Obama fails all viability tests

The Hill ^ | 11/01/11 | Dr. David Hill

[neverdem]

Last week’s column asserting that the president is unelectable has triggered strong responses. Democrats, in particular, seem to think my judgment is premature. It strikes them as ridiculous that anyone could make such a “bold prediction” so far in advance of the 2012 election. Hey, that’s what we do, as seasoned political professionals, as pollsters. But I must stress that I am not so much making a personal prediction as drawing an informed conclusion based on all the numbers available. I do this in each election cycle for other candidates, and it’s time to make the call on President Obama.

Whenever I have an incumbent client running for reelection, I insist on a viability study about a year out from the election — so, in the case of the presidential race, right about now. Anything that I do for my own, I should do for the opposition. So here goes. First, I look at the polling results from traditional “deserves reelection” questions, the gold standard of viability testing. The most recent nationwide public poll I could find was one conducted by Quinnipiac University early last month. It showed 42 percent saying the president deserves reelection while 54 percent say he doesn’t. While this reelect number by itself is not necessarily a doomsday figure, it’s the 54 percent on the con side that’s a killer. Most often, there is a large undecided percentage, but here it’s only 4 points. Voters have closed their minds — and the book on this president. It ensures that when Obama faces a Republican nominee, the undecided voters in early polling will eventually vote against an undeserved reelection.

The second numbers I peruse are perceptions of accomplishments. Eventually, Republicans will ask voters, “What has Barack Obama really accomplished?” and he must answer. A Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted in his first year found that only 14 percent of all voters felt he had accomplished “a great deal ” during his initial nine months in office, his “salad days.” I cannot find evidence that the same question has been asked lately, but is there any chance that the result would be much different? In its Moving America Forward manifesto, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee says Obama, with help from congressional Democrats, has five accomplishments: created private sector jobs, reduced debt, kept taxes low, passed a healthcare plan and reformed Wall Street. That’s the group’s best list. Do you think most Americans believe Obama has accomplished those things? Aside from passing a healthcare plan, he has done almost none of that, in the public’s mind. According to the latest AP polling, conducted in mid-October, the president’s average approval rating across those five areas is 42 percent. Obama brings no record of genuine accomplishment to his bid for reelection.

The third set of determinative data for an incumbent is perception of the direction of the nation or state. Everyone knows this is the biggest problem for Obama. The latest CBS/New York Times poll has the “right direction” at 21 percent. It hasn’t been above 30 percent since the early summer. Incumbents simply don’t get reelected when three-fourths of the electorate see things “seriously off” on the “wrong track.” Even if Obama’s approval ratings or likability were better, he could not overcome the negative sentiment that demands a change in direction. Americans are going to demand and get change next November.

So Obama fails on all counts. The numbers say that voters don’t think he deserves reelection, he has no meaningful accomplishments, and the nation is headed off in the wrong direction under his watch. He is simply not viable by any measure. That’s an empirically informed, hard-nosed judgment. This isn’t a movie or fantasy tale where a miracle occurs at the last moment to save the day. If Democrat campaign professionals don’t start acknowledging the same, and intervening, they risk Obama bringing down their entire ticket.

David Hill is a pollster that has worked for Republican candidates and causes since 1984.

[Windflier]

"Obama fails on all counts. The numbers say that voters don’t think he deserves reelection, he has no meaningful accomplishments, and the nation is headed off in the wrong direction under his watch. He is simply not viable by any measure.

That’s an empirically informed, hard-nosed judgment. This isn’t a movie or fantasy tale where a miracle occurs at the last moment to save the day. If Democrat campaign professionals don’t start acknowledging the same, and intervening, they risk Obama bringing down their entire ticket."

I'd say that the majority of Freepers made that same call some time ago. Good to see that some in the professional political class are finally beginning to come to grips with the obvious.

[Pres Raygun]

There is only one statistic that will determine Obama’s chance of reelection and that is the unemployment rate. If it doesn't drop below 7.5% by next November, he is toast and will be destroyed by a landslide.

[nathanbedford]

The author fails to mention nationwide protests, port closings, disruptions, general strike, and a general feeling of aimlessness and failure. The question is, are these things the result of the polling numbers or are they the result of men like Obama and Soros who read these polling numbers and instigated the Occupy Wall Street movement?

It has been my contention all along that for a politician to associate himself with this movement is to court a backlash which anyone familiar with the Democrat convention in 1968 would say is almost certain to be fatal at the polls. Why would Obama associate himself with OWS? Even more, why would he and Soros provoke it?

The obvious conclusion is that they have read these poll numbers a long time ago and drew the same conclusion as the author. Obama cannot win a conventional election contest. They seek to change the game by kicking over the board and playing a new game. Whether they intend to do this within the bounds of the Constitution or otherwise remains to be seen. How far they will go with violence, counter violence, and repression remains to be seen.

[Windflier]

There is only one statistic that will determine Obama’s chance of reelection and that is the unemployment rate. If it doesn't drop below 7.5% by next November, he is toast and will be destroyed by a landslide.

