Posted on 07/06/2012 8:03:33 PM PDT by neverdem
Why the GOP nominee has a slight edge in the one poll that counts
Suppose that this November’s presidential election is so close that one candidate wins the popular vote and the other wins the Electoral College (and thus the election). Which candidate, Mitt Romney or Barack Obama, or neither, holds an edge in the Electoral College system for choosing U.S. presidents? Though his advantage is small, I believe it belongs to Romney.
My analysis begins with what I call a “political quotient.” I’ve constructed this device to measure a person’s political views quantitatively. Higher PQs correspond to more liberal views, with “100” indicating an outlook approximately as liberal as Nancy Pelosi’s or Barney Frank’s, while “0” indicates positions approximately as conservative as Jim DeMint’s or Michele Bachmann’s. According to my estimates, the PQ of the average American voter is 50.4.
In my book, Left Turn, and on my website, I estimate the PQ of the average voter in each of the 50 states and find that Iowa is the most moderate state in the nation: its average PQ, 50.7, is closest of all states to the national PQ of 50.4. In 2008, Iowa was also the median state in the Electoral College. That is, suppose you ordered all the representatives of the 2008 Electoral College according to the PQ of the representative’s state, starting with the lowest. In such an ordering, the first six members would be the representatives from Utah (the nation’s most conservative state), the next three members would be the representatives from Wyoming (the nation’s second-most conservative state), and so on. Such a list would contain 538 members, and the 270th member (the number necessary to win a majority of the Electoral College) would be a representative from Iowa.
In 2012, however, the median PQ state shifted to Colorado, a slightly more conservative state than Iowa, with a PQ of 48.2. The reason: conservative states (those with PQs lower than Iowa’s) gained six electoral votes in the last census. Thus, if the nation votes exactly 50–50, then Iowa would also be likely to vote almost exactly 50–50 (since its PQ is nearly the same as the nation’s PQ). But Colorado would tilt toward Romney, and with increased conservative electoral representation, so would the Electoral College.
One PQ point translates into about a half percentage point in terms of votes in a national election. For instance, Colorado is about 2.2 PQ points more conservative than the national average (50.4 minus 48.2). Accordingly, in a national election, we can expect Colorado to vote for the more conservative candidate by about 1.1 percentage points (one-half of 2.2) higher than the nation. If in the upcoming election the nation splits its vote 50–50 between Obama and Romney, then Colorado would vote 1.1 percent higher—or 51.1 to 48.9—for Romney.
Thus, according to my analysis, if the election produces a split decision, with a majority of the electorate picking one candidate and the Electoral College picking the other, Romney would win the Electoral College and become president.
Some recent polls support this forecast. Currently, the RealClearPolitics average poll, which surveys voters across the nation, gives Obama a 2.6 percent lead over Romney. Meanwhile, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, which surveys voters in twelve swing states, gives Romney an 8-point lead over Obama. The average PQ of the 12 swing states is 48.7—almost exactly the PQ of Colorado. The 12 states should therefore predict very well the outcome of the Electoral College. These polls, like my PQ analysis, suggest that the Electoral College tilts slightly toward Romney, compared with a pure popular-vote system. Expect soon for liberals to renew their complaints about the unfairness of the Electoral College.
Tim Groseclose is the Marvin Hoffenberg Professor of American Politics at UCLA and the author of Left Turn: How Liberal Media Bias Distorts the American Mind.
“The Chicago way lives; it worked on Roberts.”
The lawyers hired by 0bama, then, must also be “made guys” and enforcement. Do I think electors’ families and businesses could be threatened or exposed somehow? Yes, I do. Do I think their votes could be switched for no reason at all, apparently? Yes, I do.
That said, let me remind you that there are literally THOUSANDS of patriotic people in this country and elsewhere, with their own connectioncs and work, who are hell-bent on ensuring that 0bama is exposed and thrown out on the curb. Thousands.
‘Nuf said.
Face it folks, in 2008, people were weary of George Bush, whom the Left and media attacked relentlessly, and that alone made it an uphill battle for any Republican.
Obama was a magic, unknown, surprisingly articulate negro... the media painted him as a non-racial peace and love, hope and change bringer.
People got the idea that by voting for Obama, they were doing something historic.
Then in September the floor fell out from under the economy. In a couple of hours on Sept 29th somebody (Soros) cause the market to lose 778 points.
So Obama won. We could have seen that coming a mile away.
EVERYTHING is different in 2012. None of the dynamics of 2008 will repeat themselves. That's not to say the media and Obama campaign (same thing!) aren't trying to cook up a new dynamic, but those of 2008 will not be repeated. If anything, they are reversed.
Bachman is not my favorite person. There is just something about her that rubs me wrong. Lots of platitudes but ideas seem blah.
Hanging people for voter fraud would have fixed the problem faster than hanging chads.
I may have started out with a bias against Bachmann because her people were constantly hounding my late father for more donations (even though he did not live anywhere near Minnesota). I always wondered if she was in the race mainly to be able to raise larger sums of money in the future.
It is SUMMER! Who, besides us political diehards is even listening????
Thanks for the ping!
Won't happen. Romney just gave a major job to Kevin Madden, who in the past has been an open enemy of Sarah. So, you can assume that anyone like Sarah is going to be undercut, betrayed, denied, and all around harrassed.
See --- Romney Aide to Take On Bigger Role in Campaign (Palin-hater Madden to replace Etch-A-Sketch Eric)
Don’t know that SP would take a job under Romney after what his people did to under cut her before. OTOH would love to see her in Energy.
I agree - I just can't picture him trying for Palin and I can't think of anyone other female he would try to court for the veep spot. I liked some of her ideas, but I had serious reservations before she got knocked out of the race - started seeming a bit confused and lightweight.
Or for Pat Buchanan. The last time he ran he had a black woman as his running mate, and still lost.
Agreed :-) I just haven’t done the counting part there.
Agreed - I’ve been so focused on the popular that I have done the translations. My pre-count intuition is electoral landslide, but my pre-count willingness to say ‘mark my words’ is not yet.
Lightweight is a good word. Of any of the candidates running against Roman-y Newt would help him the most once in office. He knows the ends and outs of DC. Would have the Senate whipped into shape and knows how to orchestrate legislation to get it passed.
He like Cheney would not have higher ambitions and could serve without giving a SSSS about what people think of him.
Santorum is too much like the rest of the school of fish......jelly fish. The remaining only ran to get their name out there for future ambitions and the $$$$ they could raise IMHO.
The jury is still out on whether they “won” in the 1960 election. Most likely they bought the race in Cooke county. That was one of he closest in history. Kennedy was the more conservative candidate though, no doubt about that. Nixon was not cut from the same cloth as Eisenhower.
No, it's because his opponent is downright terrifying.
The Chicago Way of course. They'll lie cheat and bribe or threaten electors if they must. Whatever it takes.
Texas. And to some extent California. Sure not enough in Cal to win its electoral votes, but still lots of votes to boost his popular vote total, Same in New York and Florida.. although the vote is likely to be close in FL.
I really don’t have connections. I’m lucky to get a book blurb from some people.
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