Analyzing the 2012 GOP Field – Palin, Trump, Romney, Huckabee on top

The Washington Times ^ | April 27, 2011 | Henry D'Andrea

[2ndDivisionVet]

The 2012 Republican Presidential field is still yet to be known. Speculation over candidates pours into the media every day. The truth is, though, that many Republican hopefuls are not taking the fight straight to Obama.

Most Republican hopefuls have either setup exploratory committees, or are still deciding whether or not to throw their hat into the ring. However, it seems columnists and those in the media like to write off certain Republican candidates as not running for the Oval office. Unfortunately, we do not know the truth until they announce their decision.

So, instead of speculating whose running and whose not, let’s evaluate a candidate’s true chance at winning the nomination.

Here’s my take. (Note: This is an analysis, not an endorsement)

First Tier Candidates

Sarah Palin:

Sarah Palin may appear to be not running for President, but if she does, she will steal headlines and media attention more than any other candidate. She has strong governing and executive experience that Republicans want.

Palin doesn’t display "politics as usual," and isn’t an establishment Republican. She’s unconventional, and her ability to raise money and draw a crowd will skyrocket her status. She has a strong following, and is statistically the most favorable candidate of primary voters.

Donald Trump:

Like him or hate him, think he’s Conservative or not; he’s a frontrunner. Not because of his “birtherism,” but because he is going after Obama aggressively, even though he isn’t a principled Conservative. He isn’t politically correct, and Republicans like that.

In sense, he is currently leading the Republican field, but not talking substance. Right now, Republicans want a leader; he’s filling the void… only for now.

Mitt Romney:

Romney has been seen as the presumptive frontrunner since the beginning.....

[2ndDivisionVet]

Since Mr. Trump isn't serious and Gov. Huckabee isn't running (he's building a $3.5 million dollar home in Florida) that leaves Gov. Palin versus Gov. Romney. Who do you think will win that contest?

[Persevero]

I’m not sure Trump isn’t serious.

[HiTech RedNeck]

Sarah would make mincemeat out of Mitt.

If Trump really does run, she can’t top him for sheer chutzpah, however.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"(Slick Willard) has been seen as the presumptive frontrunner since the beginning....."

By whom ? Only the leftist media whores and his paid agents pimp his candidacy.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Ping!!

[kingu]

Same statement as always: Without Trump in the early primaries to undercut Romney’s fundraising and ‘lead position’ through the liberal primaries, Sarah will be declared dead in the water before the primaries turn south. She can cruise in 3rd or 4th through the liberal primaries, and do quite well. Romney doesn’t have that luxury.

I’d still say Palin’s biggest obstacle to overcome is the fact that she quit being governor of Alaska. Well intentioned or not, it’s something that doesn’t inspire a lot of approval from the general voters.

Her fighting her way from third place to a fair victory in the south will go very far to erase this viewpoint from voter’s minds.

[sand88]

I believe Sarah will run and electrify her supporters. She will come out of the gate on total offense. I sense from all her interviews that she truly can't stand that the Marxist is destroying our Republic.

I think she looks at the rest of the field and can see how weak it is. She will run to win and destroy the Marxist. I still hold that she will win in a landslide (>370EV)

Real Americans will learn about the real Sarah and see her love of country as she campaigns. She is a tenacious fighter. She will bring over enough true Americans to win.

[so_real]

Analyzing the 2012 GOP Field – Palin, Trump, Romney, Huckabee on top

My take ... Huckabee couldn't beat McCain and McCain was no friend of Conservatism. Sorry, Huckabee, I like you personally. Not only could Romney not even beat Huckabee, but his healthcare plan has a reputation almost as bad as Obama's. Sorry, Romney, you are a complete non-starter. If it comes down to you and Obama, we get Obama (and hopefully gridlock) for another four years. I respect Trump as a businessman. I have no problem with seeking his advice in commerce. And I appreciate him putting Obama on the hot seat with the birth certificate (though it should have been about parentage and not scraps of paper). But we shoot ourselves in solidly in the foot if we confuse Trump with a "conservative". He isn't. He is exactly the shrewd kind of businessman the liberals associate with Republicans. They think he'll kill every whale and burn every redwood if that's what it takes to make a dollar -- heck, maybe he would! He might be able to fix the economy, but in the bigger picture he'll destroy the reputation of Conservative Republicans for decades to come and make winning further elections all but impossible. Short term gain; long term pain.

In this playing field the *only* candidate worthwhile is Palin. I do hope other *real* conservatives like Bachmann, Cain, West, Ryan, etc throw in too. It'll make the debates far more informative. But if all we are given to choose from are Trump, Huckabee, or Romney ... I will write Palin in.

[nathanbedford]

I agree with you on process-a process of elimination-but I disagree with your conclusion.

Every one of the potential candidates is flawed, Sarah Palin not the least among them. She is not flawed ideologically but with respect to electability. She has steadfastly declined to shape her delivery, her forensics if you will, to the point at which she can project gravitas, the level of seriousness and competence that independents always yearn for in a president because they vote the man, not his ideology.

