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RNC memo claims 2012 ground game has already surpassed 2008
Washington Examiner ^ | 09/24/2012 | Conn Carroll

Posted on 09/24/2012 7:58:10 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Republican National Committee Political Director Rick Wiley sent out a “Ground Game Update” memo to “Interested Parties” today, claiming the RNC’s 2012 voter contact efforts have already surpassed 2008 totals.

“Overall, we have made more than 26 million voter contacts, thanks to the efforts of our 73,000 volunteers. This week, we expect to make our 30 millionth voter contact. By mid-September, we had already surpassed the 2008 operation in total volunteer voter contacts,” Wiley writes. You can read the full memo below:

MEMO
FROM: RNC Political Director Rick Wiley
TO: Interested Parties
RE: Ground Game Update

As we head into the final six weeks of this historic election, I wanted to lay out the numbers the RNC and Romney campaign ground game has posted in battleground states. Our operation is conducting the hard work, which will make the difference on Election Day and elect Mitt Romney as the 45th President of the United States.

So what is it we’re doing?

THE GROUND GAME, IN FOUR STAGES

Up to this point, our operation has focused primarily on the first GOTV stage: Voter Identification. In that process, we’ve identified more than 2.2 million swing voters since the start of the Victory voter contact program.

Swing voters are those we know are likely to vote based on their turnout records in previous elections. But they have not made up their minds on how to vote in this race, and they remain highly persuadable.

We continue to identify more swing voters, but now we are also able to do something of great significance: go back and deliver an advocacy message to those we have already located, tailored for specific issues and demographics. This is a process that continues through Election Day.

Voter identification also includes robust outreach programs in Hispanic communities across the battleground states. The Juntos con Romney coalition has spent months directly connecting with the Latino community through local events, neighborhood offices, and bilingual voter contacts.

We have also moved into the second stage of our operation: Absentee Balloting. And with more states beginning early voting, we are ramping up the third stage, Early Voting Turnout, sooner than in years past.

More Americans are expected to cast their votes early this year than in any previous election. Our ground game has been designed with this new reality in mind.

The fourth and final stage of our operation is of course Election Day Turnout. We have seen unprecedented volunteer enthusiasm and participation so far; and we expect to leverage significant momentum in those critical final days.

A RECORD-BREAKING OPERATION

By any and every measure, this year’s ground game is significantly moving the needle on the ground.

Overall, we have made more than 26 million voter contacts, thanks to the efforts of our 73,000 volunteers. This week, we expect to make our 30 millionth voter contact. By mid-September, we had already surpassed the 2008 operation in total volunteer voter contacts.

We’ve knocked on nearly 2 million more doors than in all of 2008, and we’ve made six times more phone calls than at this point four years ago. (See below for a state-by-state breakdown of the numbers.)

In addition to our volunteer voter contact program, direct voter contact through an aggressive absentee ballot, persuasion, early vote and GOTV mail and phone program in our battleground states will ensure targeted voters are contacted dozens of times through our paid effort. This coupled with our unprecedented volunteer voter contact effort adds up to the largest, most sophisticated turnout program ever put on the field in Republican politics.

As the party challenging an incumbent president, we had to build the national operation largely from scratch to remain competitive with a president who has effectively been running for reelection for the last four years. We have succeeded in that challenge, which is a testament to the enthusiasm on our side.

VOLUNTEERS: THE KEY COMPONENT

A successful ground game requires many components. Careful long-term planning must precede methodical execution. Successful fundraising is necessary to build the Victory infrastructure, and as the latest numbers show, the RNC has been shattering fundraising records. But the final component is volunteers. They man the phones, knock on the doors, place the signs and recruit their friends and neighbors.

Our volunteers aren’t in it for themselves, or even for our party. They come to the Victory Offices and give up their Saturdays for one reason: they know we need a new direction in this country for the sake of the next generation. They know we need the leadership of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.

