If Romney keeps that 10%+ advantage over Indies, we win. Our side is hyper motivated. The middle is on our side. That formula wins every time.
All the polls are showing Romney up more than 10 pts among independents. Obama is still LOSING.
This REALLY means that Romney is now way ahead since that D/R/I ratio is way too skewed towards democrats.
I don’t put much stock in ANY polls at this point being just a few days removed from the convention, but for those who live and die by the daily polls, I hope this finally puts them at ease a bit.
The way I see it, Obama got a small bounce out of the convention, which should have been expected since the Dems got to have their convention last. This is why the party in power always chooses to hold theirs last. But the convention did nothing to change the fundamentals of this race.
I’m not completely 100% sure of a Romney victory, mainly because I still worry about him being aggressive enough and about making enough Americans aware of the fact that Obama’s far more than just a nice guy in over his head (the 3rd party Super-Pacs will likely need to be the ones to make that case).
AND, with the wizards of smart on our side shoving Romney down our throats, we gave away one of our most potent issues-Obamacare and the larger issue of government takeover of as much of our lives as they can get away with.
That really only leaves us with the economy, and puts us in the position of almost hoping that the economic news isn’t TOO good that it might help Obama. Plus, I guess with Ryan on the ticket, we are also debating entitlement reform, although I haven’t seen that play out too much so far.
Overall, it’s kind of like running this race with one hand tied behind our backs. We should be smoking this guy, but we’re not because we’ve made the campaign almost solely about the economy and the “are you better off” question. Because of the dismal state of our economy, this alone may well be more than enough to win, but to me it feels way too close for comfort to be running such a close race when we could easily be winning this thing going away.
An analyst on Fox was saying yesterday that these polls are also oversampling Black voters, they are using the 2008 turnout models that had blacks voting at a historic high of 15% of the electorate. In 2010 the black turnout was only 10% of the electorate (33% lower than 2008). Virtually no political analyst believes we will see a repeat of the record black turnout from 2008, it will probably be slightly higher than 2010 because Obama is on the ballot but still only in the 11% or 12%. The result of this according to the analyst was that pollsters are overestimating Obama’s total by 3% to 4%.
33/27/36
Baby’s got back.
POLL: RACE TIGHT AS OBAMA EDGE NARROWS TO 2 PTS... SWING STATE DAILY TRACKING: O 46%, R 45%...
CNN: OBAMA +6...
POLLED MORE DEMS?
ABCNEWSWASHPOST LIKELY VOTERS: O 49% R 48%...
... SURVEYED 33% DEMOCRAT, 23% REPUBLICAN
GALLUP FLASHBACK: MONDALE TOPS REAGAN...
WHICH POLLS WERE MOST ACCURATE IN '08?
Please folks DON'T you see the pattern here how the liberal buttkissing black turd pollsters are trying to shape the electoral for their messiah and going all out to demoralize our side? Don't spend too much time concentrating on polls, GO out and work for the R&R team! I betcha the ObombO team are also shaking in their boots much more so because they know it's going to be TEA TIME come Nov! I'm telling you there is a MO out there not so much for Romney, but for the love of country...SO STAY THE COURSE and FIGHT!!
I wouldn't take anything from the MSM to the bank, I would be arrested for counterfeiting.
The theory:
Pollsters initially agreed to go along with “Operation Dispirit the Opposition”.
They were quickly called on it and exposed.
Knowing what the real internals are, they are thus opting to
save their credibility.
Remember the Alamo?
REMEMBER CHIK-FIL-A!
No worries, the silent Americans will vote in force - landslide forthcoming.
Remember the Alamo?
REMEMBER CHIK-FIL-A!
No worries, the silent Americans will vote in force - landslide forthcoming.
A double-digit lead among independents is impressive. This article is encouraging, and I want to believe it, but I won’t rest easy until Romney is leading in polls across the board.
We're seeing this kind of result among independents in poll after poll. No democrat or Republican can win if the independents are against you 54/43! Period! My guess is that 54/43 will be pretty close to the final result among all voters in November.
They see an opportunity to keep the PV within 3 points and thus possible save the Senate and force Mittens into unjust compromises on Supreme Court nominees.