Your analysis omits entirely Newt Gingrich. Like the other candidates, he too is flawed. Every time I posit his candidacy as the most plausible on balance from all perspectives among the current field, I get in response a photo of him sitting next to Nancy Pelosi on a couch. I never get any reasons or discussion of his conservative biography or a commonsense acceptance of his forensics skills. No acknowledgment is ever made of his intellectual capacity or his ability to debate. Sometimes, reference is made to his zipper problems. Yet, the same conservatives will strain at a gnat and swallow a camel as they puke all over their keyboards at the mention of Newt Gingrich but swoon at the idea of the mountebank, Trump.

By my process of elimination and based on the situation as we know it today, Newt Gingrich emerges as the most plausible candidate because his baggage does not outweigh his conservatism and his electability. This is a subjective judgment and I fully understand that other Freepers depart from me on this conclusion.

What I do not understand is the absence of engagement on the issue, the reflexive rejection of Newt Gingrich, often on mistaken assumptions while indulging a myopia for the weaknesses of the rest of the field.

[truthfreedom]

Ron Paul has announced, and a very possible outcome if Palin runs is that she wins handily and quickly, but even in that scenario, Ron Paul does pick up a substantial number of votes.

Is Gingrich in your scenario? The likelihood of Romney doing better than last time is questionable, seeing that the one thing that Romney was most known for 4 years ago, Romneycare, is now something that Republicans all hate. Palin is I think the most likely, but Gingrich more so than Romney. And even Paul can make the case that he’s the true conservative, and he’s been around long enough.

[truthfreedom]

I’d like to hear why Newt is so bad.

I hear “Global Warming” and “Globalist”.

That’s from a policy perspective.

And the situation with divorcing the wife is also bad.
Newt hasn’t been taking too many constant hits here. Mitt has. The despise level here of Newt is not as high as Mitt.

Republicans do like to give the nomination to candidates for good service. Newt did do a good job 16 years ago. Contract With America did work, and he was a Republican Hero for a short period of time. Since then, a bunch of not so good things, but he does have what would be equivalent to a top 5 win, or multiple top 5 wins. What has Romney done to be the presumptive front runner? Was there last time. He was the Governor of Mass, giving Gay Marriage and Romneycare. That’s not Republican. There are no victories.
Nobody really looked closely at what Bain Capital did, which was break companies up while pocketing big $. Romney did a little too much destroying companies for me.

I would like to hear the anti Gingrich side a little more, because I know so much unacceptable about Romney.

[YankeeinOkieville]

What I don’t get is why is the Donald even given an ounce of credence at all in these speculations? Until this past month or so he wasn’t even pretending to be a Republican.

[JessieHelmsJr]

awesome

[WVKayaker]

... She is not flawed ideologically but with respect to electability. ...

Your "analysis" is flawed. You take the usual trip down the MSM road, and try to convert that into a "no way, Jose" conclusion.

When Governor Palin announces, the floodgates will open, not with just money, but with energized supporters. She is in no hurry, and is carefully constructing a solid base. There are many ready to go to work for her. No sand under that woman, for sure...

Spin all you want, Newt is just another lizard!

Click to learn more about her...

Elect Sarah Palin for President 2012

Re-Elect President Sarah Palin 2016

[Friendofgeorge]

IT`s SARAH PALIN or BUST

[Friendofgeorge]

IT`s SARAH PALIN or BUST

[jla]

To 9 - I disagree with your assessment of Mrs Palin but you nevertheless remain one of the most rational people who post to this site. (And the voice recognition software appears to be functioning impeccably)

[Friendofgeorge]

On Trumps new found Christian pro life stance, I would like to know the month and year of his conversion.

He said something about becoming pro life after a friends experience with almost aborting a child? Just wondered what year that occurred, and then see if it jives with his statements at the time.

Just recently he said in a interview that he was pro life, but when asked if he though Roe v Wade should be over turned, he said something like, hold the phone, not sure about that.....

What type of judges then would he appoint to the Supreme Court? Is he going to have Ted Olson lead him through this process???

[668 - Neighbor of the Beast]

Character.

That’s the bottom line and those that don’t understand, won’t understand no matter how much extra discussion follows.

[ilgipper]

The core problems with Gingrich, of whom I at times have had great respect, are that he was basically jettisoned by the rest of the GOP leadership in the last 90s do to his conduct as Speaker, he has been very unreliable at time to the conservative movement (and fairly has also at times been our most successful advocate), and seems to be able to be bought by the highest bidder when it comes to many issues.

He is one of our greatest thinkers, and I welcome him to the debate because I think he will make the entire field better in their preparation for the general election. In the end, I think he would have trouble in a general election because he developed some of the same problems with the voting public 10 years ago that Palin has faced in the past 18 months. Both have a challenge to get beyond their established public opinion. As a newer face, I suspect Palin is more likely to be successful in a national election at some point in the next decade than Gingrich, who can be dismissed as a guy from an era past.