Posted on 12/15/2011 8:32:14 PM PST by neverdem
There have been a lot of good candidates for the "gerrymander of the decade" award this cycle. North Carolina, Illinois and Texas have all dreamed up district lines that have gone...
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Republicans in Pennsylvania, however, took a state that is two or three points more Democratic than the country as a whole, and created 12 districts (out of 18) that are more Republican than the country as a whole. They did so by creating what can only be called a group of Rorschach-inkblot districts in southeastern Pennsylvania.
The net result is a map that shores up their vulnerable incumbents, and that may well result in a 14-4 Republican edge by the end of the decade.
To see how this works, take a look at the following two charts. The first one shows the 2008 Obama percentage in each district under the old lines and the new lines, as well as the change (negative is toward McCain, positive is toward Obama).
A few quick notes: The new 4th district is just a renumbered version of the old 19th district, while Democrats Mark Critz and Jason Altmire were placed together in the new 12th district. Also, the new district percentages were compiled using Dave’s Redistricting Application; it doesn’t allow for precinct-splitting, so some of these numbers may be off by a 10th of a point or so.
The next chart is really a summary chart of the first. It shows the number of districts under both the old and new lines, sorted by Obama’s two-party vote share. Remember, a district that gave Obama 54 percent or more of the two-party vote leans toward Democrats; 53 percent or less leans Republican. I’ve also noted where Republican incumbents are in Democratic-leaning districts and vice-versa:
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(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
politics!
The new 4th/old 19th has been a GOP bastion since the early 1950’s with the exception of the Goldwater backlash ‘64-’66.
Glad to see that it now has a VERY low district number.
Congratulations & Merry Christmas! Santa came early.
You know, if the Dems never passed 0-care this probably wouldn't have happened, as the hard-core among the GOP would not have acquired the clout in the state legislature they now hold.
It’s a beautiful thing, so thanks for the ping! :o)
It’s gonna be great fun to watch Altmire and Critz battle it out to be the dem nominee in the 12th. I don’t know which of those two jerks to root for! LOL!
Hopefully Col. Bill Russell will take another shot at running as the Republican.
Finally, finally the Republicans are taking it to the Dimocraps with their own game. There’s hope yet!
I saw a pix of the new map on another site and it's no more slanted than some I've seen that use the center line of Inter-state 95 as a district connecter.
There are a few in the carolinas that are really twisted.
Next they need tackle voter fraud so those rat enclaves won’t give Obama the state.
Looks like the R’s are sacrificing the 13th District as a lost cause - ugh. I had hoped for some relief. No such luck.
As screwed-up as the Philly and Montco Republican parties are, do you blame them?
PA is fouled up by the Phily area. That's where most of the rats are. They'll win probably 3 seats in the Philly area, the Pittsburgh seat and 1 in the rest of the state (Holden) That sounds about right.
The net result is a map that shores up their vulnerable incumbents, and that may well result in a 14-4 Republican edge by the end of the decade.
The 14th seat being Holden's new district if he retires this decade? I doubt it. But it should be 13-5.
As for the question posited in the article title, No, it's Illinois. Next question.
I don’t really understand this arguement. If a state is 2-3 points more democratic than the country, how does that apply to districts? and why should it?
If most of the democratic edge is in Philadelphia and Pittsburg why should that be extrapolated to the whole state.
I sympathize but there was no way to make that seat more Republican without jeopardizing several others.
And frankly that area is voting strongly rat now, making it a little more Republican wouldn’t lead to the rat losing. Her narrow initial wins seem like a long time ago.
It doesn’t and shouldn’t. Most of PA is Republican, the huge rat edge in Philly is the only reason the state as whole leans a little democrat.
Take Chicago out of Illinois and you have a Republican state. Our Governor got “reelected” by “winning” Cook County by 36 points despite winning only 3 other counties in the whole state. 4 counties out of 102.
Take D-town out of Michigan, ect ect.
Thus most districts in these states should be Republican held despite democrat statewide voting results thanks to heavily democrat cities.
I just noticed, what did they do to the first district to make it 9 points more Republican, and why? They probably could have added a few rats to the Pittsburgh seat too instead of apparently shedding a few.
Yeah, I caught that, too. It’s unfortunate they didn’t move those into one of the adjacent seats (the 13th ?) which could’ve brought it down to competitive. I think if we got creative enough, we could get a 15R-3D breakdown, with the 2 Philly seats and 1 in Pittsburgh (of course, that would potentially jeopardize more than a few of ours in a bad year).
I’m still waiting on the maps in TN and whether we go for breaking up Nashville three ways to get an 8R-1D delegation.
Some enemy nation may do that someday.
I’m in Holden’s district. A Republican won’t win there for a long time now.
and here is the After redistricting
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