Posted on 04/21/2011 2:58:19 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
Yeah, yeah, we know: the election's not even this year. Eighteen months or something. But look, it's never too early for our first Larry Sabato electoral map!
Sabato is a hack.
Ping to link in post #2.
Obama got 365 electoral votes last time.
Chances of him re-winning the following states are remote at best: Florida (27), Ohio (20), N.Carolina (15), Va. (13), Indiana (11), Wisconsin (10).
That’s a total of 96 electoral votes which leaves Obama with 269 electoral votes - shy one vote of the presidency.
The east and west coast may give him the popular vote.
But presidents are elected in the Electoral College.
God thank the Founders for that.
Thanks. I was waiting for a link and its as I expected.
I think Sabato relies too heavily on past polling. The winds have shifted dramatically here in the midwest.
6.00 a gallon or higher and the other costs that come with the price of oil you can throw that map in the trash.
The GOP candidate, unless it’s some horrible candidate, can pretty much count on winning Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and Indiana. Probably New Hampshire too which swung back to the GOP in 2010. Nevada and Colorado are iffy. But these normally red states Obama won in 2008 will be back to red in 2012 without much doubt.
I disagree with a few parts of this map. Indiana is definitely not a toss-up. I’d rank it “Likely Republican.” Virginia and North Carolina are at least “Lean Republican.” I would rank Florida at least slightly Lean Republican. Maine would be “Lean Democrat” and New Hampshire would be “Lean Republican.” Michigan and Wisconsin are perhaps Tossups, but perhaps Lean Slightly Democrat. Ohio would probably Lean Slightly Republican. Otherwise, this map looks OK.
By the way, does Sabato’s electoral vote counts for each state take into account the changes from re-districting and the census?
That map shows the Republican would be behind by about 90 EVs. That is an uphill battle. The GOP better wake up. They put another McCain type old guy [retread], and the GOP will lose — again.
You can’t compare a mid-term election with a Presidential election in regards to the composition of the electorate. A lot of racist Blacks who don’t turn out for Mid-terms, WILL turn out for their Messiah.
I laugh at the way you (and many others here) are so dogmatic about Obama’s 2012 chances. So much can happen between now and then to change the political landscape. Nothing is certain this far out. All that needs to happen is we nominate some shallow clown, and Obama breezes to reelection.
Ad Hominem.
Obama’s negatives are at least 50% now, even with biased Gallup polls and such. That is death for a politician who is a known quantity. Once he’s gone negative with a voter, they do not change their mind back again, so it can only get worse for the President.
2012 will mainly be a referendum on Obama’s first term. In spite of a number of uncomfortable blanks about Obama’s past, we gave him a chance for “hope and change” in 2008.
Now Obama is proving to be a cypher, a zero. I know that the Republicans can still figure out a way to lose this thing, but three of the four serious candidates that will appear (I don’t know who they are yet) will be able to win, and win fairly easily.
CO will probably also flip back. Maybe NV and IA, too.
I think PA will be in play in 2012.
I was in Lowes today here in Richmond Va and stopped in the lighting section to pick up some conventional bulbs. Said something about stocking up so I won’t have to buy those rediculous curly-cue bulbs later on. When I left three other people in the aisle were muttering disloyal things about the Dark Lord and his minions. I believe this is happening everywhere in Virginia and across the country. Sabato probably doesn’t buy his own lightbulbs so is clueless (and this is just one issue).
Typical couch potato political punditry. Fact is the power of the presidency is such that it’s difficult under the best of circumstances to defeat the incumbent. We have a fighting chance at this point, but that’s all. Much depends on who we nominate. At this stage, I see a potential Clinton-Perot deal shaping up, with Trump in the Perot role. The same types of “real” conservatives who voted for Perot are lining up to vote for Trump, with the same, tired, predictably disasterous results.
At this stage, I see a potential Clinton-Perot deal shaping up, with Trump in the Perot role. The same types of “real” conservatives who voted for Perot are lining up to vote for Trump, with the same, tired, predictably disasterous results
Sounds like the GOP will be running another RINO
Only Liberal RINOs still blame Ross Perot for the Clinton wins. The GOP had weak liberal candidates, and, not a single credible analysis could find that Bush would have won in 92 had Perot not enetered
Dole had no chance in 96...only the most deluded Liberal RINO could think that Perot cost the GOP that election
The “Ross Perot helped Bill Clinton” Liberal whinefest is getting old. The GOP runs a strong conservative, they win, and Trump is not a factor.
The Liberal RINO wing of the GOP already making excuses for losing 2012
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