Posted on 08/30/2011 1:52:10 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
The Obama administration made what was supposed to be a pre-emptive strike on Texas Governor Rick Perry, but which turned out to be, in baseball terms, a “swing … and a miss.” The administration unleashed Education Secretary Arne Duncan to attack Texas’s record on education, with Duncan saying he feels “very, very badly for the children.” When pressed to explain precisely what Texas has done wrong on education, Duncan came up a bit short on specifics. The Education Secretary’s arguments have generated a lot of useful discussion across the web, but I thought I would throw some rudimentary data analysis into the picture.
To start, if you want to get an accurate picture of the quality of a school system, you ideally want to measure inputs and outputs: what does a school system generate given what it starts with? One input is money, which we’ll look at. But another, more important, input is the kids entering the system. Put simply, Texas schools start with many kids from poor or single parent homes, or for whom English isn’t a first language. You wouldn’t, after all, expect schools in inner city Chicago—those once overseen by Secretary Duncan—to outperform schools in suburban Lake Forest. Controlling by race isn’t a perfect way to handle this, but to ignore race is to say that schools bear full responsibility for the performance of kids who come from extremely challenging backgrounds, which is silly.
If you look at Texas’s simple average test scores in reading and math for fourth and eighth grade students, they’re about average—not great, but not terrible. Why Duncan would pick on a state that’s in the middle of the pack rather than a true laggard is anybody’s guess. But even then, the comparison is bogus simply because Texas schools serve a population with several challenges, in particular many low-income and Spanish speaking children.
To account for this, I tabulated average test scores by race for each state using data from the National Center for Education Statistics, then weighted the scores using Census data on the racial composition of each state. I then calculated Texas’s standing in the distribution. A percentile figure indicates the percent of states whose scores Texas beats; for instance, Texas’s weighted average test score in fourth grade reading is in the 62nd percentile, meaning that Texas students score better than 62 percent of students nationwide. (For those of you who didn’t attend Texas schools, that means that Texas did pretty well.)
This exercise is really nothing more than what the genius blogger Iowahawk wrote up a few months ago. (Is Iowahawk a genius because he understands weighted averages? No, he’s a genius because he writes stuff like this.) What the data shows is that, once you take the racial composition of the states into account, Texas does a lot better than Duncan gave it credit for. In eighth grade math Texas is at the 88th percentile, meaning it beats almost nine out of ten states. Overall, Texas is at the 71st percentile, which isn’t shabby at all.
Texas looks particularly good when you consider how much it spends on education. The next chart shows the weighted average fourth and eighth grade reading and math scores against state spending per pupil. The idea is to get some feel for the “bank for the buck” generated by the education systems of different states. The diagonal regression line shows the average relationship between spending and test scores—for each extra thousand dollars of per pupil spending, average test scores rise by around 1.1 points. The chart and regression exclude two huge outliers, Hawaii and Washington, D.C., which have very high per pupil spending but generate low test scores even after adjusting for the racial composition of their populations. (Hawaii may fall into this group because of its large population of Pacific Islanders, who are lumped together with generally high-performing Asian students. D.C. is, well, D.C.)
The key to this chart is that states to the upper left of the regression line seem to generate a better bang for the buck—they produce higher scores at lower costs than the average state. Texas, shown in red, is in this group. Based on its level of spending, Texas’s average test score “should” be around 246, the 36th percentile, but in reality it’s 253, the 71st percentile. And while Texas’s test scores are in the 71st percentile nationwide, its per pupil spending is in the 26th percentile—meaning that it performs better than roughly three-quarters of states while spending less than roughly three-quarters of states. Put another way, Texas’s education system generates scores that the average state would spend an extra $6,350 per pupil to produce.
