Iowa: Romney 23%, Gingrich 20%, Paul 18% (Rasmussen)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 12/15/2011 | Rasmussen Reports

[floridarunner01]

For the fifth straight survey, the GOP field has a new frontrunner in Iowa.

[floridarunner01]

Full article hasnt been posted yet.

[TexasFreeper2009]

what?

[Sacajaweau]

It’s ridiculous that Paul has that following!

[SVTCobra03]

Whiskey, Tango, Foxtrot, Over?

[Berlin_Freeper]

1/50

[af_vet_rr]

He had it in 2008 and look where that got him. He’s getting ready to do a money bomb tomorrow as well.

[sodpoodle]

Fox and Friends of Mitt have done their job!!!

[TexasFreeper2009]

Gingrich didn’t lose his support, they just moved to the undecided column, and will return after considering the alternatives.

Romney is about where he has been all year, low 20’s

[Notwithstanding]

True to form, Romney holds steady at revolting 77% of the party.

[cricket]

Should put a smile on Karl Rove's face; Ann Coulter's; and Glenn Beck's! And all at RNC; of course.

OTOH. . .maybe Newt wants New Hampshire; more. (Historically, does not follow suit here; but one never knows; so would think most candidates simply, would want it all. )

Can only say; GO Newt!

[Lib-Lickers 2]

Iowa picked GHW Bush over Reagan in 1980.. Dole over GHW Bush in 1988 and Huckabee in 2008.. kind of an irrelevant state in regards to picking the nominee

[lexington minuteman 1775]

The fix is in...the media wants Romney so they are now tweaking numbers...they took out Bachman,Perry, and Cain. The only one left was Gingrich...I don’t know what they plan to do if Paul pulls in front...but I am sure they have a plan B.
Freegards
Lex

[jersey117]

I don’t put a lot of stock in these polls. Lots of people have dropped land lines. I think Iowa is wide open for all of the candidates.

[xzins]

Interesting to see if Rasmussen has stayed with “likely republican voters” or if he has switched to just “likely voters” or “registered voters”

Also good to see the margin of error and if it’s a statistical tie.

Iowa, if it chooses Mitt Romney, has handed him the presidency, because Mitt will win or go 2nd in New Hampshire and the entire media world, Fox included, will proclaim Mitt the winner of the nomination...

and the sheeple will follow.

[cricket]

Agree; can only say 'zany' and worse; from the 'horses mouth'. . .

If this keeps up; we will need a new Party ID. . .

[wolfman23601]

Just as I predicted yesterday (and got flamed for). The attacks on Newt are slowly eroding his support and we are going to get stuck with Romney, who will win with 25% with the conservative vote split too many ways. I am an anybody but Mitt guy, and at this point, I’d be willing to throw my support behind Ron Paul if polls continue to show he has a chance (though I still hope Perry can get a 2nd chance).

[Berlin_Freeper]

It’s not like the Democrats need to vote for Obama in their primary so shenanigans are definitely at play. Now we know who they fear as being the front runner.

[apillar]

Well according to Ann Coulter, Mitt Romney is the most conservative candidate in the Republican Primary...How she managed to make that claim and keep a straight face I'll never know, Team Romney must have sent her one heck of a big check...

[dforest]

I believe you are right. The fix is in. It will be Romney whether we like it or not.

But then we knew that. Last time it was McCain’s turn because he got all huffy when Bush beat him. He was basically on the rocks and “voila” all at once he rises to the top.

People must be getting paid.

The major pimp Romney push has been on FOX since the last debate to try and get us to accept Romney.

They know people don’t like him.

[org.whodat]

Plan b is that no one has voted yet, backmann and santorum are still there, vote for them, they are the two conservatives.

[Notwithstanding]

The debate tension kicks up another few notches.

It will be nice to see Paul under the microscope. Perhaps he will be asked about his newsletter’s description of Martin Luther King. Perhaps his newsletters will show him to be what he is: zany.

[floridarunner01]

Polls dont show Romney going up though. It shows Gingrich coming down but Romney cannot break past the low 20s no matter what anyone does.

[no dems]

Here’s the thing about Ron Paul in Iowa. His supporters WILL show up. That’s why he’s going to place in 1st or 2nd. It’s a shame but, that’s the way it is. His supporters, unlike the other people who respond to the polls, get off their a** and get the job done.

