Is the Electorate Moving Right? A response to Ruy Teixeira and Ed Kilgore.

The Weekly Standard ^ | November 22, 2010 | Jay Cost

[neverdem]

The 2010 midterm election saw a historically large percentage of voters claim to be conservative – 42 percent, compared to 32 percent in 2006 and 37 percent in 1994. Unsurprisingly, this has not escaped the notice of liberal analysts who promulgate the “Emerging Democratic Majority” thesis, which proposes that over time the electorate will naturally favor the Democrats. How do these analysts respond to this problematic (for them) trend?

Via a short essay for the Democratic Strategist, entitled “Is the Electorate Moving to the Right? Ruy Teixeira Says No,” we have their straightforward answer. The electorate has not moved in any significant fashion, and what we saw this November is nothing for liberals to worry about.

However, their reasoning on this line of inquiry is highly problematic. For starters, there is a subtle but significant change of subject from the title to the guts of the piece. Ed Kilgore (who introduces Teixeira’s argument) writes at the beginning:

It’s becoming more and more obvious that the big dispute at the heart of most arguments about the larger meaning of the 2010 midterms elections is whether the U.S. electorate is moving ideologically to the Right (sic) in a way that gives Republicans a natural majority in the future. And the very core of that dispute involves the behavior of self-identified independents, who obviously shifted towards the GOP between 2006-08 and 2010, and who seem to be exhibiting more conservative attitudes generally. [Emphasis Mine]

Ok, fair enough. My answer to that question is a pretty simple: The electorate has indeed moved to the right. The numbers are pretty stark...

[goldstategop]

The Democrats are concentrated in the big cities where they have a pool of reliable minority and professional voters to keep them in power there. But they don’t have a base in the rest of the country. And unless they can expand their base, they will remain in the minority for the foreseeable future.

[flowerplough]

Supposedly Churchill, but probably not:

Any young man who is not a liberal has no heart, any grown man who is not a conservative has no head.

[Iron Munro]

The Democrats are concentrated in the big cities where they have a pool of reliable minority and professional voters to keep them in power there.

Precisely!

Also, the cities are where most of the elites, the establishment, and media wonks work and/or reside which gives them a distorted view of the country. They think the cities are the center of the universe which accounts for their puzzlement whenever a democrat loses an election.

Most of them sit they sit on the political left and far left but think they are in the political center. From their viewpoint people who believe in rules, law & order, the US constitution and traditional American values are right wing radicals.

[RoadTest]

“Is the Electorate Moving Right? A response to Ruy Teixeira and Ed Kilgore. “

It seems that way because the framework is shifting radically leftward.

[mrmeyer]

...and what we saw this November is nothing for liberals to worry about...

Oh please keep believing this for the next two years!

[Vigilanteman]

The most remarkable thing about this analysis is the chart on page 2, which shows general stability in the proportion of Americans describing themselves as Conservative (40%), Moderate (40%) or Liberal (20%).

The former two fluctuate on either side of a 5% range, the later on a 3% range which, more or less, makes sense given their respective proportions.

At one time, we had a Democrat Party which was basically left-center and a GOP which was basically right-center.

When the far left took over the Democrat Party, the GOP moved center or even left-center to counter, leaving the conservatives on the fringes.

As the chart shows, the Liberals are the ones who should be driven to the fringes. The GOP could consistently win by appealing to the conservative core and, occasionally, drifting toward the center to pick up enough of the moderates, particularly on certain issues.

OTOH, the Democrats cannot consistently win by appealing solely to their Liberal base-- they need to take mostly moderate and, even occasionally, conservative positions. Their political advertising shows that they clearly understand this concept. Their governance shows, however, that they do not respect it.

[WilliamHouston]

The Emerging Democratic Majority is based on the theory that Democrats can hold the voters already in their camp. In reality, the expanding Hispanic electorate out West that has the Democrats so excited is offset by elderly Whites in the Midwest voting more Republican.

[WilliamHouston]

If the GOP really wants to see the “Emerging Democratic Majority” in action, they can take William Kristol’s advice and legalize millions of Democrats with an amnesty.

[kabar]

The author ignores the changing demographics fueled by immigration.

The U.S. adds one international migrant (net) every 36 seconds. Immigrants account for one in 8 U.S. residents, the highest level in more than 80 years. In 1970 it was one in 21; in 1980 it was one in 16; and in 1990 it was one in 13. In a decade, it will be one in 7, the highest level in our history. And by 2050, one in 5 residents of the U.S. will be foreign-born.

Currently, 1.6 million legal and illegal immigrants settle in the country each year; 350,000 immigrants leave each year, resulting in net immigration of 1.25 million. Since 1970, the U.S. population has increased from 203 million to 310 million, i.e., over 100 million. In the next 40 years, the population will increase by 130 million. Three-quarters of the increase in our population since 1970 and the projected increase will be the result of immigration. The U.S., the world’s third most populous nation, has the highest annual rate of population growth of any developed country in the world, i.e., 0.977% (2010 estimate), principally due to immigration.