That, more than anything, will power this ground game to Victory on November 6th.

***

State-by-State Battleground Comparison to ’08

• Florida: 10 times more phone calls and 67 times more door knocks than this time in ’08.
• North Carolina: 13 times more phone calls and 130 times more door knocks than this time in ’08.
• Ohio: 4 times more phone calls and 30 times more door knocks than this time in ’08.
• Virginia: 11 times more phone calls and 12 times more door knocks than this time in ’08.
• Colorado: 3 times more phone calls and 5 times more door knocks than this time in ’08.
• Iowa: 5 times more phone calls and 16 times more door knocks than this time in ’08.
• New Hampshire: 3 times more phone calls and 8 times more door knocks than this time in ’08.
• Nevada: 4 times more phone calls and 10 times more door knocks than this time in ’08.
• Michigan: 4 times more phone calls and 18 times more door knocks than this time in ’08.
• New Mexico: 3 times more phone calls than this time in ’08.
• Pennsylvania: 6 times more phone calls and 44 times more door knocks than this time in ’08.
• Wisconsin: 5 times more phone calls and 66 times more door knocks than this time in ’08



TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: republicans; rnc

1 posted on 09/24/2012 7:58:17 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

We got slaughtered in 2008.


2 posted on 09/24/2012 8:00:03 PM PDT by JohnBrowdie (http://forum.stink-eye.net)
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To: JohnBrowdie

Have you forgotten the most recent elections?


3 posted on 09/24/2012 8:02:03 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: JohnBrowdie

And what does that mean in relation to this article?


4 posted on 09/24/2012 8:05:46 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: SeekAndFind
I was contacted 8 times this month by the FL GOP via phone and twice at two Winter park shopping centers.
They are out in full force in 2012.
5 posted on 09/24/2012 8:05:56 PM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
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To: SeekAndFind

The article didn’t mention 2010, it only referenced the last presidential election in 2008, and we got wiped out that year.

So, the point, if I just have to spell it out, is, “why is it so thrilling that our ground game is better than it was last time we lost”?


6 posted on 09/24/2012 8:06:50 PM PDT by JohnBrowdie (http://forum.stink-eye.net)
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To: SeekAndFind

Not to mention this is September - so if our ground game has already exceeded what it was by November of 2008, that is a significant increase in effort. Not sure what the point is of coming in with the comment “we got slaughtered in 2008” - makes no sense.

Being adequately funded with competent leadership also makes a difference. The ground game was severely hampered in 2010 - fortunately more of our voters were self motivated to make for it...imagine the seats that could have been won had the ground effort also been in full force.


7 posted on 09/24/2012 8:08:35 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: All

Don’t know whether it is or not but we need to throw the kitchen sink.


8 posted on 09/24/2012 8:11:39 PM PDT by BrianE ("Dead at 25 buried at 65 the average American" - Benjamin Franklin 1776)
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To: Republican Wildcat

ROmney is an excellent manager of large scale operations. If he beats the prince it will be with his ground game and I believe Romney is equipped to do just that.


9 posted on 09/24/2012 8:13:24 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (.)
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To: SeekAndFind

In 2008 Rasmussen had the partisan split as D+5.7.
Obama won 7 points.

This month Rasmussen has the partisan split as R+4.6 (highest ever recorded) - a 10+ turnaround.

Do the math.


10 posted on 09/24/2012 8:20:11 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: jwalsh07

Maybe that is why he chose to allow most of the campaign money to be housed with the RNC...hate or love what they have done in the past, they are the chief funders and organizers of the GOTV effort.


11 posted on 09/24/2012 8:23:41 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: SeekAndFind

McCain took the public matching, so he COULDN’T afford that kind of ground game.


12 posted on 09/24/2012 8:25:05 PM PDT by Dr. Sivana ("I have a new zest for life!"--Calvin from Las Vegas)
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To: JohnBrowdie

2008 was such an unusual election that Jesus, Himself, could have run and still lost big.