Finally, let’s look at high school graduation rates. After all, Duncan said that “Far too few of [Texas] high school graduates are actually prepared to go on to college,” for which I presume that graduating high school is one important prerequisite. Across all racial groups, Texas graduates a greater percentage of its high school freshmen than the U.S. average. In one case, Asians, Texas’s graduation rate is well above average—99 percent versus 91 percent nationally. And in the case of Native Americans, Texas’s graduation rate is massively higher—85 percent versus only 61 percent nationwide.
My takeaway isn’t that Texas is unlucky to have Rick Perry overseeing their schools. Rather, it’s that Texas is unlucky to be situated next to Mexico rather than Canada. If Texas had the population of, say, Maine, its average test scores and graduation rates would be considered outstanding. (In fact, Texas’s weighted average test scores are well above those of Maine.) Given the huge challenges of educating children who come from single-parent homes, or who aren’t fluent in English, or who simply grew up poor, Texas isn’t doing that bad a job. In fact, Texas seems to outperform in most areas, and to do it at a significantly lower cost per pupil than many other states.
Andrew G. Biggs is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.
FURTHER READING: Biggs also writes “Means and Extremes: How Not to Balance the Budget,” “Public Pensions Roll the Dice,” “Senior Moment: Reduce COLAs and the Social Security Deficit,” and “Is Social Security Middle-Class Welfare?”
This piece is making Conservative and Liberal sites.
Will Rick Perry Unravel the Strange Consensus on Public Education?
But Rep. Shelia Jackson-Lee and her Democratic Party wanted Perry's signature so the "money would flow to our schools within days."
Gov. Perry sued for Texas' money (without Washington telling us how to spend it) -- And won! Promise Kept.
Mona Charen: NRO Beware those 'radical' ideas -- Good opinion piece on Perry and education – Reagan simplicity that works
Chris Christie article -- Even Democrats are now alarmed about the state of education in this country but its too late because the GOP owns this issue.
Perry Draws Flak for Plan to Run Universities Like Businesses ……..”Perry, who has been governor since 2000, has filled state boards and commissions with those who share his vision and has launched a public attack on college costs......"
What Are Texas’ Seven College Solutions? [snip] 1. Measure quality — The plan would calculate a cost-benefit analysis for professors. How much are they paid? How many classes do they teach? How many students? How do students rate those professor? The data would then be compiled into rankings, which students could review before choosing their instructors.
2. Recognize and reward teachers — This is merit pay for professors. The plan calls for the top 25 percent of professors to earn a bonus. Top bonuses would be $10,000 per class.
3. Separate budgets for teaching and research — This would allow colleges to better evaluate what kind of bang for its buck professors are providing. Splitting the pots of money would make it clearer how and why professors are paid.
4. Require evidence of skill for tenure — This would set easily-defined goals to earn tenure. For instance, a professor would have to earn a rating of 4.5 on a 5-point scale to be eligible for tenure. Likewise, a professor might have to teach at least three classes a semester, with at least 30 students in each class, for a set number of years before becoming eligible for tenure.
5. Results-based contracts with students — This amounts to a mortgage good faith estimate for students. Students would have to sign a document outlining the school’s class sizes, teacher evaluations, SAT scores of incoming students and other data that would allow them to make a better informed decision.
6. Funding in the hands of students — This proposal would take out the middle man in public funding. Some public money is given to schools as a tuition subsidy for student. The Texas Public Policy Foundation argues students will make the best decision if they get the money directly. Critics contend this creates a voucher system for colleges.
7. Create results-based accrediting alternatives — This proposal would gradually move schools away from traditional accrediting and create a national body similar to the Securities and Exchange Commission to evaluate college claims and actual results. Colleges that can not fulfill their recruiting pitch could be investigated for fraud. Establishing new accreditation would make it possible for more schools to enter the market. [snip]
Do you feel silly, or simply sil?
In this context, badly = adverb (modifies verb "feel"), and bad = adjective (modifies state of noun "I").
Next thing you know, you'll be expecting a lucid explanation of the term, "jobs saved".
The Left is getting all “wee-weed up” over what Perry would do to the Dept of Ed, the EPA, the Dept of Energy,......
As well they should be.