87 percent of the 1.2 million legal immigrants entering annually are minorities as defined by the U.S. Government and almost all of the illegal aliens are minorities. By 2023 half of the children 18 and under in the U.S. will be classified as minorities and by 2042, half of the residents of this country will be minorities. Generally, immigrants and minorities vote predominantly for the Democrat Party. Hence, Democrats view immigration as a never-ending source of voters that will make them the permanent majority party.

Yes, the Dem voters are more concentrated in urban areas, but they will have an impact on statewide elections and Presidential elections due to their numbers. Detroit and Philadelphia are examples of how urban areas can determine the outcome of statewide elections. And Congressional districts are based on population, which could change the way districts are drawn.

The Dems are well on their way to becoming the permanent majority party. Immigration, Political Realignment, and the Demise of Republican Political Prospects

[kabar]

In reality, the expanding Hispanic electorate out West that has the Democrats so excited is offset by elderly Whites in the Midwest voting more Republican.

The elderly whites are dying out. Bureau of the Census--Meanwhile, the Hispanic population is projected to nearly triple, from 46.7 million to 132.8 million during the 2008-2050 period. Its share of the nation's total population is projected to double, from 15 percent to 30 percent. Thus, nearly one in three U.S. residents would be Hispanic.

[ripley]

“The elderly whites are dying out.”

That’s not a problem for progressives. They arrange for everyone to vote.

/s/

[crescen7]

Good article. I’ve found Jay Cost to be very informative on the electorate.

One thing I think he overlooks however is that many people are now defining themselves as “Conservatives” because the left has moved the definition of “liberal” so far to the left.

For example, at one time (not long ago) if one supported civil unions for gays and a “don’t ask don’t tell” policy for gays in the military - that was the “liberal position.”

now that’s the “Conservative” position.

So, even if you hold the exact same beliefs about “gays” that were trumpeted by sax playing perv Pres Clinton as “progressive” you are now a radical right winger.

Yes, there might be a shift in the electorate - but there’s been a bigger shift in where we draw the “center-line.”

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks neverdem, and Happy Thanksgiving!

...there is a subtle but significant change of subject from the title to the guts of the piece. Ed Kilgore (who introduces Teixeira's argument) writes at the beginning: "It's becoming more and more obvious that the big dispute at the heart of most arguments about the larger meaning of the 2010 midterms elections is whether the U.S. electorate is moving ideologically to the Right (sic) in a way that gives Republicans a natural majority in the future. And the very core of that dispute involves the behavior of self-identified independents, who obviously shifted towards the GOP between 2006-08 and 2010, and who seem to be exhibiting more conservative attitudes generally."

[mrsmel]

And this is why I cannot understand Republican politicians who support amnesty. I can only figure that they think it won’t happen fast enough to affect them, but still, why support it? My cynicism tells me that they are political opportunists who are pandering for the potential vote in the short term and d*mn the consequences to the party, conservatism, and America. But even if they are mere opportunists only considering the short term, what would it cost them to oppose amnesty, when most Americans oppose it? What is behind their intransigence on this, what’s in it for them, short term? They must know the ‘rats are going to get the immediate benefit of votes, as the party of “entitlements”. And I’ll never believe the Republicans who suport this are standing on principle-I mean, Lindsay Graham and John McCain? McCain, who gets whiplash, he jerks to the right so fast during elections?

[kabar]

Motivated by parochial self-interest, the pro-mass immigration, open borders, amnesty advocates have formed a powerful coalition including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, labor union leaders, the Catholic Church, ethnic and racial groups, “moderate” Republicans, and the Democrat Party. The common thread that unites these groups is power, money, and the prospect of increased constituencies, even at the expense of our long-term national interests and survival.

The Republican strategy on immigration should be based on the core principles of the party, i.e., national security, limited government, the rule of law and the Constitution, and individual responsibility. Immigration is an issue that cuts across partisan lines. There are plenty of independents and Reagan Democrats who are affected adversely by immigration and hold far different views than the Democrat political leadership, union bosses, religious leaders, etc. Republicans need to articulate their message better to tap into those constituencies. That said, pandering and outreach to minorities don’t work. Republicans lose when they try to play identity politics against the Democrats and it just reinforces their framing of the issue. Republicans must appeal to the interests of the individual voter with a universal message regardless of race, ethnicity, or gender.

The Democrats have used the rapidly changing demographics of this country, the product of immigration, to stampede many Republican politicians and elites to conclude that the party must “adapt or die” as Michael Barone stated on the issue of immigration. The leaders of extremist Hispanic ethnic groups trumpet their growing political power and cite the Bureau of Census projections that by 2050, one in 3 residents of this country will be Hispanic. The problem is that if the Republican Party does adapt to become more like the Democrat Party, it will die.

[rmlew]

The Democrats are concentrated in the big cities where they have a pool of reliable minority and professional voters to keep them in power there. But they don’t have a base in the rest of the country. And unless they can expand their base, they will remain in the minority for the foreseeable future.

Is that a joke? Have you not been paying attention to immigration rates and what happens to kids in Public Education and College? Here's a hint. The left is importing future voters by the millions. Meanwhile they are re-educating your children at your expense.