NONE of this takes into account the simple truth that there are many Dems who voted for Obama last time who will not vote for him this time (some will vote R), while there is likely not a single McCain voter who will vote FOR Obama this time. That's going to prove to be one of the most significant undercounted aspects of this race. It will stun the pundits just as we were stunned on election night in 08 when we surveyed a deep red suburb of Dayton and found that a full 25% had voted for Obama.
The black business community has been gradually drifting away from the support of Barack Obama. Harry C. Alford, president and CEO of the National Black Chamber of Commerce, which represents nearly two million black businessmen in the United States, said the following:
"When Obama became president we were all happy about the symbolism - America's first black president. We really didn't care about his position and views on anything. We just wanted a black president no matter what. We should have been more careful, as his views on small business, especially black business, are counter to ours. His view of business is that it should be a few major corporations which are totally unionized and working with the government, which should also be massive and reaching every level of American society. Thus his first Executive Order was the reinstatement of Project Labor Agreements in government contracting. PLAs give labor unions an exclusive option in construction jobs - all participating firms must use union labor or, at least, pay union wages and abide by union rules. This activity, in effect, discriminates against blacks, Hispanics, and women per se, as trade unions deliberately under employ them. President George W. Bush eliminated PLAs from federal contracting and his main reason was 'unions discriminate against small business, women and minorities.' So here we were with the first black president who deliberately discriminates against small business, women and minorities. How ironic!"