Excerpts from “Fed Up!”
“We are fed up with being overtaxed and overregulated. We are tired of being told how much salt we can put on our food, what windows we can buy for our house, what kinds of cars we can drive, what kinds of guns we can own, what kinds of prayers we are allowed to say and where we can say them, what political speech we are allowed to use to elect candidates, what kind of energy we can use, what kind of food we can grow, what doctor we can see, and countless other restrictions on our right to live as we see fit.”
“I do think George (W. Bush) is basically a conservative man who believes in God, in the greatness of America, in the protection of life, and in protecting our nation from our enemies ... (but) he turned a blind eye to undisciplined domestic spending while he focused on ensuring funding for a very important war against the perpetrators of terror.”
The administration unleashed Education Secretary Arne Duncan to attack Texas's record on education, with Duncan saying he feels "very, very badly for the children." When pressed to explain precisely what Texas has done wrong on education, Duncan came up a bit short on specifics. The Education Secretary's arguments have generated a lot of useful discussion across the web, but I thought I would throw some rudimentary data analysis into the picture.
Rick Klein sounded REALLY dumb!!
Yes - as well as defensive, out of his depth and petty (typical LIBERAL situation).
Greta did good.
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| Not to go off thread here but, just a little about jobs saved. The 2.5 million jobs 'created or saved' comes from a formula. The formula comes from a theory. It says that for every dollar the government spends, 1.5 dollars' worth of economic activity is generated, and presto, jobs come out. The economic geniuses working for Obama want us to believe that by definition, since they spent almost a trillion dollars in 'stimulus', they automatically created jobs. Once you know about this magic formula in which any government spending creates jobs, much becomes clear. That's why Pelosi claimed that unemployment insurance creates jobs faster than almost any other initiative. The Secretary of Agriculture told us August 16, 2011 that Food Stamps are an economic stimulus, explaining that every dollar of food stamp benefits generates $1.84 in the economy in terms of economic activity. The Congressional Budget Office reported that through the first quarter of 2011 the stimulus created between 1.6 million and 4.6 million jobs, increased real GDP by 1-3 percent, and reduced unemployment by up to 1.8 percentage points. Where did the CBO get these figures? It made them up using formulas. Payments to state and local governments for infrastructure were estimated to have a multiplier of between 1 and 2.5, whereas the multiplier for unemployment benefits, food stamps to individuals was between 0.8 and 2.1. That's it. That's the only reality to 2.5 million jobs created or saved. Historic.
It's all a crock... of Barack |
A cry in the black education wilderness - LINKS to education, leftists and race.
Reminds me of that line from “Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade”: “He chose.....poorly.”
I hope this author was being funny, rather than serious when he wrote that he didn't understand Duncan's motivations.
Arne Duncan is a politician, a Chicago Politician. He attacks Texas, because Texas is a big red state. The Obama machine have the red/blue map cemented in their brains, and all thoughts, utterances and actions are reflective of what color state they are addressing. They do not feel a part of the entire United States, but look on states with Republican governors, or states that voted for a Republican in the White House as their enemies. I am not exaggerating.
I have heard him say unbelievably stupid remarks about the improvements in student test scores which occurred "for the first time" after Obama was elected. The man is either a bold-face liar (typical dem), or delusional.
We should on play liberalism’s “smart” people...
Let’s begin with the President who is hiding his college transcripts and who created Obamacare and the current economy. His mouth pieces in the media rave about how smart he is, but he hides his transcripts.
How “smart” is it to choke off energy production in the United States making us even more dependent on energy in the Middle East which has been destabalized by the smart people?
How smart is it to back a bunch of “clean energy” operations with US tax money that are already out of business?
How smart is it to permit Holder to claim “his people” are of one color and that whites don’t have equal voting rights in this country?
I have worked with some of the world’s smartest people in science and medicine. They never go around talking about how smart they are. They are too smart to do that. :)
I think you filled in what the author knows and you did it nicely.
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