Posted on 03/21/2012 6:48:02 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
While it’s clear that regional variations have played a role thus far in the Republican primaries — with Mitt Romney doing well in the Northeast but not in the South, for example — breaking down the contests along other lines might help shed some additional light on the race. It’s perhaps interesting to compare how Romney has done in each of five groupings of contests: the five states that have the largest percentage of members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Nevada, and Arizona); all other swing states (Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Minnesota, Michigan, and New Mexico); all other GOP-leaning states; all other Democratic-leaning states; and non-states.
To date, here’s the average percentage of the popular vote than Romney has won in each of those five categories:
Non-states: 88 percent (based on tallies from Puerto Rico and the Northern Mariana Islands)
Top-5 LDS states: 51 percent
Democratic-leaning non-swing states: 47 percent
Swing states: 38 percent (including Virginia, where Ron Paul and Romney ran head-to-head)
Republican-leaning non-swing states: 27 percent
Romney is clearly having a great deal of success in blue states like Illinois (where he got the same 47 percent of the vote he’s averaged in blue states to date), in frontier states that are heavily Mormon, and in non-state island contests. He’s doing alright in swing states He’s not doing very well in red states. In red states, Rick Santorum is averaging 33 percent of the vote, and Santorum and Newt Gingrich have combined to average 59 percent of the vote — more than double Romney’s average tally of 27 percent.
Romney’s win-loss record tells a similar tale. He’s 5-0 in non-states, 4-0 in heavily Mormon states, 6-0 in blue states, 5-3 in swing states, and 1-8 in red states.
In all, Romney has won 40 percent of the popular vote and 55 percent of the delegates awarded in contests to date. To secure the 1,144 delegates required to win the nomination, he needs to win 46 percent of the delegates in the 24 contests still to come. So, how does the slate of states look for him going forward?
From here on out, a much higher percentage of the available delegates will come from Democratic-leaning states than was true during the first half of the GOP race. That certainly favors Romney. However, a higher percentage of the delegates will also come from Republican-leaning states, which doesn’t favor him. (Fewer delegates from here on out will come from swing states.) Moreover, there are no more non-state islands still to come and only one more state that’s among the top-5 in highest share of LDS population (Utah).
If we give Romney the same percentage of the vote in each upcoming contest that he’s averaged in that category of contest to date (for example, if we give him the same 47 percent of the vote in Maryland that he’s averaged in Democratic-leaning states to date), his average share of the popular vote in upcoming contests would be 37 percent — a bit below the tally he’s won to date.
To be sure, this projection is not intended to provide a dead-on forecast of future events. Still, all other things being equal, Romney’s path to acquiring delegates likely won’t get much easier, and could well get a bit harder, from this point forward. If he can’t improve upon his 11 percent winning percentage in red states, this race will likely go until June — and perhaps all the way until the GOP convention in August.
I don’t really trust Illinois in choosing our next President. The present one was bad enough.
” Why It’s Not Surprising Romney Won Illinois “
My mother wrote me today about how, when she went to vote in the Illinois Primary (an overwhelmingly Conservative community), there were many people in line with her that were registered Democrats, who were proud to announce that they were getting Republican ballots so they could get Romney nominated...
‘nuff said??
IL by itself won’t choose, but I take your point.
It will go overwhelmingly for Obama.
A very unrepresentative state of the rest of America.
“there were many people in line with her that were registered Democrats, who were proud to announce that they were getting Republican ballots so they could get Romney nominated...”
And here I thought it was about the 3 mil plus that romney spent. You mean he blew it for nothing? LOL
That photo embodies the death of the GOP as a socially conservative, American supremacy party. It is as if Chamberlain and Vidkun Quisling were sitting down together and basking in their own brilliance and integrity.
I don’t doubt it.
However, all indications are Romney would’ve won anyway, albeit by a smaller margin without Dem votes.
Santorum struggled somewhat in his campaign there, whereas Romney seemed to have his slick machine in gear.
That said, Mitt still couldn’t crack 50%.
i got a call from teh RNC last night askign me for money. i told them that as long as romney was getting their support, they’d not get a dime from me. they then tried to get on about getting rid of obama. i asked them what the diff was between romney and obama and they came unglued. then I told them that if they wanted to win elections, they needed conservative candidates, and romney isn’t.
there’s gonna be a new party in the near future.
The democrats know that Newt can clean the floor with the Muslim..Newt will be my choice when we get our chance here in Texas..Rick is a great guy and I would vote for him but I really think Newt could win and bring this country back to the real America..
There’s an even worse photo.
The one of GHWB and “Jebbie” sitting with O in the Oval Office, apparently to make the point that they were fine with it, win or lose in the election between Republicans and Democrats.
Agreed. That photo illustrates the beginning, middle and end of American surrender to the “New World Order”, which is a whole lot like the “Old World ORder” the Founding Father fought a war to break away from.
“there’s gonna be a new party in the near future.”
There most certainly is.
Voting for Romney is nearly like voting for Obama.
Both are hanging their hats on healthcare.
It is never surprising when you win by outspending your opponent 21:1.
How can I get you to see reality? You like newt best. But only RIGHT NOW do we have a prayer to defeat Romney, and it’s most important in states like yours, Texas. A vote for newt helps mitt add to his delegate pile.
Even if you are sure newt is better, at least Santorum is a true conservative. There is no time to pick newt; he’s not going to be nominee or president. There is only the tiniest chance for Santorum.
We do not want mitt. You and fellow newt supporters have the chance to stop Mitt. Think of the supreme court. It’s crazy that freepers don’t see that there is no sense in voting newt. Mitt will be very close if he doesn’t have the delegate numbers at the convention, and he will have a mandate.
Please, Gingrich supporters. Let’s not have Romney as our nominee. You have the power to prevent it if you vote Santorum to defeat Romney. Please think about your power, that later you will regret. I respect your choice for president but each of you being a purist is BEING USED AGAINST YOU for romney’s and then obama’s gain. Please see this.
Santorum was not on the ballot in 4 congressional districts in Illinois, and failed to certify full slates in a few other districts.
Imagine the honest and true and DIFFERENT results Virginia would have had if they had let every Republican vote.
I know they technically "let" them vote, but only for approved and selected candidates like in the old Soviet Union and Cuba today.
I hope two things: 1) Their scheme fails in the end and 2) the brilliant pols who jimmied the rules and the way the rules were applied pay the political price in spades!
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Naturally the usual suspects will show up to call Newt stupid, lazy or lacking in organization etc., but everyone who is honest and was paying attention knows that the rules were jimmied and by whom!
I won't address the usual suspects when they do show up, but I will try to be charitable and assume they weren't paying attention and don't know what was done or the actual fraud involved. They have a point with some of the other candidates who didn't have the money or organization to compete in Virginia at that time.
I thank Governor Perry for helping to make all that very clear--to those who are honest and were paying attention.
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