Posted on 09/08/2012 3:09:23 PM PDT by xzins
After falling for two straight months, the number of Americans who consider themselves Republicans jumped nearly three points in August.
During August, 37.6% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 34.9% in July and 35.4% in June. It’s also the largest number of Republicans ever recorded by Rasmussen Report since monthly tracking began in November 2002. ...snip
Aug Repub 37.6% Demo 33.3% Ind 29.2% Repub +4.3%
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
ping
should have included the numbers link, too
The Dems have gone so far left that people are now waking up to what the party is really about.
Lets not forget that many Dems who are registered are too lazy to even vote and if there is an election wit no black perosn on the ballot then many blacks stay at home too.
This is odd, coupled with Rasmussen showing OZero suddenly ahead.
It could mean any number of things, to include:
1. Zero got a bounce
2. That polling to determine what party a person “feels” he’s a part of will give consistent, but varying numbers. (Party ID is a big squishy)
3. That independents might have been the ones that liked Obama’s convention.
Yes that was his reasoning.
These polls are all pure crap !
I wish I knew the real internal polls versus this BS propaganda !
Even more disturbing if Obama is leading among likely voters with a R+4 sample. Ugh.
Have the pollsters adjusted their sampling to match the new percentages? From what I’ve been reading, the answer is “No.”
I remember those bounces....and the eventual outcome. Bounces are fickle and meaningless.
People shouldn’t worry about the polls coming out this weekend.
Obama won’t have his wife and Bill Clintion in prime time in the weeks to come.
“Aug Repub 37.6% Demo 33.3% Ind 29.2% Repub +4.3%”
Shoudn’t the sampling of polls reflect this breakdown of voters as opposed to having the dems up a few points? This is more reflective of the upcoming election as opposed to the 2008 election (whose voter breakdowns are used today to sample many polls)
That means he did NOT oversample dems by +2. These are his numbers for this year. He is by far the most fair of the pollsters.
| Republican | Democrat | Other | R - D | Quarterly | |||||||||
| 2012 | |||||||||||||
| Aug | 37.6% | 33.3% | 29.2% | 4.3% | |||||||||
| Jul | 34.9% | 34.0% | 31.1% | 0.9% | |||||||||
| Jun | 35.4% | 34.0% | 30.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | ||||||||
| May | 35.7% | 33.8% | 30.5% | 1.9% | |||||||||
| Apr | 35.1% | 33.1% | 31.8% | 2.0% | |||||||||
| Mar | 36.4% | 33.4% | 30.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | ||||||||
| Feb | 36.0% | 32.4% | 31.6% | 3.6% | |||||||||
| Jan | 35.9% | 32.5% | 31.6% | 3.4% | |||||||||
Correct me if I’m wrong. But it would seem to me that all these polls that have this thing close or BO ahead are probably not using correct samples. Don’t most of them question more Democrats than Republicans?
The other pollsters don’t use Rasmussen’s results. They use their own. They also use “history” and “census data” to refine (special sauce) their party affiliation numbers.
“I heard a while ago on FOX News that Jimmy Carter had a 13 point bounce coming out of the convention in 1980. Eight years later Dukakis had an 18 point bounce. “
And imagine if FR was around back then? Half of the people here would have a shotgun in their mouths.
I don’t think more people call themselves Republican because they like BO.
Let’s say they randomly question 2000 in a night based on other demographics like sex, age, income, etc..
They then determine which are republicans, democrats, and others.
Then they take their weightings, in this case 37, 33, 29 and randomly select 37% republicans, 33% democrats, and 29% others until they reach their desired sample size. I believe Rasmussen’s rolling is 1500.
That’s my understanding of how this works. I’m no pollster, so I’m open to correction.
Bush 49% Kerry 49%
Final results were:
Bush 50.7% Kerry 48.3%
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0922901.html
http://www.gallup.com/poll/13873/final-poll-shows-presidential-race-dead-heat.aspx
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