquestionably on the up swell for Republicans. The last headline from Rasmussen that I saw said that the Republicans were edging the Democrats in voter preference for Congress by one percentage point which seems to somehow confirm the trend.
Do we know what percentage Rasmussen is polling Republicans as distinguished from Democrats and independents? I thought I had heard that he was favoring Democrats by 2%? By his own numbers he should be favoring Republicans as at August (the last month on the chart) by 4.3% and, according to nhwingut 4.6% this month (October?).
I wish I knew how Rasmussen was adjusting his polling among Republicans, Democrats and independents? Failing that, we can take 4.6% away from most of the push-poll polling results to get close to a more accurate figure. My fear is that Rasmussen is already taking 4.6% away from Democrats and still coming up a point or two short for Romney.
The problem for me is that Rasmussen who is certainly aware of the 4.5% bulge for Republicans still does not record Romney ahead nor does he have Romney performing well in the electoral college which this bulge would almost certainly produce.
Notwithstanding this confusion, we can also be reassured that this trend is supported by the trends showing decreasing Democrat registration and increasing Republican registration in all of the swing states that register by party affiliation. Although the absolute numbers, except in Colorado, count against the Republicans the trend is toward Republicans which is indicative of intensity as well as party affiliation.
There was zero ground game in 2008. Or 2004. So by definition having any ground game this year greatly exceeds what happened in those years.
Credit where credit is due: willard does have a ground game. And it’s reasonably well organized and efficient.
But there is no lack of organization or effort here.
so what happened in 08? We hit our turnout numbers and 20% voted for Obama. Don't think that will happen this time around.
“go back and deliver an advocacy message to those we have already located, tailored for specific issues and demographics. This is a process that continues through Election Day.”
This targeting/niche campaigning is one thing that did Obama much good in 2008.
Nice to see the GOP/Romney campaign picking up on what worked for him and also doing their own thing as well. Nice memo.
Is the tea party still a big factor in this election? I haven’t really heard much about them. (referencing Kolath’s post about their ground game.
I pretty much expected the tea party has vanished as a major force, at least compared to 2010. But, I would hope that’s not true.
yes....no longer having rallies but now hitting the streets and the phone banks (GOTV).
Not just them but AFP, FW and AM.
I believe new numbers will be out at the end of the month for partisan ID. Hopefully will trend more GOP or stay even. If trend more Dem, will be a bit concerned but we’ll see. Other data out looks very good.
I have lived in Northern Virginia (the battleground part of this battleground state, due largely to immigration) for about fifteen years. This year was the first time a Republican has ever come by to knock on my door, Democrats are here every cycle.
I went to a Romney rally in Fairfax a couple of weeks ago, and stood in line for a half hour to get in. Other folks were saying that it was an unusually big turnout for the area.
I have volunteered as a poll watcher. At a recent training, I heard that the Republicans are exceeding their recruiting goals.
Game on you commie @$#*@&^#^$&*@*ers!(Continued on back)
Obama Must BE Defeated!
1) according to the chart kindly cited by Stonewall Jackson, Rasmussen is talking about, "Summary of Party Affiliation" and this chart tells us that as at the last month, August, Rasmussen has party affiliation for Republicans as at August 31, 2012 at 4.3%.
Interestingly, Rasmussen has party affiliation as at August 2010 at 1.2% and as at November, 2010, at 1.3%.
[Obviously if party affiliation is now running at three times the advantage we had in 2010, we would expect to perform even better than in 2010, all things being equal. But of course, all things are never equal for example this is a presidential election year and that was a midterm cycle. Nevertheless, are we not entitled to say that turnout for Republicans will be robust because if people are polling as "affiliated" with Republicans they are more likely to come out and vote for Republicans?]
If we attempt to compare election cycle apples to election cycle apples we see that in August 2008 Rasmussen has party affiliation polling at 5.7% for Republicans and 7.6% in November on its way to 8.8% in December.
[So we do have a flip of over 10% in Republicans favor since 2008; Are we not entitled to simply strip away from any polls those points which do not reflect Republicans up 7.6%?]
2) Dick Morris in a column which appeared on these threads yesterday said that Rasmussen was the most accurate because he takes a rolling average of party affiliation in weighting Republicans vs. Democrats vs. independents among those whom he questions. Frustratingly, Morris does not tell us what these data are or have been. Nor does he explicitly state that Rasmussen is actually polling according to these numbers. Implicitly, Morris seems to except Rasmussen's numbers which show Romney either tied or slightly behind in the critical swing states.
3) I am not sure when we attempt to adjust these polls from various polling organizations if we are mixing party "affiliation" with party "identification" (whatever that difference might be) and party "registration" (which presumably means actual official data concerning people who have publicly identified themselves for the government).
4) finally we have Rasmussen providing polling data on congressional preference which the last I saw showed Republicans up 1% but they had recently lost a rather favorable lead.
The upshot of all of this is that very difficult to know what we are dealing with.
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