[Notwithstanding]

Does America really want Bishop Romney to be president?

Romney pretends that he was a pastor, but Mormons don’t have pastors, they have bishops. And Romney was a bishop, and among Mormons a bishop retains that title for life even after he relinquishes those duties.

[TexasFreeper2009]

quote “Polls dont show Romney going up though. It shows Gingrich coming down but Romney cannot break past the low 20s no matter what anyone does.”

*ding ding ding* we have a winner!

[no dems]

Your Post #11 makes a valid point.

[hershey]

Fox had Newt in the lead a few minutes ago.

[no dems]

Ann Coulter has been showing for some time that she is more “Republican” than she is “Conservative”. She’s in love with the RINO, Chris Christie. I don’t even listen to her anymore.

[BfloGuy]

Interesting to see if Rasmussen has stayed with “likely republican voters”

Of course he has.

Sheesh. One poll comes out with numbers some people don't like and they automatically blame the media for lying or the pollster for switching methods. Face it. Newt's numbers in Iowa have been collapsing for a week now.

He might still win it. Who knows? Rasmussen found that only 40% of the respondents were sure of their vote. For a bunch of people who claim not to give a damn about polls, everyone here sure gets upset over them.

[apillar]

Just as I predicted yesterday (and got flamed for). The attacks on Newt are slowly eroding his support and we are going to get stuck with Romney, who will win with 25% with the conservative vote split too many ways

Yep, it's 2008 all over again. With Conservatives currently splitting around 25% Newt, 10% Perry, 10% Bachmann, then there are the Paulbots that are a solid 15% or so. That means all Mitt has to do is hold onto around 25% of the party that are RINO's, add another 3%-5% for the democrat/independent crossover primary voters and he's McCain v2.0...

That's how a party that is 75% conservative nominated a "moderate" in 2008...

[sodpoodle]

OMG - Fox is replaying Mitt’s sound bytes over and over.

Romney sounds erratic and desperate - but they don’t get it.

[InterceptPoint]

The fix is in...the media wants Romney so they are now tweaking numbers...they took out Bachman,Perry, and Cain.

Well yes and no.

Yes, the media (and the Republican elite) want Romney. No, Rasmussen is not going to mislead us with his polling. If we can't trust Rasmussen polling then we are in real trouble.

Now with PPP you might have a good argument. But not Rasmussen.

[Tomato lover]

“The fix is in...the media wants Romney so they are now tweaking numbers...they took out Bachman,Perry, and Cain.”

Since they took out Cain, I have no interest in any of this mess.

By the way, where is Herman Cain? Did he drop off the planet? We are concerned for his safety.

Waiting for them to present someone for whom I can vote.

[no dems]

The fix is in. It will be Romney whether we like it or not.
______________________________________________________________
There’s no “fix”. Our guys, the Conservatives, are dividing the Conservative vote. And then, you have Ron Paul taking a share of the, what-would-be some Conservative votes. So, Romney wins with a plurality. Simple; no fix. It’s a shame that Conservatives can’t come together on one candidate. At least the Evangelicals of Iowa finally united on Michele Bachmann. Little good it will do, but at least they coalesced around one candidate. So, you’re right; we will end up with Mitt Romney as the GOP nominee for President. JUST DAMN!!!

[montag813]

He’s getting ready to do a money bomb tomorrow as well.

Million more for brutal anti-Newt ads, which help Romney, but not Paul himself, it seems.

[LuvFreeRepublic]

Mitt will end up as the GOP nominee and Obama will get another 4 years.

[deport]

Interesting to see if Rasmussen has stayed with “likely republican voters” or if he has switched to just “likely voters” or “registered voters”

---

Per the Rassmussen site:

The survey of 750 Likely Iowa Republican Caucus Participants was conducted on December 13, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports.

[C210N]

see if Rasmussen has stayed with “likely republican voters” or if he has switched to just “likely voters” or “registered voters”...

None of those. Rasmussen is now using the "Most Likely Agreeing With Scott" voters.

[no dems]

“the media wants Romney...they took out Bachman,Perry, and Cain.”
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
I’ll agree that the media took out Cain and they are doing their best to take out Newt. But, let’s be fair: Michele’s mouth and mean-spirited attacks against everyone in the GOP field took her out. The fact that Perry is as dumb as a coal bucket took him out.

