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Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Romney 47% - Obama 46%)
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 9/13/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

Posted on 09/13/2012 6:41:07 AM PDT by Palmetto Patriot

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 46% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

This is the first time in a week that Romney has held even a single-point advantage. See daily tracking history. Romney is now supported by 18% of white Democrats.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; rasmussen

1 posted on 09/13/2012 6:41:12 AM PDT by Palmetto Patriot
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To: Palmetto Patriot

ruh roh.

“But...but...what about the bounce? Oh, don’t worry, once Romney’s missteps on Libya are factored in, obama will be back on top by six!”

Riiiiiight.....


2 posted on 09/13/2012 6:43:33 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: Palmetto Patriot
Romney is now supported by 18% of white Democrats.

I'll bet there are at least 5-10% more who will pull the lever for Romney, but don't want to tell anyone, i.e. there fellow RAT union members or libtards.

3 posted on 09/13/2012 6:44:27 AM PDT by MrDem (Founder: Democrats for Cheney/Palin 2012)
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To: Palmetto Patriot

This is an encouraging poll. Now to just see some more swing states swing to Romney.


4 posted on 09/13/2012 6:44:46 AM PDT by the_boy_who_got_lost
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To: ConservativeDude

Romney didn’t “misstep”, no matter how the media is attempting to portray his statement.

He told the truth about 0bama and his administration.

This, to a leftist, is a grievous outrage.


5 posted on 09/13/2012 6:45:37 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working fors)
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To: Palmetto Patriot

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide,


That is a good feel good position to be in but the real question becomes who is winning in the 8 to 12 swing states? Those swing states will determine the next president.


6 posted on 09/13/2012 6:46:41 AM PDT by deport
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To: Palmetto Patriot

how accurate is this poll? every poll I see shows something different...


7 posted on 09/13/2012 6:47:53 AM PDT by wyowolf
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To: Palmetto Patriot

and that’s with a whole lot of us Right Wingers continuing to lie to pollsters (for entertainment purposes only)


8 posted on 09/13/2012 6:50:31 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Palmetto Patriot

How can this be, Peggy Noonan and all the chicken littles said all hope was lost. OMG what will they cry about now?


9 posted on 09/13/2012 6:50:49 AM PDT by italianquaker ( 17 percent of the tea partiers support barry obama, the fox poll said so lol)
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To: wyowolf

Not that this means anything this time around but as I recall, Rasmussen was the most accurate pollster in 2008.


10 posted on 09/13/2012 6:51:29 AM PDT by Personal Responsibility (In times of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act - 1984)
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To: Palmetto Patriot

Surprise, Surprise, the first 3 day poll of the week that doesn’t include WEEKEND numbers, and Obama is back down... Shocking I say.. shocking...

The only numbers in any 3 day worth mentioning are going to be thursday, friday, and saturday release numbers, they are the only ones that don’t contain weekend polling in them.

Polls still aren’t remotely capturing what’s on the ground, Obama has an absolute max support of 42-43% on his best day. Election day I really think the fool will be lucky to see 40% of the vote.


11 posted on 09/13/2012 6:53:32 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: MrDem
I'll bet there are at least 5-10% more who will pull the lever for Romney, but don't want to tell anyone, i.e. there fellow RAT union members or libtards.

I don't know about that, however here in Suburban Cook county I come into contact with a lot of the White Liberal Democrats. I don't think I could ever get them to vote for a Republican. However a lot of my WLD neighbors are talking about staying home in disgust. Something that I encourage them to do. After all while there is no chance of Romney winning Illinois, there is a chance we could hold on to my House district if enough Democrats don't show up on election day.
12 posted on 09/13/2012 6:53:32 AM PDT by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: wyowolf
how accurate is this poll?

Rasmussen graded most accurate in 2008.

2008 Pollster Report Card

13 posted on 09/13/2012 6:54:32 AM PDT by Palmetto Patriot (2010 All Over Again. Make it happen. Get Busy!)
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To: MrB

Right on. When the entire left is lockstep united in its diagnosis, you can be sure the diagnosis is simple: it is 180 degrees opposite of what they just said.

Same with the Eastwood speech, incidentally.....

(And, apparently, the same with the great obama/Clinton bounce! More on that in a week or so, though!)


14 posted on 09/13/2012 6:58:34 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: Palmetto Patriot

The thrill is gone.


15 posted on 09/13/2012 7:00:14 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: Buckeye McFrog
I'm sorry, I can't lie to pollsters. Just thinking about pretending to be a Dem make me ill.

