Posted on 01/20/2011 6:57:59 AM PST by SeekAndFind
The White House has to like the top-line results from the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, which shows Barack Obama getting an eight-point bounce over last month to 53% and 41% disapproving. It’s the first time in eight months that Obama has had a positive approval gap, since May’s 48/45. However, as the WSJ reports, the survey took place in the immediate aftermath of the Tucson shooting and memorial, which may make this rise transitory:
Surges in presidential popularity are common after a galvanizing national tragedy, said Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who co-directs the Journal/NBC News poll with Democrat Peter Hart. Bill Clinton saw a four-point jump after the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing. George W. Bush saw a surge after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.
But those bounces can be fleeting. Mr. Clinton’s faded in a month amid partisan arguments over the budget. Mr. Bush’s lasted as the nation shifted onto a war footing.
The poll’s methodology is rather interesting as well. NBC/WSJ’s pollster, Hart/McInturff, polled 1000 adults without restricting respondents to registered or likely voters. In fact, 19% of those responding claimed not to have voted in the 2008 elections, which is almost 1 in 5 and tends to make the predictive value of the poll rather weak. The D/R/I sample split is 31/21/39, a ten-point Democratic advantage when Gallup and Rasmussen both show the electorate evenly split or with Republicans taking a slight edge in affiliation. A 21% sample composition for Republicans is a gross underrepresentation. The previous poll has a 33/23/36 split.
On top of that, 42% of respondents say they voted for Obama, and 29% for John McCain, while 10% split evenly say they voted for someone else or can’t recall for which candidate they voted. Since Obama beat McCain by seven points in the popular vote, this appears to oversample Obama voters badly. Compare this sample to their previous poll, in which the split was 41/32 and 17% said they didn’t vote for anyone at all, and one can see where at least some of the bounce originates.
Otherwise, like the WaPo/ABC poll earlier this week, the bounce appears confined to personal considerations and not the issues. On the economy, Obama went from 42/54 to 45/50, which almost exactly fits the change in sample between the two polls. Oddly, the poll only asked about one other issue — Afghanistan. Obama’s numbers were virtually unchanged on the war.
Nothing in this poll points to long-term strengthening in Obama’s polling. Now that Congress has returned to work, Obama’s low polling on the issues will once again drive his overall job approval.
My LIBERAL teachers union brother sent me a email about this last night. I just told him “consider the source - NBC (National Barak Conspirators)”.
Weak analysis, I'd say. What does "likely voter" have to do with popularity?
There are still enough dimwits in the U.S. who think he's a "good president".
Independents are wishy washy, they are more destructive to us then the far left. jmho
Let’s have the Presidential election tomorrow and see just how high Obummer is in the ratings !
And a good chunk of them, Thank God, don't vote. That's why a likely voter screen matters.
People are unpredictable and polls are too.
>Independents are wishy washy, they are more destructive to us then the far left
Correct. They were the “geniuses” who voted for him in 2008 and for the GOP in 2010 as a “sorry we voted for the Kenyan Kommie Klown” gesture. F’ em.
NBC = General Electric + GE Loves China + Prince Al Waleed
WSJ = Mudoch + Fox + Prince Al Waleed
ALL of TV and ALL of Media support Hussein. At least Venezuela had a few media outlets who did not fawn over Chavez before they were shut down.
Do you all know that Obama backstopped GE’s worthless debt over a year ago because GE would have gone broke like AIG?
Keep watching TV because it supports this.
It only matters in trying to predict the outcome of an election. Popularity is simply that - popularity. If they are going to go that far they should have raised the question if the poll respondents were even U.S. citizens.
This is what propaganda looks like. Learn it well, and let's learn to counter it.
???
I don’t believe a word of it.
No one anywhere in my circle is more impressed with Barry.
If the Republicans cut the budget a lot; if they repeal most of Obamacare; and if they enforce the borders, I think Obama has a good shot at reelection.
If this is saying 5% can't remember who they voted for in 2008, either %5 percent of the population is suffering some sort of memory problem, they're lying, or this poll is just plain bogus.
Rasmussen shows Obama’s SD down to 36%, and SA-SD at only -7%, his best showing in 9 months.
I believe this movement is real. With a GOP controlled Congress, people feel less threatened by Obama. They are letting their guard down. There is much work to be done, and many debates which must be won, for 2012.
RE: I think Obama has a good shot at reelection.
My feelings exactly. If Obama wants to win in 2012, he can always learn from his predecessor, Clinton.
The man triangulated but never drove the budget agenda. This, together with the weak mainstream candidate : Bob “I-paid-my-dues-it’s-my-turn-now” Dole, and another Ross Perot candidacy all but ensured another Bubba term.
This time, we might have another Ross Perot in DONALD TRUMP waiting on the wings in 2012.
We were lucky, Clinton was too distracted with his Lewinsky scandal that he did not have much time to do any huge shift towards the left in his second term.
However, you can be certain that Obamaif he wins in 2012, knowing that this is his LAST TERM, will definitely work double time to shove his liberal agenda on America.
Is this the same data they cite Global Warming is a fact?
Pray for America
This is one of the most ridiculous polls I’ve ever seen.
Just curious, who’s this “Republican” involved with it?
On top of that, 42% of respondents say they voted for Obama, and 29% for John McCain, while 10% split evenly say they voted for someone else or can’t recall for which candidate they voted. Since Obama beat McCain by seven points in the popular vote, this appears to oversample Obama voters badly. Compare this sample to their previous poll, in which the split was 41/32 and 17% said they didn’t vote for anyone at all, and one can see where at least some of the bounce originates.
Why is this posted? It is absolute and total GARBAGE based on the internals and a waste of bandwidth.
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