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Did Justice Roberts Switch his Vote Late in the Game?
Intrade ^ | June 29, 2012 | various

Posted on 06/30/2012 2:22:06 AM PDT by Kevmo

NedStark wrote: http://www.volokh.com/2012/06/28/was-scalias-dissent-originally-a-majority-opinion/

"Scalia’s dissent, at least on first quick perusal, reads like it was originally written as a majority opinion (in particular, he consistently refers to Justice Ginsburg’s opinion as “The Dissent”). Back in May, there were rumors floating around relevant legal circles that a key vote was taking place, and that Roberts was feeling tremendous pressure from unidentified circles to vote to uphold the mandate. Did Roberts originally vote to invalidate the mandate on commerce clause grounds, and to invalidate the Medicaid expansion, and then decide later to accept the tax argument and essentially rewrite the Medicaid expansion (which, as I noted, citing Jonathan Cohn, was the sleeper issue in this case) to preserve it? If so, was he responding to the heat from President Obama and others, preemptively threatening to delegitimize the Court if it invalidated the ACA? The dissent, along with the surprising way that Roberts chose to uphold both the mandate and the Medicaid expansion, will inevitably feed the rumor mill."

I still believe that it is likely that there was insider trading that drove the price of this contract from $7-$9 in the past month. However, in the two days before the decision the price fell on substantial volume.

If the suspicions about Roberts changing his vote at the last minute are true then this only reinforces the intrade's value as a predictive market even though this time the bettors 'got it wrong.'

Edit to add here is an article that makes it clear that Roberts switched sides after the opinions had been written:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/06/29/did-rob...t-was-initially-set-to-strike/ This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at June 29, 2012 19:09:38 UTC


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: abortion; deathpanels; obamacare; scotus; zerocare
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This is being discussed on the Intrade forum, which does not require excerpt nor link-only.
1 posted on 06/30/2012 2:22:16 AM PDT by Kevmo
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To: All

various links

http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/180/493452.page

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/06/29/did-roberts-flip-clues-in-dissent-suggest-court-was-initially-set-to-strike/

‘I suspect ... the chief switched very late in the game.’

- David Rivkin, constitutional lawyer

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/06/29/did-roberts-flip-clues-in-dissent-suggest-court-was-initially-set-to-strike/#ixzz1zGcELfB8

http://www.salon.com/2012/06/28/did_john_roberts_switch_his_vote/singleton/

http://www.volokh.com/2012/06/28/was-scalias-dissent-originally-a-majority-opinion/


2 posted on 06/30/2012 2:25:20 AM PDT by Kevmo ( FRINAGOPWIASS: Free Republic Is Not A GOP Website. It's A Socon Site.)
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To: Kevmo

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/06/29/did-roberts-flip-clues-in-dissent-suggest-court-was-initially-set-to-strike/


3 posted on 06/30/2012 2:29:06 AM PDT by MestaMachine (obama kills)
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To: Kevmo
Just as I'm having a hard time not believing Breitbart and his coroner were assassinated,

I suspect some rat thugs ‘splained things to Roberts.

Robert's opinion is constitutional nonsense, pure garbage written under duress.

4 posted on 06/30/2012 2:33:17 AM PDT by Jacquerie (The American Revolution is dead.)
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To: Kevmo

But WHY would he switch?? The healthcare bill was pretty much a no-brainer given one’s contitutional beliefs. And his written opinion is just weird. Not to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but something underhanded happened.


5 posted on 06/30/2012 2:35:29 AM PDT by floridavoter2
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To: Kevmo
Who cares? It is over. Even if he sold his vote there is nothing that can be done. . . . . . . .
Except vote the RATS out. House, Senate WH.
I am very PO'd about it, but on closer examination it just may be what is needed to get rid of ZERO, Pelosi, Reed and many others. I know Harry doesn't come up in November but if we get control of the senate he will be out of power. . . .
6 posted on 06/30/2012 2:39:57 AM PDT by DeaconRed (My vote in Nov will be dictated by my extreme hatred for ZERO and what he is doing to our country.)
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To: floridavoter2

But WHY would he switch??
***A combination of things, most likely. Here’s just a start:

Roberts is a wuss, so if zer0bama threatened him, he’d fold.

Roberts values being a scotus justice more than he values the constitution.

zer0bama has goons that could have gotten to him.

The guy probably would fold if he was only threatened with having a reduced air conditioning budget.

Once justices go into the mindwarp zone of DC, they lose their constitutionalist perspective and their respect for the law.

Roberts dislikes confrontation with the executive branch.

SCOTUS and Roberts are, in fact, part of the government. And, history and the evidence shows that in the long term, SCOTUS will not stand in the way of the expansion of the power of the government as it is part of that system.
Roberts’ action was consistent with this premise.


7 posted on 06/30/2012 2:42:49 AM PDT by Kevmo ( FRINAGOPWIASS: Free Republic Is Not A GOP Website. It's A Socon Site.)
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To: Kevmo

8 posted on 06/30/2012 2:55:47 AM PDT by JoeProBono (A closed mouth gathers no feet - Mater tua caligas exercitus gerit ;-{)
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To: Kevmo
Roberts values being a scotus justice more than he values the constitution. zer0bama has goons that could have gotten to him. The guy probably would fold if he was only threatened with having a reduced air conditioning budget. Once justices go into the mindwarp zone of DC, they lose their constitutionalist perspective and their respect for the law. Roberts dislikes confrontation with the executive branch.
I think all of that is true but the fact remains that Roberts appears to have thrown Obama a curve ball. Yes ObamaCare survived and yes that's bad, but the fact cannot be dismissed that it survived as a TAX and that fact alone will make it easier to defeat Obama and all democrats in the fall.