I got a call from one last night

"Hi, mister Dubya? I'm sorry to bother you, my name is blah blah blah and I'm calling on behalf of the Obama Campaign".

Me: "Hahahahaha!! Yeah, I'm sorry you bothered me too." (slams phone down)

16 posted on 09/13/2012 7:02:55 AM PDT by Dubya-M-Dees (Little HOPE... No CHANGE)
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To: Palmetto Patriot

Do this this poll reflect the events in the ME ?
Saturday’s may be more meaningful


17 posted on 09/13/2012 7:03:47 AM PDT by uncbob
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To: Palmetto Patriot
Photobucket
18 posted on 09/13/2012 7:10:25 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: uncbob

“Do this this poll reflect the events in the ME ?
Saturday’s may be more meaningful”

True... and be prepared for a short-term bump for Obama from a “rally-to-the-flag” effect of the events in Egypt and Libya. It’s a natural response, regardless of who’s in the White House.


19 posted on 09/13/2012 7:11:21 AM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: MrB
Romney didn’t “misstep”, no matter how the media is attempting to portray his statement. He told the truth about 0bama and his administration. This, to a leftist, is a grievous outrage.

So true. I agree with Dick Morris - Romney is going to win in a landslide and the left knows it.

20 posted on 09/13/2012 7:12:12 AM PDT by From The Deer Stand
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To: MrB

It is the President’s responsibility to advise the nominee on matters of national security during a crisis. What was Romney to do? He would have looked bad had he not said anything. Obama should have briefed Romney and craft a common statement. But Obama figured Romney was going to say something, and his lackeys in the media would then pounce on Romney for saying it.....the man has no shame.


21 posted on 09/13/2012 7:14:36 AM PDT by dfwgator (I'm voting for Ryan and that other guy.)
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To: ConservativeDude
A cynical voice inside me says let Obama have it. This thing is so messed up now...if Romney were to step in, just as the roof caves in, he will be blamed for the entire calamity.

Four more years of Obama and he will have no escape from accountability. The blame will be placed squarely on his shoulders...while putting us back to the Dark Ages.

22 posted on 09/13/2012 7:18:11 AM PDT by Awgie (truth is always stranger than fiction)
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To: MrDem

Various polls show Romney getting roughly 20% of the democratic vote.. Independents will break easily in the range of 2-1 for Romney... The very idea this is a “close” election is pure propoganda folks.

Lets just say for a minute, that the 20% is only white democrats, as mentioned in this poll (its not, its about 20% of overall democrats, but lets just keep it to that level for now)... White Democrats are the SINGLE LARGERST BLOC OF DEMOCRATIC VOTERS, period. You can’t lose 20% of them, and think everything’s okay. The overal breakdown is about 30-30-40 R, D, I.. now these numbers vary somewhat between elections, but that’s the general breakdown... Currently WHITES make up 63% of registered democrats!

So, losing 20% of them, based on a 30% number of the overall population is about 12% of the democratic voting! Now that means OVER 10% of your overall BASE has no intention of voting for your candidate!! 10%!!! That’s insurmountable folkd. 10% of your registered party members (if you just keep it to just 20% of whites) aren’t going to vote for you, and you are losing independents by 15% or more in most polls!!! yet these same polls are trying to tell you the election is close??? Its not mathematically possible folks!!! The ONLY way you get there is by oversampling democrats.. that’s the ONLY way you can get your overall poll to show a Sitting Politician who if they lst just 3% of their vote total from their previous election would LOSE this election, could be down 7% of the overall voting population! (12% of the Democratic vote = 3.6% of overall vote, and losing the independent vote by 14 points means that 40% independent voter you are only going to get 43% of 40% of the overall vote, is a 7% deficit to EVEN, in a group you WON last time, that 7% deficite, to even, let alone the deficit to where you were last time since you won independents by more than 50% is another 2.8% ov the overall vote. So, even with this polls very generous internals to Obama, the math tells you, he’s down over 6 points from 2008 at LEAST (6.4% to be exact), and that makes his overall number using 2008 as your baseline Obama will only get 46.5% of the vote.

Now if you extrapolate that 20% to the entire democratic voting base, and not just white, he’s not down 3.6% of overall vote, he’s down 6% of the overall vote, 6% + 2.8% = 8.8%! An 8.8% from 2008 makes Obama’s vote total expectation 44.1%.. Now when you factor in the deltas in enthusiam and turnout, and the fact that Obama’s will likely lose independents by far more than 14 points, Obama is down to 42-43% AT BEST for this election.

