The Growing Turkish Threat

Iran does not like Turkey supporting Syrian rebels, but does little beyond complain about Turkey and Iran disagreeing about what is happening in Syria. Iran is intent on maintaining good relations with the Turks, who have been a formidable (and usually victorious) foe for centuries. This strategy is based on fear, reflected in a recent Turkish opinion poll that showed 54 percent of Turks approved Turkey developing nuclear weapons if Iran does. To make matters worse Turkey has joined with the Sunni Arabs to rebuild the old (pre-1918 when the Ottoman Turk empire collapsed) coalition opposing Shia Iran. Back in Ottoman times, Turkey was the undisputed leader, but now must share that with Saudi Arabia. Much to Iran's discomfort, the Turks are making this unnatural marriage (the Turks and Arabs never really got along) work.

...The Iranian advisors speak from experience, and it is Iranian cash that keeps the Syrian government running in the face of economic sanctions. Iran loses a lot if the pro-democracy rebellion in Syria succeeds... Hezbollah, armed with over 40,000 Iranian rockets, is the only weapon Iran has to use against Israel if Israel tries to bomb Iranian nuclear weapons facilities. While Hezbollah would lose another war with Israel (like they did in 2006 when they accidentally started one); Hezbollah would also lose most of its rockets and other Iranian weapons. Without Syria, replacing all those rockets would take a long time, and might be impossible. For this reason, Hezbollah is supplying men (as trainers, technicians and, in a few cases, fighters) and weapons to Syria. Throughout all this, Syrian and Hezbollah personnel in Syria are under orders to keep their heads down. The Lebanese and Iranians wear Syrian uniforms as needed, unobtrusive civilian clothes otherwise.

OPEC Has Already Turned to the Euro
GoldMoney Alert
February 18, 2004
...The source for the euro exchange rate is the Federal Reserve, and I have calculated the euro's average exchange rate to the dollar for each year based on daily data.

US Imports of Crude oil
(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Year	Quantity (thousands of barrels)	Value (thousands of US dollars)	Unit price (US dollars)	Average daily US$ per € exchange rate	Unit price (euros)
2001	3,471,066	74,292,894	21.40	0.8952	23.91
2002	3,418,021	77,283,329	22.61	0.9454	23.92
2003	3,673,596	99,094,675	26.97	1.1321	23.82

We can see from column (4) in the above table that in 2001, each barrel of imported crude oil cost $21.40 on average for that year. But by 2003 the average price of a barrel of crude oil had risen 26.0% to $26.97 per barrel. However, the important point is shown in column (6). Note that the price of crude oil in terms of euros is essentially unchanged throughout this 3-year period.

As the dollar has fallen, the dollar price of crude oil has risen. But the euro price of crude oil remains essentially unchanged throughout this 3-year period. It does not seem logical that this result is pure coincidence. It is more likely the result of purposeful design, namely, that OPEC is mindful of the dollar's decline and increases the dollar price of its crude oil by an amount that offsets the loss in purchasing power OPEC's members would otherwise incur. In short, OPEC is protecting its purchasing power as the dollar declines.

Turkey have eyes toward Central Asia and link up with their past and maybe start a new “Ottoman Empire”. The Iranians would like Central Asia for expanding their brand of Islam.The Iranians and Central Asian peoples share a great deal of traditions - like the Navruz.

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