Posted on 08/13/2012 11:32:47 AM PDT by barmag25
Keeping up with the poll numbers.
Current poll numbers from Real Clear Politics shows Obama winning with a large victory. 332-206 Obama victory (with no toss ups) the problem with this is that RCP uses a polling average. This average includes such sources as CBS, NYT, PPP, Quinnipiac, we ask America, Mason-Dixie, Rasmussen, Fox news, & Purple strategies. If you remove all except for Rasmussen (most reliable source in my opinion) the race looks completely different. First let’s remove the safe states.
Solid Obama: California-55, DC-3, Illinois-20, Mass-11, RI-4, Delaware-3, Hawaii-4, Maryland-10, New York-29, Vermont-3, Connecticut-7, Maine-4, New Jersey-14, Washington-12, Minnesota-10, New Mexico-5, Oregon-7.
Total for Obama- 201
Solid Romney: Alabama-9, Arkansas-6, Kansas-6, Louisiana-8, Nebraska-5, Utah-6, Wyoming-3, Alaska-3, Idaho-4, Kentucky-8, Mississippi-6, Oklahoma-7, West Virginia-5, North Dakota-3, South Dakota-3, Tennessee-11, Texas-38, Indiana-11, Montana-3, South Carolina-9, Georgia-16, Arizona-11, Missouri-10.
Total for Romney- 191
These states will have to be left in toss up until more current polling is released. All of these states were won by Obama in 08.
State Poll date sample data EV
Michigan 7/23/12 500LV Obama-48 Romney-42 16 Iowa 8/8/12 500LV Romney-46 Obama-44 6 Nevada 7/24/12 500LV Obama- 50 Romnay-45 6 Wisconsin 7/25/12 500LV Obama-49 Romnay-46 10 Colorado 8/6/12 500LV Obama-47 Romney-47 9 Penn. 7/18/12 500LV Obama-48 Romney-44 20 N. Car 8/1/12 500LV Romney-49 Obama-44 15 Virginia 8/7/12 500LV Obama-48 Romney-46 13 New Ham 6/20/12 500LV Obama-48 Romney-43 4 Florida 7/9/12 500LV Romney-46 Obama-45 29 Ohio 7/18/12 500LV Obama-47 Romney-45 18 Total of toss ups 146
IMHO and judging by most current polls and trends of polls, I can see R&R taking Iowa-6, Wisconsin-10, Colorado-9, North Carolina-15, Florida-29, & Ohio-18.
If that were to happen with these states that would be Romney-278 Obama-260 with 270 needed to win.
I am anxious to see more current polling that takes into account Paul Ryan as vp . With Paul Ryan taken into consideration I can also see Michigan-16, Nevada-6, Penn-20, & Virginia-13 going blue to red.
If that were to happen it would be Romney-337 Obama-201. The more Obama keeps talking the more I can see this happening.
What do other FReepers think?
Toss up states a little hard to make out. Sorry about that.
I think your analysis is on the mark.
No such thing as safe states for Obama, all are in play.
State Poll date sample data EV
Michigan 7/23/12 500LV Obama-48 Romney-42 16
Iowa 8/8/12 500LV Romney-46 Obama-44 6
Nevada 7/24/12 500LV Obama- 50 Romnay-45 6
Wisconsin 7/25/12 500LV Obama-49 Romnay-46 10
Colorado 8/6/12 500LV Obama-47 Romney-47 9
Penn. 7/18/12 500LV Obama-48 Romney-44 20
N. Car 8/1/12 500LV Romney-49 Obama-44 15
Virginia 8/7/12 500LV Obama-48 Romney-46 13
New Ham 6/20/12 500LV Obama-48 Romney-43 4
Florida 7/9/12 500LV Romney-46 Obama-45 29
Ohio 7/18/12 500LV Obama-47 Romney-45 18
Total of toss ups 146
Thank you. That’s what it looked like when I hit the post button.
I agree with your line of thinking. Skewing the polls by over-sampling Dems serves a number of purposes in this election cycle.