I think most Republicans are very much determined to make up for what happened. They will not get fooled again.


13 posted on 09/24/2012 8:31:25 PM PDT by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
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To: jwalsh07

I trust Romney as to his organizational skills and his management skills.

I think if he loses the election, it won’t be because he didn’t have a good organization or didn’t manage it well.


14 posted on 09/24/2012 8:53:10 PM PDT by Persevero (Homeschooling for Excellence since 1992)
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To: SeekAndFind

???? 2008? Kidding?


15 posted on 09/24/2012 8:53:37 PM PDT by sickoflibs (Romney is still a liberal. Just watch him. (Obama-ney Care ))
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

It probably isn’t much of a claim to surpass the voter contact in 2008, but regardless, I get the sense that the RR campaign is much more focussed, coherent, and professional.

Romney kicked the ass of every other contender, and did it without taking OPEC money — more than one can say for Obama, plus an alleged Republican one could mention.

Thanks SeekAndFind.


16 posted on 09/24/2012 9:00:32 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: SeekAndFind

This can’t be true. The media says Romney is a horrible candidate, Bill Kristol says Romney is stupid and arrogant, Joe Scarborough can’t find one thing positive about Romney’s campaign, David Brooks can’t see a crease in Romney’s slacks, Peggy Noonan thinks Romney talks when he should shut up, and the list goes on and on and on.....


17 posted on 09/24/2012 9:04:27 PM PDT by dupree
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To: All

Question: Is this just the RNC/GOP or are they also counting the efforts of Freedom Works, American Majority, AFP and countless Tea Parties?

If it’s just the RNC/GOP, and if you add the above-mentioned entities (also individual/small groups), it could even be higher.

Like a football team, having a good “ground game” is fundamental (not mention opening up the passing routes)!

THREE YARDS AND A CLOUD OF DIRT....SMASH-MOUTH FOOTBALL AT IT’S FINEST!!! Come fourth quarter, you tired out the opposing side!!!!


18 posted on 09/24/2012 9:29:59 PM PDT by Kolath
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To: nhwingut
Do you have a source for these data?


19 posted on 09/24/2012 9:39:05 PM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: SeekAndFind

No doubt the ground game is way better this year in CO than at any time since I have been involved in GOTV. That goes back to 2002.


20 posted on 09/24/2012 9:42:29 PM PDT by ModelBreaker
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To: nathanbedford
Here's what I was able to find.
21 posted on 09/24/2012 9:48:27 PM PDT by Stonewall Jackson ("I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy.")
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To: SeekAndFind

If you include the Recall election in Wisconsin, we are at 15x more calls and 10x more doors than 2008.


22 posted on 09/24/2012 10:04:47 PM PDT by Thunder90 (Kick Obama out of the White House in 2012.)
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To: Dr. Sivana
McCain took the public matching, so he COULDN’T afford that kind of ground game.

I've come to think of McCain as a not-very-intelligent person who has very strong convictions. It's not that he's ignorant - it's that he's incapable of learning. That lack of ground game gave us big Democratic majorities in Congress and Obamacare.

23 posted on 09/24/2012 10:19:46 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: JohnBrowdie

Well,it’s not 2008.


24 posted on 09/24/2012 11:10:12 PM PDT by UltraV
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To: dupree

Hey, they have cocktail parties to be invited to! Don’t you care about their social lives inside the beltway? What do you want, for them to stay home alone? There’s nothing more important than being considered cool by the In People. Not even the state of the country is more important!


25 posted on 09/24/2012 11:10:33 PM PDT by UltraV
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To: JohnBrowdie

So, the point, if I just have to spell it out, is, “why is it so thrilling that our ground game is better than it was last time we lost”?

Nobody said it was thrilling, but it’s good. Mormons are the masters at door knocking, chill out.

They got this. Stop being a media victim.


