Romney and Santorum would split vote if Gingrich exited race [What if Rick exited and Newt stayed?]

Pocono Record - PA ^ | March 17, 2012

[C. Edmund Wright]

Patronizing b-st-rd. Rickie is best suited for Mr. Roger’s replacement, how’z at?

[trebb]

I believe you’re right. It’s been noticable that in the heavy liberal bastions, Mitt comes in first and Rick second, with Newt way back with Paul. I contend that the more conservative you lean, the more likely you are to back Newt. If he drops out, I can picture a lot of his backers going to Romney just to ensure Obama is easily elected - better to make it absolutely clear that we need to do something big to take the Nation back and most don’t believe Rick will do the job where it will do the most good - might as well let Mitt fall to Obama and hunker down while the light bulbs turn on.

[StAnDeliver]

What other reasons might Newt have for staying in? What emerges from that scenario, other than the obvious keynote slot at the convention?

• Newt's continuing primary presence likely keeps Santorum off the top of the ticket, but conversely strengthens Santorum's hand for the VP via proportional races.

• Remember Mittens' de facto VP nom Rubio scolding Newt for the immigration ad, which may have hurt Newt in Florida? No love lost there. Newt enjoys turning the tables, er, giving as good as he gets, umm ... revenge.

• Meanwhile, consider the only Mittens' Cabinet post Newt would ever consider -- Secretary of State. Newt would name Bolton, but why settle for Bolton, when you could have the Bolton's Bolton -- Newt. Gringrich tranforming the State Department already has libtards howling, which is practically confirmation it's a good idea.

• Now add in Adelson meeting with Romney in early Feb., and the script begins to write itself. Which would be true if it hadn't already been written ...

  "Sheldon Adelson, the casino magnate who's been the main benefactor of the super PAC supporting Newt Gingrich, met with Mitt Romney in Nevada last week, shortly after he met with the former House Speaker, sources close to both candidates told POLITICO...And the Romney meeting came a day before a New York Times story, quoting sources familiar with Adelson's thinking, making clear that even if he gives more money to the super PAC Winning Our Future, it isn't intended as a slight against the frontrunner - who would be the beneficiary of even greater donations to the GOP side in the fall as the nominee."

[Mariner]

"BS "

Gallup released a poll yesterday that showed a close 50-50 split of Gingrich votes between the other two candidates.

That would put Romney in MAJORITY win in every states from here on out.

[Red Steel]

Thats true in proportional delegate states but in winner take all states it hands the race to Romney and he'll run away with it.

Most of the 8 winner-take-all states are not strictly winner-take-all unless a candidate wins a majority of the vote, and other modifications:

-New York, win the majority or it is proportional:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/NY-R

-Connecticut, same as New York

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/CT-R

-Utah is winner-take-all and you don't need the majority. But Santo can forget this state even without Newt.

-Indiana, "Delegate Selection: Combined Selection [Winner-Take-All Primary for District Delegates with Caucus/Convention]"

-California is winner-take-all by Congressional district.

And

- Wisconsin, Winner-Take-All "by district and statewide"

[Theodore R.]

Somehow, I just can’t see willfill little men like Boehner and McC pushing Saint Rick around.

[Theodore R.]

He no longer lives in GA, couldn’t meet the residency requirement for governor, and the next race is not until 2014, when he would be, what, 72.

[Theodore R.]

Gingrich isn’t even running to win at this point. He’s running to divide

Mewton may have campaign funds that he must spend or lose them. He's up in IL trying to help Romney there too, not that Romney needs too much assistance in that liberal Land of Lincoln.

[txrangerette]

I can WELL understand how people get there.

People start with believing Newt Gingrich is BY FAR the best candidate and potential POTUS.

The alternatives don’t come close to Newt, in their conclusion, after thinking and researching and remembering and reasoning and praying...whatever process they use.

I can certainly understand the conclusion.

They are then asked, if not Newt Gingrich, who would you pick, Romney or Santorum?

You don’t move among them, but I’m here to say the reality is, there are people who have Santorum at the bottom of their list...way at the bottom. And they can tell you WHY.

Apparently they plan to vote and if FORCED, note, IF forced to choose, they think Romney is the least bad between the two.

I think Romney and Santorum are both terrible alternatives to Newt.

I’m not discussing their relative merits if this is only between the two of them. I would have to give Santorum the edge against Romney, but I’m here to say they are both disasters. So I will not discuss that even though I could if I chose to.

I’m staying on point that there are obviously people who think the WORST choice is Santorum, who strongly support Newt.

There are others who think Santorum is less bad than Romney, who strongly support Newt.

There is a SPLIT.

That is the entire point. Whatever you come up with, Mountain Mary, you don’t end up getting around that.

I don’t expect ever to influence you. You are an activist and you will double down and triple down on whomever you back at whatever time you back them.

So I write for those who lurk and read.

[broken_arrow1]

A lot of my very conservative Republican friends would go for Mitt instead of Rick because they think that Mitt stands a better chance of beating Obama.

There, fixed it...

[broken_arrow1]

Former Democrats have moved into the Republican party and shifted it to the left. These are the so-called “moderate” Republicans, who support Mitt Romney. You should take your (Democrat) party back from the Socialists and nominate Mitt to challenge Obama as a Democrat.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Somehow, I just can’t see willfill little men like Boehner and McC pushing Saint Rick around.

Really? What is this based on? Inquiring minds want to know. :^D

[JediJones]

There are not just 8 winner-take-all states. The vote-splitting between Rick and Newt wouldn’t be such a big issue if it were that few. 800 out of 1200 remaining delegates roughly come from winner-take-all territory. Please note the first 3, you directly elect the delegates, not the candidate, but the delegates win with a mere plurality so it’s the same as winner-take-all.

Illinois (direct delegate election by district)
Pennsylvania (direct delegate election by district)
West Virginia (direct delegate election by district)
California (WTA by district or a mix?)
New York (WTA by district or a mix?)
Texas (WTA by district or a mix?)
Connecticut (WTA by district or a mix?)
Maryland (WTA by district or a mix?)
Wisconsin (WTA by district or a mix?)
New Jersey (WTA by district or a mix?)
Puerto Rico (pure WTA statewide)
Washington D.C. (pure WTA statewide)
Delaware (pure WTA statewide)
Utah (pure WTA statewide)

[georgiagirl_pam]

You are fooling yourself if you believe that all Gingrich supporters are like the ones that you find on FR.
Same for Santorum supporters. As for Mitt.....

Hate to tell you guys this but the views of the Republican electorate are not fully represented by the people that you interact with here on Free Republic. Some of them are pragmatists, not purists.

[itsahoot]

[Brown Deer]

How do Newt folks think Santorum voters will go? What it they went to Mitt?

Well it certainly looks like Newt's votes will go to Mitt.



So you had better pray that Newt Gingrich stays in this race!

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

More detail from the same poll......(more realistic)

[Brown Deer]

......(more realistic)

How is that more realistic?

[dforest]

Nah, Romney has this in the bag. The only way we could have ever known how accurate this poll is would be if Newt left. And he won’t until Santorum is toast like he is.

The real problem for conservatives this time is that we didn’t field a good candidate that appeals to everyone. Newt isn’t acceptable to one side and Rick isn’t to the other half.

I think that the divide is permanent on both sides. Santorum voters would probably go half to Romney too.

Soooooo, that about tells the tale.

Romney will get this nomination. Brokered convention is a pipe dream.

[katiedidit1]

Rick Santorum supported a MANDATE on ethanol! Newt only supported exploration..facts just kill vesty supporters