First, this delivers a headline for the drive-by media: “Obama leads Romney by 3 points” or whatever. By the time we break the poll down to expose the bias, the next over-sampled poll has already come out. The net effect is a false narrative of inevitability for Obama.
Less noticed is the effect of including all these crappy polls in the Real Clear Politics averages. When all of the polls used in the averages are biased on behalf of Dems, with the exception of Rassmussen and maybe Gallup, the average is worthless, but, of course, the media would want us to believe that the RCP is even more reliable because it takes more polls into account.
Garbage in garbage out.
Polls are intentionally designed to mislead/demoralize. In August of 1980 gallup showed Carter ahead 47 to 29. Reagan won 44 states.
My view is the MSM knows the tru numbers now and are oversampling dems by 10-15% to give Obama an edge now so that after the conventions in September, it will be a horse race to keep viewers interested. Then towards end of October, surprise Republican blowout going away. MSM is evil.
The election will be decided in the last 8 weeks by negative ads.
“The election will be decided in the last 8 weeks by negative ads.”
Bingo. Everything is under control. In the primary it was common for Romney to be trailing by double digits 10 days before the vote and he’d still pull it off. Right now he’s just baiting Obama into wasting his resources. He’ll only go for the kill in late October.
That’s why I tried to remove as much of the garbage as possible so we could get a more clear look at where this race stands.
And I also believe a lot of polls are false because most conservatives don’t answer the phone when pollsters call. I don’t and have seen it posted by many FReepers that they don’t either.
Are these people going to vote themselves out of a paycheck? Will they vote for the guy promising a pay raise or the guy promising to cut the budget?
Roughly 50% pay no Federal income tax.
Who cares about income tax or deficits?
Roughly 30% non-white population. http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/
Dem's win these groups regardless of economic status.
Holder will back pro Dem voter fraud with full weight of DOJ.
If its close, the criminals get 5% bonus votes? Think Al Franken.
As BHO so eloquently put it earlier this year, "in a few years, even Texas will be a swing state." (Thanks to Hispanic immigration). We are either at the 'tipping' point, or moving so rapidly towards the 'tipping' point that this will be the last Presidential race with hope for a conservative victory - unless America does a complete about face with regards to values. Barring a tidal wave of Christian revival, the US is already lost for all intensive purposes.
Pray for America.
I see NH, NM, and ME’s 2nd CD joining your list of states Romney will carry. I see Romney winning with over 52% of the vote. Romney will also have massive coattails. We will have 53 or 54 GOP Senators after November 6 and pick up 4 seats in the House. More state legislatures will be controlled by the GOP.
I can see all of those going to Romney. Some states that I have listed such as Connecticut for safe Obama could even go red.
I think LS had posted on a thread a few days ago that Obama was even having trouble in some deep blue states.
I’m really waiting for new polling data to come out. I think Paul Ryan has put fear into the Obama Camp and some confidence in the Romney camp.
Your analysis is right with my own. I don’t think it’s even close at this point. We still have the October Surprise to come, but so far so good.
I hope and pray that you are right about this. But I am nervous. Yes, I want to discount every poll but RAS as well. But these other polling organizations need to come at least close to the mark if they wish to stay in business. That means that as we get closer to the election. They will all need to begin to reflect more reality and somewhat less bias. Till I see some shift in the “Leftist polling,” I will remain apprehensive. Don’t underestimate how stupid and easily led people can be.
Yup. You will see it. It happens EVERY time.
If Pennsylvania goes Romney game over.
There is no scenario possible if PA goes red where other “contested” states all fall for Choom Choom Baroom.
If PA goes it’s not a domino effect, it’s a tidal wave. There’s a 1+ million D voter registration spread in this state. I don’t believe any other state, perhaps Michigan, has such a disparity in registration.
He won’t lose PA then turn around and win Iowa, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida.
Also if Missouri is not a toss up state? Forget it Choom Choom. Hello million dollar speeches for rubber chicken dinner career!
bfl
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