Posted on 09/11/2012 6:21:19 AM PDT by Ravi
see above
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Stop being denser than a box of rocks and stuck on stupid.
Ah. That was you, then. Gotcha.
Of the 23 major surveys conducted in the final days of the 2008 campaign, 17 overstated obama’s victory margin. 4 understated and 2 were spot on.
http://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/11/the-list-which-presidential-polls-were-most-accurate/
Re; This is the biggest election of our lifetime and we have a milquetoast p$%^y who can’t fight his way out of paper bag!
He did a good job of destroying his fellow republicans in the primaries but that was about it! grrrrr
Ray Fair, an economist at Yale, said in July Mitt Romney should win the popular vote by 1 point. His forecast for economic growth during the third quarter of 2012 (the one we’re in) appears optimistic, and so Romney should win the popular vote a tad more. So, a 3 point win by Romney isn’t below expectation, if we use Fair’s model.
BTW In November 2010, Fair was calling for a 10 point win by Obama. In January 2011, that was revised down to a 5 point win by Obama. In October 2011, a 50-50 tie.
By the way, a 3 point win in the popular vote would be less than the margin in the model developed by Colorado political scientists, that has been discussed on this site. That model predicts a 6 point win for Romney. So, that would support your argument about Romney being a lackluster campaigner.
I think a better way to put it is that Romney’s o.k. if he wins with a 1 to a 6 point lead; extra special if he wins by 7 points or more, and really, really disappointing if he loses.
Ray Fair, an economist at Yale, said in July Mitt Romney should win the popular vote by 1 point. His forecast for economic growth during the third quarter of 2012 (the one we’re in) appears optimistic, and so Romney should win the popular vote a tad more. So, a 3 point win by Romney isn’t below expectation, if we use Fair’s model.
BTW In November 2010, Fair was calling for a 10 point win by Obama. In January 2011, that was revised down to a 5 point win by Obama. In October 2011, a 50-50 tie.
By the way, a 3 point win in the popular vote would be less than the margin in the model developed by Colorado political scientists, that has been discussed on this site. That model predicts a 6 point win for Romney. So, that would support your argument about Romney being a lackluster campaigner.
I think a better way to put it is that Romney’s o.k. if he wins with a 1 to a 6 point lead; extra special if he wins by 7 points or more, and really, really disappointing if he loses.
It wasn’t alot (probably a few points) but enough to affect close election like this maybe.
R will be ahead by the end of the week.
How so? The Bradley Effect is an against vote, not a for vote.
In 2008, the vote was Anybody But McCrisis, so the vote was a thumbs down on Bush proxy McCrisis while taking the Unknown Quantity/Acceptable Challenger, plus bonus points for voting for a black guy.
This vote is Anybody But Obama. Unknown Quantity is gone, Americans know exactly who Obama is. Californians knew exactly who Bradley was, going into that gubernatorial race, they were going to vote Deukmejian, but they weren't going to tell pollsters that they were going to vote against Bradley.
Is it 5 points? No. Could it be 1-2 for Mittens? Entirely possible.
Then where is he? What the heck is he doing?He is, I am sure, busy executing his plan.
Bush trailed Kerry at this point by 3-4%. Reagan trailed Carter at this point by several percent.
The fundamentals are so plain and obvious as to why Romney will win, and it won't be close, that they do not bear repeating.
Could be Rasmussen is lying to the country remember team Obama said there going to look into Rasmussen because Obama’s numbers are low.
Capone smiles
I agree; the Bradley effect is long forgotten if it ever existed. People who like Obama are the ones who will climb over broken class to keep him there.
W have to hope the black vote isn’t a rerun of their historical high.
So you didn't donate, just ranted at he poor phone bank worker?
While I agree it'll be a tough 2 months, we expected that. It's not nearly as bad as you think it is.
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