An analyst on Fox was saying yesterday that these polls are also oversampling Black voters, they are using the 2008 turnout models that had blacks voting at a historic high of 15% of the electorate. In 2010 the black turnout was only 10% of the electorate (33% lower than 2008). Virtually no political analyst believes we will see a repeat of the record black turnout from 2008, it will probably be slightly higher than 2010 because Obama is on the ballot but still only in the 11% or 12%. The result of this according to the analyst was that pollsters are overestimating Obama’s total by 3% to 4%.
NONE of this takes into account the simple truth that there are many Dems who voted for Obama last time who will not vote for him this time (some will vote R), while there is likely not a single McCain voter who will vote FOR Obama this time. That's going to prove to be one of the most significant undercounted aspects of this race. It will stun the pundits just as we were stunned on election night in 08 when we surveyed a deep red suburb of Dayton and found that a full 25% had voted for Obama.