26 posted on 09/24/2012 11:24:57 PM PDT by SaxxonWoods (....The days are long, but the years are short.....)
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To: Stonewall Jackson; nhwingut
Thanks, Old Blue Light,

These data are fascinating. Although on the table you presented the Democrat advantage in November, 2008 was 7.6 and evidently on its way to 8.8 in December, nhwingut has the 2008 figure at 5.7 but perhaps he has a different source, although Rasmussen must be consistent one would think.

It is clear that the trend in party affiliation as polled by Rasmussen is unquestionably on the up swell for Republicans. The last headline from Rasmussen that I saw said that the Republicans were edging the Democrats in voter preference for Congress by one percentage point which seems to somehow confirm the trend.

Do we know what percentage Rasmussen is polling Republicans as distinguished from Democrats and independents? I thought I had heard that he was favoring Democrats by 2%? By his own numbers he should be favoring Republicans as at August (the last month on the chart) by 4.3% and, according to nhwingut 4.6% this month (October?).

I wish I knew how Rasmussen was adjusting his polling among Republicans, Democrats and independents? Failing that, we can take 4.6% away from most of the push-poll polling results to get close to a more accurate figure. My fear is that Rasmussen is already taking 4.6% away from Democrats and still coming up a point or two short for Romney.

The problem for me is that Rasmussen who is certainly aware of the 4.5% bulge for Republicans still does not record Romney ahead nor does he have Romney performing well in the electoral college which this bulge would almost certainly produce.

Notwithstanding this confusion, we can also be reassured that this trend is supported by the trends showing decreasing Democrat registration and increasing Republican registration in all of the swing states that register by party affiliation. Although the absolute numbers, except in Colorado, count against the Republicans the trend is toward Republicans which is indicative of intensity as well as party affiliation.


27 posted on 09/24/2012 11:49:25 PM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: SeekAndFind

There was zero ground game in 2008. Or 2004. So by definition having any ground game this year greatly exceeds what happened in those years.

Credit where credit is due: willard does have a ground game. And it’s reasonably well organized and efficient.


28 posted on 09/25/2012 2:58:31 AM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Arms really ARE for hugging!)
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To: RKBA Democrat
There was zero ground game in 2008. Or 2004.

2004 had a very good ground game by the Bush/Cheney Campaign.

I remember in the afternoon some of the presstitutes started claiming that Ohio was going for Kerry and one of the Bush Campaign GOTV leaders (I think it was Ralph Reed) was on the radio saying the clams were BS because the Bush Campaign had met/exceeded their GOTV numbers there.

2008 did indeed suck, but there was a lot of talk that McCain, ever the "independent/maverick" decided not to reuse the Bush operation. Romney has been criticized for being the "Bush's candidate" this cycle, but right now that's a good thing if he's got and is using the 2004 playbook.
29 posted on 09/25/2012 3:30:29 AM PDT by tanknetter
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To: JohnBrowdie
In 08, the McCain team took the Rove/Bush 2004 ground game and cut it in half. Obama doubled it. As best I can tell locally here in OH, we have doubled Obama's effort. It's extremely impressive, and In contrast I'm seeing no Obama ground game. Now maybe I'm looking in the wrong places---I haven't looked under rocks yet.

But there is no lack of organization or effort here.

30 posted on 09/25/2012 3:36:25 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: tanknetter; snarkytart
Not to beat my drum---because a number of Freepers remember how off I was in 2008---but here on FR in 2008 I had just come back from poll flushing at 10 a.m. and knew we were reaching our targets, only to find Drudge and the drive-bys citing "exit polls" saying Kerry won. I had to calm people down. When I went for the second poll flushing at 4, we knew the red turnout meant Bush had already won--- but the drive-bys continued.

so what happened in 08? We hit our turnout numbers and 20% voted for Obama. Don't think that will happen this time around.