[montag813]

The attacks on Newt are slowly eroding his support and we are going to get stuck with Romney, who will win with 25% with the conservative vote split too many ways.

That's not enough this year, because the GOP has adopted proportional delegates. Romney can't end this fast like the vile McCain did in 2008. This thing could remain a 4-way race through May. Perry and Paul have plenty of cash to stay. Unprecedented.

[DM1]

“Iowa picked GHW Bush over Reagan in 1980.. Dole over GHW Bush in 1988 and Huckabee in 2008.. kind of an irrelevant state in regards to picking the nominee”

the difference this time though is that Romney was not expected to win Iowa. If he pulls off a win no matter how close (or even comes in second) it will give him an advantage in some of the earlier states with the good press that follows. Particularly NH. That being said the race is still fluid and looking at the numbers even Ron Paul could pull off the upset here - only poll that counts is election day.

[Reeses]

True to form, Romney holds steady at revolting 77% of the party.

Don't they know he's a Harvard trained lawyer? Don't they admire the way he handles the media questions with slick evasive answers that display obvious and massive deception? Don't they want a man that knows how to loot a business by laying off Americans, importing H1Bs, and loading it up with so much debt it goes bankrupt? Don't they want a man in magic underwear that has lost so many elections in the past that his number must be coming up this time? I don't understand it.

[Friendofgeorge]

I have no horse in the race, but all this means is that Ras does not personally like Newt.

All the pollsters manufacture opinion, and everybody but me it seems, believes them

[Wurlitzer]

Romney=Obama light
Newt=Top notch Press Secretary or policy maker. Self destructs too many times.
Cain=Great ideas but seems to have a groin problem
Perry=Smile no substance

Paul=Great ideas except for Foreign policy but way too old and would hand the election to the big BO.

Come on there has to be someone in a country of 350Million +/- that can beat a sitting president who hates the country, believes the founders were wrong, is attempting to accomplish the Cloward & Piven strategy in as few years as possible, is such a racist he deserves the title of exalted leader of the Klan With a Tan.

[DM1]

“Just as I predicted yesterday (and got flamed for). “

that is the one thing i cannot stand about this site. you state reality and you get demonized for it. some people are WAY too over emotional and turn a blind eye and a deaf ear since they cannot accept reality.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

This is obviously a skewed poll. Rasmussen has been known to get it completely wrong countless times.

For Gingrich to go from over 35%, to being down over 15 points in one day, there is something totally wrong with the poll.

Rasmussen also has his own agenda and he uses it in the early polling season, then tightens it up when his reputation is at stake. His polling method is also rather flawed compared to others.

I say, if this trend continues for another 2 weeks, from all the polls, then there is a problem for Newt.

[Mechanicos]

Did you know that marketing research can determine whether you are a conservative or a liberal by your purchasing and TV viewing patterns?

They also can with great accuracy predict your political leanings by your zip code. Also, telephone number lists are generally sold by demographic, income, zip code, race, voting patterns, etc.

So when you see a public released political poll like all those mentioned this early in a major political race; in addition to number polled and likely voters - also ask yourself what information is provided to determine the lists used to select the zip code and demographics to interview for the “poll;” what is the assurance of quality of the interviewers; the time of day the calls occurred; who paid for the poll; do they have a known agenda; what were the total questions asked, etc? Without this information the polls are only saying whatever whomever is paying for them want them to say.

And yes, there are millions of rea$on$ to lie and make up multiple “polls” to manipulate people. If you think its not possible to do this kind of manipulation on a large scale, please see the push manipulation for AGW as just one of the better known examples.

Nevertheless, we all saw the outpouring of volunteers and individual cash donations for Palin and Cain. That is hard to fake. If The 2 alleged front runners are doing so well where are the similar individual efforts to support them?

The way the game is played is to set it up so the ones people like are always downplayed and the people have to chose to vote for a lesser evil to prevent a worse evil from winning.It’s very effective.

Yes, the polls do look close to accurate in the end. That’s because of the self fulfilling prophecy and the power of manipulation by the professionals. People are easy to herd when its marketed properly...

[Rennes Templar]

That pretty well sums it up. Rather depressing.

[wolfman23601]

Romney is a lock in NH. If he wins Iowa, game over.

[Reagan69]

Margin of error?

If Newt puts in a strong performance tonight at the debate, I think he will win Iowa, followed by SC & Florida.

He could be #2 or #3 in NH.