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Posted on 11/13/2011 2:26:07 PM PST by justsaynomore
Businessman Herman Cain is the favorite of Tennessee voters for the state’s March 6 presidential Republican primary election, but female voters are far less likely to support him. That pattern is unlikely to change in light of allegations of sexual harassment against him, according to a new poll by the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions at Vanderbilt University.
Cain was the choice of 22 percent of 823 likely primary voters polled Oct. 28 through Nov. 5. The poll was conducted as the sexual harassment claims started to arise. Yet Cain’s support did not change much as the story unfolded. Cain beat his closest competitor, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, by eight percentage points. The actual winner of the primary was “the undecideds.”
“Two things are clear from this poll,” said John Geer, Distinguished Professor of Political Science and co-director of the poll. “First, none of the candidates are wildly popular in the state. Second, Cain draws disproportionate support from males.”
Male voters supported Cain over Romney 27.1 percent to 12 percent, while women preferred Cain just 15.4 percent to Romney’s 13 percent, which is within the poll’s plus or minus 2.6 percent error rate.
The poll, conducted by the standards of the American Association of Public Opinion Research, was weighted to ensure that the sample was representative of Tennessee in terms of age, gender, education, region and race/ethnicity.
“Tennesseans can receive valuable information about the opinions of their fellow citizens through this poll,” Geer said. “The Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions is pleased to provide this important public service.”
Following Cain and Romney in the poll of Republican favorites were Texas Gov. Rick Perry (9 percent), U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (all with 6 percent) and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania (1 percent). The largest number of respondents, 28 percent, said they didn’t yet know who they would vote for.
The poll also showed Cain, Perry and Romney all to be formidable opponents for President Obama in the November general election should they get the nomination. Romney was the most dangerous to Obama, beating him 42 to 28 percent. Cain would narrowly defeat Obama, but a race against Perry was nearly a dead heat.
The entrance of a credible independent candidate would be very advantageous to Obama, according to the poll. The addition of such a candidate into the mix would make Obama the winner against all his potential Republican opponents.
Ping!
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I love Newt, one of my personal choices, but I’m concerned. His working knowledge of our political landscape is second to none, but his biggest drawback is that he lacks mass appeal. Obama is a perfect example of how appeal can trump substance; radical as hell, zero experience, but he connected with voters. Newt could win the nomination - I’d support him 100% - but I have doubts he will strike a chord with voters outside of the GOP base. Fair or not, the MSM will stereotype him as the old, boring, elitist Republican & it’s only a matter of time before they air his dirty laundry. Reagan was equally intelligent, but his passion & charisma - his innate ability to relate to the common man - is why he captured independents and “Reagan Democrats.” People want to be inspired, not talked down to. If it wasn’t for the media’s attacks on Cain, who led nationally (still does) & Iowa by double digits, would Newt even be in contention as the choice of his own party?
I love the south!
People want to be inspired, not talked down to.
...................................
You have hit the nail on the head!
Newt is an Intellectual Giant but he makes everyone else feel like a Mental Midget.
I loved Ronald Reagan and the person who gives me that same sense of inspiration and confidence that this Nation can be turned around is Herman Cain.
If Cain can keep his momentum rolling and looks like a winner a lot of the opposition to Cain will vanish. The enthusiasm for Newt is merely the lastest flailing around by the GOP Machine for a "Winner". Right now most of the opposition to Cain is being fed by the "he cannot win" propaganda being fed to the Media by the Rove directed GOP Establishment Media machine.
Cain just needs to keep doing what he is doing. Connecting to the voters and not worry about the media hype.
Newt’s a brilliant professor.
Cain’s an inspirational leader.
They’d make a great team.
I find it disheartening that this poll (and others) claims to find that women voters are 'abandoning' Herman Cain over these transparently false allegations of alleged sexual harassment. That plays right into the Obama/DNC game plan. I can only hope that either the polls are skewed or that Herman Cain can surmount these unfair and highly suspicious sexual harassment allegations stemming from over a decade ago. The media water-carriers for the DNC cannot be allowed to choose our candidate again.