Honestly, I truly believe this fool will be lucky to see 40% on election day. It will be very interesting to see what the 3 day rollings say next thursday, when that weeks 3 day will not have weekend numbers, now that Obama’s foreign policy failures are undeniably front and center.

I fully expect Obama to lose the independent vote in the 5-2 to 2-1 range.


23 posted on 09/13/2012 7:19:37 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: wyowolf
how accurate is this poll? every poll I see shows something different...

The answer is in the internals.

"Romney has solidified the GOP vote and holds a 77-point lead among Republicans. That’s slightly larger than Obama’s 72-point advantage among Democrats."

Romney has a 5 point lead in a straight matchup of Democrat vs. Republican. Every poll for the last month shows him with a 5 point or greater lead among independents. So this poll has to be heavily weighted toward Democrats.

In 2010 Republicans turnout exceeded Democrat. Polls on party affiliation this summer indicate that Republican registration is about 1 to 2 points higher than Democrat.

Put it all together and it says Republican and Democrat turnout should be about equal or slightly Republican. Romney is sitting pretty good at the moment.

In Mid-October, the pollsters will use a more balanced Democrat-Republican mix. They have to have an accurate showing to preserve their reputation. At that time Romney's real lead will show.

24 posted on 09/13/2012 7:31:00 AM PDT by CMAC51
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To: HamiltonJay

Good analysis Hamilton but national popularity polls are meaningless. We need to look at swing states polls, if we are to believe them, in the which I think all of them have at least Romney ahead, in a dead heat or just out of the MFE. I am ignoring these polls for right now till the last week in October. They will vacillate back and forth, pollsters have to sell soap just like the rest of us will use that special sauce whenever necessary to create the illusion of a horse race. I can say the libs are acting like we did in 2008, grasping and hoping above hope for some pools to buoy their confidence. The swagger is gone , sweating from Axelrod down, gone is the aire of inevitability. The cocksure attitude of their smirking , smarmy, Trader Joes shopping, metrosexual Volkssturm has evaporated. Look at their convention, the lunacy there, and the shrillness of their shills in the media. Will Obama Democrats vote for Romney, probably not, but will they stay home like they did in 2010, I think they will. That will be the difference, I think even the most partisan liberal pundits are getting cold sweats because they know they could at best be looking at a close loss and at worst a total blowout with a loss of the Senate also.


25 posted on 09/13/2012 7:34:26 AM PDT by pburgh01 (No more GWBs, say no to Perry.)
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To: Palmetto Patriot

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26 posted on 09/13/2012 7:41:14 AM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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To: MrDem

Yeah - those racist Democrats are sneaky!!! Voting for 0bama in ‘08 just so they can turn around and vote against him now!!!!


27 posted on 09/13/2012 7:46:30 AM PDT by Chi-townChief
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To: profit_guy

Hmmm, if I am reading this breakout correctly, Obama is winning the independent vote by 2%, which seems contradictory to most other polls I have seen out there. Plus, Romney is losing every age demographic except 65+.


28 posted on 09/13/2012 7:49:21 AM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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To: CMAC51

Ok thanks, Its funny I have been monitoring the DU sites and they all think its in the bag! which makes me a little nervous that they arent worried at least a little...

The thought of 4 more years of Zero is not a pleasant thought!


29 posted on 09/13/2012 7:50:38 AM PDT by wyowolf
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To: wyowolf

This website has been cited here before; it recalculates the polls to try to get a more realistic assessment:

\\http://polls2012.blogspot.com/


30 posted on 09/13/2012 8:16:07 AM PDT by randmwood (polls)
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To: Palmetto Patriot

Romney ahead in this poll?

Guess Mr. Rasmussen will soon get a midnight visit from Holder’s Gestapo - er, I mean Justice Dept. - over how his sampling methods need to be “improved”, or else a bogus lawsuit may have to be filed against his polling firm.


31 posted on 09/13/2012 8:23:57 AM PDT by canuck_conservative
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To: MrB

“Romney didn’t “misstep”, no matter how the media is attempting to portray his statement.”

To the liberal media, which is an extention of the Obama campaign, you START with criticizing Romney, and then you build your reality around that premise.The media created a frenzy and wanted Romney to back down. RINO wimps do that, ya know.

But he didnt.

Romney led, did the right thing, said the right thing, and correctly criticized the craven apology out of Cairo.