31 posted on 09/25/2012 3:46:05 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: SeekAndFind; All

“go back and deliver an advocacy message to those we have already located, tailored for specific issues and demographics. This is a process that continues through Election Day.”

This targeting/niche campaigning is one thing that did Obama much good in 2008.

Nice to see the GOP/Romney campaign picking up on what worked for him and also doing their own thing as well. Nice memo.


32 posted on 09/25/2012 7:11:31 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Kolath; All

Is the tea party still a big factor in this election? I haven’t really heard much about them. (referencing Kolath’s post about their ground game.

I pretty much expected the tea party has vanished as a major force, at least compared to 2010. But, I would hope that’s not true.


33 posted on 09/25/2012 7:21:18 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: rwfromkansas

yes....no longer having rallies but now hitting the streets and the phone banks (GOTV).

Not just them but AFP, FW and AM.


34 posted on 09/25/2012 7:23:08 PM PDT by Kolath
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To: nathanbedford

I believe new numbers will be out at the end of the month for partisan ID. Hopefully will trend more GOP or stay even. If trend more Dem, will be a bit concerned but we’ll see. Other data out looks very good.


35 posted on 09/25/2012 7:24:24 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: SeekAndFind

I have lived in Northern Virginia (the battleground part of this battleground state, due largely to immigration) for about fifteen years. This year was the first time a Republican has ever come by to knock on my door, Democrats are here every cycle.

I went to a Romney rally in Fairfax a couple of weeks ago, and stood in line for a half hour to get in. Other folks were saying that it was an unusually big turnout for the area.

I have volunteered as a poll watcher. At a recent training, I heard that the Republicans are exceeding their recruiting goals.

Game on you commie @$#*@&^#^$&*@*ers!(Continued on back)

Obama Must BE Defeated!


36 posted on 09/25/2012 9:09:14 PM PDT by BeauBo
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To: rwfromkansas
I am standing on shifting Sands and it is maddening:

1) according to the chart kindly cited by Stonewall Jackson, Rasmussen is talking about, "Summary of Party Affiliation" and this chart tells us that as at the last month, August, Rasmussen has party affiliation for Republicans as at August 31, 2012 at 4.3%.

Interestingly, Rasmussen has party affiliation as at August 2010 at – 1.2% and as at November, 2010, at 1.3%.

[Obviously if party affiliation is now running at three times the advantage we had in 2010, we would expect to perform even better than in 2010, all things being equal. But of course, all things are never equal for example this is a presidential election year and that was a midterm cycle. Nevertheless, are we not entitled to say that turnout for Republicans will be robust because if people are polling as "affiliated" with Republicans they are more likely to come out and vote for Republicans?]

If we attempt to compare election cycle apples to election cycle apples we see that in August 2008 Rasmussen has party affiliation polling at – 5.7% for Republicans and 7.6% in November on its way to 8.8% in December.

[So we do have a flip of over 10% in Republicans favor since 2008; Are we not entitled to simply strip away from any polls those points which do not reflect Republicans up 7.6%?]

2) Dick Morris in a column which appeared on these threads yesterday said that Rasmussen was the most accurate because he takes a rolling average of party affiliation in weighting Republicans vs. Democrats vs. independents among those whom he questions. Frustratingly, Morris does not tell us what these data are or have been. Nor does he explicitly state that Rasmussen is actually polling according to these numbers. Implicitly, Morris seems to except Rasmussen's numbers which show Romney either tied or slightly behind in the critical swing states.

3) I am not sure when we attempt to adjust these polls from various polling organizations if we are mixing party "affiliation" with party "identification" (whatever that difference might be) and party "registration" (which presumably means actual official data concerning people who have publicly identified themselves for the government).

4) finally we have Rasmussen providing polling data on congressional preference which the last I saw showed Republicans up 1% but they had recently lost a rather favorable lead.

The upshot of all of this is that very difficult to know what we are dealing with.


37 posted on 09/25/2012 9:10:42 PM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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