You speak the truth! Unfortunately, most of us have to make decisions that are NOT what we would do under ideal circumstances. This year, Newt looks really good - so does almost everybody else though..heh.
I understand that the outrageous allegations against Cain are probably NOT true and may be part of the anti-Republican conspiracy (not something that either the Democrats or the media will admit). Seems too pat, especially with all of the Chicago complainants.
Let’s just get together and insure that Obama does not win - whatever that takes!
I think just about every woman has been sexually harassed or assaulted at some point in her life. Maybe not at work but in school, in public where ever.
I think there is a natural assumption in women to believe the accusers in these cases since it matches with her personal experiences.
Yes, I think this trend is troublesome but not fatal. As this story goes on and the facts comes out, I suspect a lot of that suspicion of Cain in women's minds is going to be assuaged.
“I love Newt, one of my personal choices, but I’m concerned. His working knowledge of our political landscape is second to none, but his biggest drawback is that he lacks mass appeal”
That is the problem in a nutshell.
If the entire race was nothing but weekly debates and no campaigning then Newt would have been president in 1996.
VP for Cain? Absolutely! Biden would have to call off the debate early because he would be demolished.
Romney still leads in states.
ROMNEY (19) 219 [241]
(12+7+6+55+6+4+3+3+9+10+16+10+3+3+14+29+11+7+4+3+4)
WA, OR, CA, NV, UT, WY,
ID, CO, MN, MI, NY, NJ,
MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NH, VT
11+5+3+38+6+20+18+20+10+5+13+15+9+16+29+11+4+4
Cain (18) 237 [221]
SD, NE, IA, OH, PA, ME
WV, VA, TN, NC, SC, GA
FL, TX, AZ, HI, WI, IL
Perry (13) 76
AZ, NM, OK, KA, MO, AR
LA, AL, KY, IN, ND, MT
AK
Gingrich (1) 6
MS
[] - Split PA, VA, MT, AK -> Romney
To overtake, Cain needs: IN + MO. OR PA win,
Also, what’s going on with NM and ND? I have both as Cain leading Perry states. Is Mitt stronger in either state than Cain right now? I don’t know.
Edit, Perry down to 12. Last win was Louisiana.
Race seems to be firming up between Cain and Romney by this trailing indicator.
Cain is very close to being the frontrunner. Romney’s cap is 21 states, and Cain is up to 18 now from nothing.
Slick Willard is going to get trounced.
He’s not a guy who excites the base or would be capable of uniting the party and leading it to victory.
Remember, the MSM hasn’t unloaded the baggage on him yet. When they do, his ratings will take a steep fall.
The American people don’t know who Mittens is yet. But should he get the nomination and they learn who he really is, they won’t vote for him.
None of us on here wants to tell the Party Establishment, “we told you so.” Some people just have to learn the hard way about Mitt Romney.
Let me know if you are still feelin the love after reading this
First Amend, NOT!!!
Newt Gingrich Co-Sponsored the 1987 Pro-Fairness Doctrine Bill
http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2011/04/29/newt-gingrich-co-sponsored-the-1987-pro-fairness-doctrine-bill/
Howard Dean Endorses Newt
http://articles.cnn.com/2010-07-25/politics/gingrich.dean_1_newt-gingrich-gingrich-candidacy-howard-dean?_s=PM:POLITICS
Stop the Insanity say no to Newt
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-11-10/politics/30381368_1_newt-gingrich-conservatives-herman-cain
Newt with his BFFS Princess Pelosi, Kerry and Al Sharpton
http://www.mofopolitics.com/2011/11/09/friendly-reminder-newt-gingrich-is-a-rino-wimp-and-a-scumbag/
Newt loves HC mandates always has
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2011/05/13/newt-gingrich-long-time-supporter-of-health-insurance-mandates/3/
>>I can only hope that either the polls are skewed
I can’t imagine poll out of Vandy being anything but.
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