Night before last, the President condemned Mitt Romney in harsher tones than he condemned the rioters. It took him until sun up yesterday to condemn them. So who’s politicizing more here?

This is playing out in a way that makes Romney look like Reagan and Obama like Carter.


32 posted on 09/13/2012 8:25:53 AM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: Awgie

Don’t listen to that cynical voice. We will not have a chance to turn this around in 4 years. We have to stop the fiscal bleeding now. Blame is irrelevant, this is now life and death.


33 posted on 09/13/2012 8:28:04 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Chi-townChief

In 2008 0bama was a blank slate mouthing platitudes. Average Democrats could define his positions any way they wanted

In 2012 0bama is a known quantity. Average Dems now know what he actually stands for.


34 posted on 09/13/2012 8:32:16 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: MNJohnnie

It’s not about blame or preventing the crash, it’s about who’s in power when it does crash and what he’ll do in response to it.


35 posted on 09/13/2012 8:32:51 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working fors)
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To: MNJohnnie
In 2012 0bama is a known quantity. Average Dems now know what he actually stands for.

Which puts them four years behind us, but at least they caught up a little.
36 posted on 09/13/2012 8:33:16 AM PDT by DaveInDallas
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To: Palmetto Patriot

Romney MUST MUST MUST take the attack to Obama! Yesterday’s correct comments by Romney about the administration’s gutless, pathetic comments from the Cairo dhimmis certainly made it to the media hit parade! So Romney can get his message out IF he wants too. And it’s clear from yesterday’s concerted attempts by the MSM to castigate Romney that he only need attack Obama to be heard across the nation.
He MUST expose Obama as the MArxist, America-hating thug he is. The truth will get conservative voters to the polls. Wimpy, piss-ant, McCain-type statements will net Romney NOTHING, just as they did Miss McCain in 2008. Nothing but voters so disgusted by his lack of guts that they stay at home on election day.


37 posted on 09/13/2012 8:34:09 AM PDT by Oldpuppymax
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To: Oldpuppymax

He cannot go back to being Milquetoast Mitt, he’s got this now. They’re panicking. They didn’t expect this from Mitt, and they’re freaking out about it.


38 posted on 09/13/2012 8:35:30 AM PDT by dfwgator (I'm voting for Ryan and that other guy.)
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To: wyowolf
The Leftists always believe they have it in the bag then the day after the election they squeal about how they evil Right "stole" the election.

The Left are masters of simply tuning out any inconvenient data and lying to themselves. The major difference between their analysis and what you see here is they post their feelings while people here usually back up their analysis with actual data from the polling.

39 posted on 09/13/2012 8:35:56 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: DaveInDallas

The other thing to note is Obama started slipping with Democrats after the Convention. There are still a whole of of Democrats who “cling to their God and their Guns” who are not amused by what they saw at the DNC


40 posted on 09/13/2012 8:38:12 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: DaveInDallas

Yep but I will take late rather then never from them. 4 years was bad enough, 4 more we will not survive


41 posted on 09/13/2012 8:39:42 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Tennessean4Bush

you have to include the Likely and Lean voters


42 posted on 09/13/2012 9:32:41 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: Personal Responsibility
Not that this means anything this time around but as I recall, Rasmussen was the most accurate pollster in 2008.

Yep, and he was top four or five most accurate in 2004 out of approximately 25 pollsters.
43 posted on 09/13/2012 10:58:35 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: From The Deer Stand

Oh boy, Dickey is never right.


44 posted on 09/13/2012 11:00:59 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: randmwood

I would not trust this website. The CNN/ORC poll for (n=709) Likely Voters that was released on 09/10/2012. It states that the political ID breakdown for said poll is (R/D/I) of:

34.21% (R),
43.86% (D),
09.65% (I).

The actual political ID breakdown for that CNN/ORC poll is closer to:

28.70% (R),
38.96% (D),
32.35% (I).

When an analysis site gets the basic political ID breakdown so far off, you have to question all of their derived numbers. The number of Independents the site implies was in the sample is way too low...

dvwjr


45 posted on 09/13/2012 4:48:19 PM PDT by dvwjr
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To: Palmetto Patriot

Thanks for posting.


46 posted on 09/13/2012 8:50:56 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: wyowolf

Rasmussen is gold.

This is the poll.

Very, good to see!


47 posted on 09/14/2012 7:07:58 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (America doesn't need any new laws. America needs freedom!)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

Today’s is better:

Per Rasmussen- R 48% O 45%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


48 posted on 09/14/2012 7:15:16 AM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet)
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