Reaal Clear Politics on their Electoral Map just moved Wisconsin froms Leans Obama to Toss-Up. This is based on a Daily Kos poll (!) which shows Obama as +1 in Wisc.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Click on a state to see the most recent polls.
Obama will be lucky if he carries eight to ten states. Romney will win in a landslide. Note; the winds of change are blowing. Both Nebraska & Indiana will send Tea Party Republicans to the U.S. Senate. Pubbies should be pressing every Democrat across the country to make verbally public their stand on gay marriages. Especially in the state of Ohio, where liberal Democrat Sherrod can beaten about the head and shoulders on the gay marriage issue. Pubbies, for goodness sake, get with the program. Destroy both Obama and the entire Democrat Party politically in November, 2012. Repeat of 2010 mid-term romp will be repeated, even stronger, this year.
Oh he’s going to hold some states in 12, the population distribution makes it next to impossible to get an electorial victory like Reagan anymore. Even if you win 55-60% of the popular vote you won’t wind up with the lopsided electorial college votes (at least in states) like you used to.
However, I feel that right now, NC, IN and OH are going red, I also believe WI is likely to be red. FL I suspect will go red, but its too early to say, and VA I would like to think to will as well, but I haven’t seen any polling for these states yet. I think PA is in play as well and NM and NV. IA perhaps. I’d want to see some polling out of the new england states, but I doubt you are going to see muc if any movement at least EC vote there.
However overall popular vote I think is going to easily be in the 55-45 range for Romney. Had we had a strong conservative candidate with the ability to articulate the view and take the fight to Obama, I’d say we would win by 60-40 or 65-35, but since we don’t I think we have a safe relatively boring campaign with Romney just trying not to make any mistakes and taking the guaranteed 55-45 win.
All of those States that usually vote GOP and went for Obama, are going to return to the GOP.