No doubt, the Obama people know this, and will do everything in their power to sell the lie that unemployment has dropped by next summer. The question is, will they get away with it, and will anyone believe them?

My guess is no, because Obama's Marxist policies will ensure that unemployment continues to rise. Folks will be faced with believing the WH spin, and their lying eyes.

"Summer of Recovery II" anyone? LOL

[Darkwolf377]

The most interesting move by the Obama campaign is its attempt to ignore his first 3 years or so in office--he has no achievements except dividing the nation. So he is now running on things he is bringing up this fall--a jobs bill no one believes is serious and everyone knows will and must fail, and this creation of The Evil Rich as the source of all our woes. He is not out there bragging about healthcare. He is not talking about foreign policy. He is trying to talk about UBL but his constituents think the war on terror is a farce, and everyone else knows he is merely continuing Bush policies and the military are doing the work.

All he has is division and fear of having to live as adults instead of sucking off the achievers[`if Republicans get in you`re on your own`].

[drunknsage]

You are probably right, which is sad, considering Operation Fast and Furious should alone be his undoing. Unfortunately the Republicans have to get it together and pull out someone who is actually electable.

Perry and Romney dont stand a chance. A Cain/Paul ticket would crush Obama. You cant win without the libertarians or independents and Perry only resonates with Teaparty folks who are either ignorant of his record or unable to critically think beyond his well crafted talking point speeches. RHINO’s need to go to the back of the bus or simply go home as I blame them and their, Conservative when convenient, legislation for the downfall of this country.

08 should have been a lesson for what happens when you run a RHINO vs a Democrat yet I see the same Republicans happily skipping in ignorance down the same road of failure. The Bush doctrine has been going for 12 years and we are knee deep in garbage because of it. Obama was more than happy to continue it and i have no doubt that Perry and Romney will do nothing but maintain the status quo and you only need to look at who in the party supports them for evidence.

[crazyhorse691]

Voters are just now figuring out that Carter was one of the greatest POTUS ever... compared to Obama. But, the MSM still has a large investment in Obama and is not going to go quietly into the night and not be heard from ever again. Even with Obamas almost certain defeat for re-election the media will just turn up the heat on the victors. Pres. Giuliani better watch out(JUST KIDDING).

[SF_Redux]

from article ..

” In its Moving America Forward manifesto, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee says Obama, with help from congressional Democrats, has five accomplishments: created private sector jobs, reduced debt, kept taxes low, passed a healthcare plan and reformed Wall Street. That’s the group’s best list. Do you think most Americans believe Obama has accomplished those things? “

.... only a reid or pelosi would agree

[HiTech RedNeck]

Wal... it is rather obvious. Obama ran on a blank slate which is now covered with crap. That was a one trick pony. A Republican ham sandwich by itself could walk away with his votes. What might not be able to do so would be a GOP mush and a third party conservative.

[lentulusgracchus]

I'd say that the majority of Freepers made that same call some time ago.

Don't say that too loudly ..... the Hildebeast is stirring in her cave, and when she comes out, she'll come out hungry!

[HiTech RedNeck]

Only the craziest, most tunnel visioned special pleading could come up with those conclusions. He made things cushier for his liberal union pals, to a point. But even socialists run out of other people’s money, and Wisconsin illustrates what happens when they do.

[Boogieman]

Cain/Paul? Well, I guess that would be better impeachment/assassination insurance than Joe Biden.

[Utmost Certainty]

No matter how bad the economy gets, odds are Obama will be reelected.

Count on voters being wooed over yet again by lofty promises of what Obama says he will do, rather than looking at his record of consistent failure—all of which will be explained away as the fault of the “do-nothing Republican Congress.”

[Darkwolf377]

Per my post #7—as you point out, Obama’s only hope is creating a new situation. Notice how strongly he came out for the OWS folks, and how quickly he shut up about that. (Too late—everyone knows.)

He is desperately seeking to change the subject. He seems to think that if he can get MSNBC to talk about something else, the tens of millions who don’t care what Chris Matthews thinks will just go along.

I keep thinking of the 2004 election, where no one really predicted one of the big stealth issues—gay marriage, instituted by judges. Similarly, this year, OWS is on parade 24/7, without words asking the American people, ‘Is THIS what you want?’

[BigSkyFreeper]

And we can all hope he’s one of the 9% and not one of the 1%

[laweeks]

the Hildebeast is stirring in her cave, and when she comes out, she'll come out hungry!

Boy, you got that right! As you've probably seen, she's combed what's left of her hair and had a putty and spackle job on her face. No one can convince me that her trip to a plastic surgeon was anything less than a "get ready" to somehow dislodge Obambi or his idiot VP Biden.

Not only am I worried about what the Hitlerbeast is plotting, but I rue the day that the putty and spackle falls off her face.

[fatnotlazy]

And of course, there are all those dead voters who will vote for him. They are already committed to Obama.

[lentulusgracchus]

As you've probably seen, she's combed what's left of her hair....

LOL! EX-cellent!!