Posted on 03/14/2012 7:12:07 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Sometimes it’s tough to suss out bias in polling, I grant you. This is not one of those times. Reuters leads with a story about Barack Obama’s approval rating jumping back up to 50%:
For the first time since early July, more Americans approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing than disapprove, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll that shows his approval rating now at 50 percent.
The poll, taken March 8-11 on the heels of reports that 227,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in February, indicates that Obama’s rating has risen by 2 percentage points during the past month. The percentage of Americans who disapprove of the Democratic president was 48 percent, down from 49 percent in February.
At this point, you’d normally see me analyze the sample type, size, and composition for a critical analysis of whether this particular poll is reliably predictive. Oddly, Reuters doesn’t provide a link for its readers to peruse the data set — but that’s no problem, as it turns out, because Reuters provides its own credibility-killing data at the end of its report:
The Reuters/Ipsos telephone poll of 1,084 adults included 554 respondents who identified themselves as Democrats, 421 as Republicans, and 109 as independents. The total respondents included 937 registered voters.
Er, that would mean that 51.1% of the respondents to the poll were Democrats, and 38.8% were Republicans. Now, I grant you that Republicans have been slightly overrepresented in this sample, as the 2010 exit polls showed 35% of voters were Republicans. However, Democrats also only comprised 35% of the vote that year, not 51.1%, and only 39% the year Obama won election.
So the big news for Obama is that in a poll that consists of 51.1% Democrats, he gets a 50% approval rating? Yeah, that’s a boost, all right. And Reuters needs to go back to polling school.
I commented on this poll this morning at the Reuters site, pointing out the (historically - even for lib media) bogus sample.
They banned my account.
More Fun With Numbers from the commie ‘RATS.
Rooters poll
Of course this ruse will be kept up, you know, the recovery, the >50% approval ratings, etc. etc. even if they have to go to 60%, 75% Dems in the sample.
This summer or late summer when the election cycle pressure heats up, Obama will miraculously come up with a bi-partisan temporary fix, the key econ numbers will ‘improve’ as a result.
And a majortiy of American electorate can continue to live their happy lives and vote for Obama. Like he is the savior or something. And then, IT WILL BE TOO LATE.
Throw that by me again?
50% approve...50% disaapprove.
Yes, I can see that 50% is definately more than 50%.
wow, 10% change in a day.
Yes, these polls are all over the place.
Just look at this one that was posted just yesterday here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2858262/posts
CBS/NYT Poll: Obama’s approval rating sinks to new low at 41%
All the news that’s fit to manufacture.
Don't let the numbers go lower than that, or they will pull out ALL the stops.
Don't let the numbers go lower than that, or they will pull out ALL the stops.
All the news that’s fit to manufacture.
They could save some time and money by simply saying they conducted a poll, but instead just making the whole thing up. Obama might then score even higher.
Means justify ends. Viva la Revolution!
Oh my gosh! I have to contact the management of Reuters with this wonderful cost-savings measure!!! I will get a consultant gig for sure, now!!!
The Reuters/Ipsos telephone poll of 1,084 adults included 554 respondents who identified themselves as Democrats, 421 as Republicans, and 109 as independents. The total respondents included 937 registered voters.
Sounds like Rooters had a 50% approval figure in search of a poll.
So, to recap, the “respondents” were:
1. “Registered,” not “Likely” voters,
2. 51.1% Democrats,
3. 38.8% Republicans, and
4. 10.1% Indies
Um.. not even remotely close to the political alignment of registered voters in this country. But anyway...
...The best they could do was 50/48?
This is actually pretty funny. If you took Maryland voters as your entire sample his approval would be 65% or 75%.
It is possible that some independents could see this as Obama doing good. But it could also give liberals over confidence as many liberals think that most people are really liberals at heart like them.
10% of 52% of left wingers hate themselves.....details at 11...
DManA’s Law: All “free” pols are intended to forward the agenda of the organization paying for them.
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