Did Roberts throw that curve ball because he has a gimp RINO arm, or because he's a master craftsmen and used that pitch as a surgical strike to remove The One from office?

I don't know, and I don't care.

What I'm going to focus on, here in FR, in conversations with friends and co-workers, in posts to other forums and in my political volunteer work this summer and fall is one thing and one thing only:

The democrats are the party of TAXES and we need to get them out.

9 posted on 06/30/2012 3:01:41 AM PDT by samtheman (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jun/21/obamas-socialist-designs/)
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To: Kevmo
Did Roberts originally vote to invalidate the mandate on commerce clause grounds, and to invalidate the Medicaid expansion, and then decide later to accept the tax argument and essentially rewrite the Medicaid expansion (which, as I noted, citing Jonathan Cohn, was the sleeper issue in this case) to preserve it?

Mike Savage pointed out that Roberts lack of clear thinking may have been caused by the medication he is taking for epilepsy. Could this be true?

The opinions of the Supreme Court in connection with this case lack cohesion.

10 posted on 06/30/2012 3:11:24 AM PDT by olezip
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To: Kevmo

As soon as the GOP has a majority in Congress, they should impeach Roberts.

The ramifications of his actions in this case extend beyond the impact of this law.

He has set an unconstitutional precedent in rewriting the terminology of a Federal Statute under review in order to approve it. This violates the separation of powers and establishes a precedence for future SCOTUS decisions which is intolerable and unacceptable.

The entire gang of five who approved this law totally disregarded the Tenth Amendment. The Constitution does NOT give the Federal Government the power to establish a national; healthcare program. If they get away with this, there is no limit to the power of Congress and the Federal Courts upon the States or the People.

While they are at it, they should impeach Bader-Ginsberg for stating the SCOTUS should look to actions of other nations in rendering their decisions on U.S> Law - a clear violation of the Constitution.

Clearly the time for inaction, tolerance, and avoidance of hard ball tactics is over.


11 posted on 06/30/2012 3:19:42 AM PDT by ZULU (See: http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=D9vQt6IXXaM&hd)
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To: samtheman
"Did Roberts throw that curve ball because he has a gimp RINO arm, or because he's a master craftsmen and used that pitch as a surgical strike to remove The One from office?
I don't know, and I don't care.

Me either. It helped us a lot. Remember Roberts was called out during a state of the union message from Zero. Did he just give his payback? Only November will tell. . . .

12 posted on 06/30/2012 3:24:39 AM PDT by DeaconRed (My vote in Nov will be dictated by my extreme hatred for ZERO and what he is doing to our country.)
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To: Kevmo

So Roberts is a coward as well as a traitor. The bigger issue is that the republic was murdered and only Governor Jindall has had the guts to say “FU” to the court and DeathCare.


13 posted on 06/30/2012 4:11:07 AM PDT by NTHockey (Rules of engagement #1: Take no prisoners)
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To: Kevmo

He probably wants a shoutout at the next State of the Union
speech,or they showed him the pictures of his “youth.”


14 posted on 06/30/2012 4:48:05 AM PDT by Dr. Ursus
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To: samtheman
If roberts made a decision purely for political reasons... one that was unconstitutional and went against his oath of office... he should be impeached and if found guilty... hung for treason. This holds true for every black robed jurist in America. ZERO tolerance!

LLS

15 posted on 06/30/2012 4:50:08 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (Don't Tread On Me)
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To: Kevmo
I think it was a flip caused by blackmail, “The Chicago Way.”

Most likely some old videotapes from the 1990s, when Roberts was doing pro-bono work for homosexual groups.

Smoke, fire, blackmail 20 years later.

The Chicago Way. I'll bet Axlerod wired it together, the same way he caused Obama’s previous election opponents to drop out with the timely release of sealed divorce records.

The Chicago Way.

16 posted on 06/30/2012 5:03:09 AM PDT by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: LibLieSlayer
I agree with you in principle, but as a matter of practical policy it's pretty unlikely.

I believe we should keep our eye on the ball. Keep our eye on Obama.

17 posted on 06/30/2012 5:06:25 AM PDT by samtheman (The ObamaCareTax is the Biggest Tax in the History of the World)
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To: Kevmo

Did Justice Roberts Switch his Vote Late in the Game?

WHAT DOES THIS MATTER? How about seeing it for what it is. Roberts voted to allow the Congress to pass anything related to forcing us to purchase a product...PERIOD. His solution is every 2-4 years this can be voted in then out, out then in. The court did not strike down abuses of the Commerace Clause, it remains another tool by the politicans to screw us. A Pox on Roberts for not having the balls to make a correct decision. Prick!


18 posted on 06/30/2012 5:10:49 AM PDT by JohnD9207 (Mitt better grow a pair or this thing will be over soon.)
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To: DeaconRed

I am like you.

Who cares what his reason was. He sold us out.

It’s done and there is nothing we can do about until November , and even then we are stuck with a Supreme Court with only 4 members who believe in America.


19 posted on 06/30/2012 5:15:51 AM PDT by Venturer
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To: samtheman
I will watch every enemy of Freedom and Liberty. They surround us and roberts is one of them. An “r” or the claim of Conservatism no longer is a cover that works. Trust no one until they earn it.

LLS

20 posted on 06/30/2012 5:26:57 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (Don't Tread On Me)
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