Posted on 01/15/2012 5:42:06 AM PST by Bobalu
Russia has given Iran its bear hug and warns Israel and the West that an attack on Tehran would be considered an attack on Moscow. The threat heightens the prospect of World War III in the event of a military strike on Iran.
“Iran is our neighbor,” Russia's outgoing ambassador to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, told reporters in Brussels. “And if Iran is involved in any military action, it’s a direct threat to our security.”
(Excerpt) Read more at israelnationalnews.com ...
Gog and Magog
-——Looks like Gog has designs on the ME after all——
It is merely pretentious bluster for the historic record. The Russians presently lack the ability to do much more that pretend to be important.
An election is coming and rousing the rabble against an imagined foreign enemy is always good for votes
Quotes don’t justify headline.
Pragmatism happens.
MAD works quite well with rational actors. Israel is a rational actor by any definition. Iran? That remains to be seen. While I wouldn’t classify Ahmedenijad as the most “rational” human being on earth, he doesn’t have command of Iran’s (potential) nuclear forces. Ayatollah Ali Khameni has that dubious honor. So then the question becomes, how rational of an actor is Khameni?
If the Russians are serious, and let’s say they sign an agreement with Iran to the effect of a defense treaty, that would very likely preclude Israel from any pre-emptive attack, in which case they’ll continue with what they’re doing now, strategic assassinations of key nuclear program personnel.
Then what would the Iranians do? Or more to the point, what would Ayatollah Khameni do? Would he go full out with an attempted nuclear attack, or would he realize he’s now sitting pretty, and largely immune to any negative consequences of his nations nuclear program, which at that point could ostensibly continue (well, provided they don’t continue losing their nuclear scientists). It’s no secret Khameni has in the past put the smackdown on Ahmedenijad, and there are reports of a good deal of dissatisfaction with Ahmedenijad on Khameni’s part.
So, this is the key question: Is Khameni a rational enough actor to accept the basic operating principle of MAD? The answer to that question is the whole enchilada. Would he authorize a nuclear attack on Israel, knowing full-well that Israel easily has a considerable retaliatory capability?
Of course, the only downside I’ve always seen with MAD is the potential for a nuke as a terrorist weapon. If the terrorist are smart, they won’t claim responsibility, which leaves the aggrieved party’s options limited.
The Israelis would do well to say that if any nuclear attack is visited upon them, they would automatically hold Iran fully responsible, regardless of who does (or doesn’t) take responsibility for such an attack, and will respond accordingly (i.e., nuclear retaliation).
A pre-emptive attack against Iran should’ve been done several years ago....around 2007, I’d say. For reasons best known to themselves, the Israelis didn’t do so. To be honest, I don’t think they will. I think they’ll continue on their current covert operations, which they likely perceive as being preferable to an all-out shooting war.
Knowing Obama as I do , I am sure he will use this as a reason to close down more of our Nuke sites and save money by cutting the amount of men we have in the military.
Now is the time we should be building our military, not cutting them.
The Russians have their own Muslim problem, if they were smart they would join the world in destroying the biggest problem in the Middle East not supporting them.
The Russians said that about Serbia and Iraq, too.
I think it’s just Russian political grandstanding.
I doubt that they will waste Russian blood and treasure on the Iranian mullahs. Iran financed the Chechens who have killed thousands of Russians, blowing up subways and apartment buildings in Moscow, suicide bombings of aircraft and train stations, and the elementary school massacre on Sept 1, 2004.
Putin is just playing both ends against the middle, as he always has. Mostly it’s a win-win for Russia, but on occasion they fall hard because of it. Like the elementary school massacre.
Exactly the words I was going to post!
I wonder - does the Russian Church share in this position?
Honest question: if and when Iran gets the nuke, where will they bomb Israel? Jerusalem is also a muslim holy site. They will want to avoid that. The size of Israel seems to limit the number of plausible targets unless Iran sees damage to Israel’s neighbors as acceptable.
OK.
Here’s answer to question, though. US blows up Russia and Russia blows up US.
Where’s that reset button again?
That message was clear in 1973. I can understand why they wouldn’t remember it today.
I don’t think that’ll come to pass.
When all is said and done, Russia and the USA will stand by and let the Iranians and Israelis blow each other to kingdom come, and issue sternly worded memorandums regarding restraint. There’s an old saying which applies to the realpolitik concept; No one let’s themselves get killed for an ally.
But the time it’s all settled, Tehran, Tel Aviv, Qom and Jerusalem will all bear a remarkable resemblance to Hiroshima and Nagasaki (that depends on how many nukes the Iranians can not only manufacture/assemble, but actually deliver....nukes are pretty useless if you don’t have an adequate delivery system). Though of course, in a nuclear exchange between the two, I can safely say Iran will come out the worse.
Iran is an important partner for Russia. For example, a huge order for their new superjet aircraft. Iran, Venezuela and others are strategic potential customers for a resurgent russian industry. Russia has to protect its market.
Read: Nuclear War Survival Skills
It's free.
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