And we've added a couple of other items just for the fun of it: The PDF and Excel files include the following
Here are the links
All these files will print out on 4 sheets and look like this:
Election 2010 | |||||||||
KeyHouseRaces Master List | |||||||||
District | Seat | Democrat | Winner | Republican | Experts | District | |||
AL | 2 | Incumbent D | Bobby Bright | Martha Roby | Toss-Up | AL | 2 | ||
AR | 1 | Open D | Chad Causey | Rick Crawford | Leans R | AR | 1 | ||
AR | 2 | Open D | Joyce Elliott | Tim Griffin | Leans R | AR | 2 | ||
AZ | 1 | Incumbent D | Ann Kirkpatrick | Paul Gosar | Leans R | AZ | 1 | ||
AZ | 5 | Incumbent D | Harold Mitchell | David Schweikert | Toss-Up | AZ | 5 | ||
AZ | 7 | Incumbent D | Raúl Grijalva | Ruth McClung | Leans D | AZ | 7 | ||
AZ | 8 | Incumbent D | Gabrielle Giffords | Jesse Kelly | Toss-Up | AZ | 8 | ||
CA | 3 | Incumbent R | Ami Bera | Dan Lungren | Leans R | CA | 3 | ||
CA | 11 | Incumbent D | Jerry McNerney | David Harmer | Toss-Up | CA | 11 | ||
CA | 20 | Incumbent D | Jim Costa | Andy Vidak | Toss-Up | CA | 20 | ||
CA | 47 | Incumbent D | Loretta Sanchez | Van Tran | Leans D | CA | 47 | ||
CO | 3 | Incumbent D | John Salazar | Scott Tipton | Toss-Up | CO | 3 | ||
CO | 4 | Incumbent D | Betsy Markey | Cory Gardner | Leans R | CO | 4 | ||
CO | 7 | Incumbent D | Ed Perlmutter | Ryan Frazier | Likely D | CO | 7 | ||
CT | 4 | Incumbent D | Jim Himes | Dan Debicella | Leans D | CT | 4 | ||
CT | 5 | Incumbent D | Christopher Murphy | Sam Caligiuri | Leans D | CT | 5 | ||
DE | AL | Open R | John Carney | Glen Urquhart | Leans D | DE | AL | ||
FL | 2 | Incumbent D | Allen Boyd | Steve Southerland | Leans R | FL | 2 | ||
FL | 8 | Incumbent D | Alan Grayson | Daniel Webster | Leans R | FL | 8 | ||
FL | 22 | Incumbent D | Ron Klein | Allen West | Toss-Up | FL | 22 | ||
FL | 24 | Incumbent D | Suzanne Kosmas | Sandy Adams | Leans R | FL | 24 | ||
FL | 25 | Open R | Joe Garcia | David Rivera | Leans R | FL | 25 | ||
GA | 2 | Incumbent D | Sanford Bishop | Mike Keown | Toss-Up | GA | 2 | ||
GA | 8 | Incumbent D | Jim Marshall | Austin Scott | Leans R | GA | 8 | ||
HI | 1 | Incumbent R | Colleen Hanabusa | Charles Djou | Toss-Up | HI | 1 | ||
IA | 1 | Incumbent D | Bruce Braley | Ben Lange | Likely D | IA | 1 | ||
IA | 2 | Incumbent D | Dave Loebsack | Marianneette Miller Meeks | Likely D | IA | 2 | ||
IA | 3 | Incumbent D | Leonard Boswell | Brad Zaun | Leans D | IA | 3 | ||
ID | 1 | Incumbent D | Walter Minnick | Raul Labrador | Toss-Up | ID | 1 | ||
IL | 8 | Incumbent D | Melissa Bean | Joe Walsh | Likely D | IL | 8 | ||
IL | 10 | Open R | Dan Seals | Bob Dold | Toss-Up | IL | 10 | ||
IL | 11 | Incumbent D | Debbie Halvorson | Adam Kinzinger | Likely R | IL | 11 | ||
IL | 14 | Incumbent D | Bill Foster | Randy Hultgren | Toss-Up | IL | 14 | ||
IL | 17 | Incumbent D | Phil Hare | Bobby Schilling | Toss-Up | IL | 17 | ||
IN | 2 | Incumbent D | Joe Donnelly | Jackie Walorski | Leans D | IN | 2 | ||
IN | 8 | Open D | W. Trent Van Haaften | Dr. Larry Bucshon | Likely R | IN | 8 | ||
IN | 9 | Incumbent D | Baron Hill | Todd Young | Toss-Up | IN | 9 | ||
KS | 3 | Open D | Stephene Moore | Kevin Yoder | Likely R | KS | 3 | ||
KY | 6 | Incumbent D | Ben Chandler | Andy Barr | Leans D | KY | 6 | ||
LA | 2 | Incumbent R | Cedric Richmond | Joseph Cao | Leans D | LA | 2 | ||
LA | 3 | Open D | Ravi Sangisetty | Jeff Landry | Likely R | LA | 3 | ||
MA | 4 | Incumbent D | Barney Frank | Sean Bielat | Likely D | MA | 4 | ||
MA | 10 | Open D | William Keating | Jeff Perry | Toss-Up | MA | 10 | ||
MD | 1 | Incumbent D | Frank Kratovil | Andy Harris | Leans R | MD | 1 | ||
KeyHouseRaces Master List | |||||||||
District | Seat | Democrat | Winner | Republican | Experts | District | |||
ME | 1 | Incumbent D | Chellie Pingree | Dean Scontras | Likely D | ME | 1 | ||
MI | 1 | Open D | Gary McDowell | Dr. Daniel Benishek | Leans R | MI | 1 | ||
MI | 7 | Incumbent D | Mark Schauer | Tim Walberg | Toss-Up | MI | 7 | ||
MI | 9 | Incumbent D | Gary Peters | "Rocky" Raczowski | Leans D | MI | 9 | ||
MN | 1 | Incumbent D | Tim Walz | Randy Demmer | Leans D | MN | 1 | ||
MN | 8 | Incumbent D | Jim Oberstar | Chip Cravaack | Likely D | MN | 8 | ||
MO | 3 | Incumbent D | Russ Carnahan | Ed Martin | Likely D | MO | 3 | ||
MO | 4 | Incumbent D | Ike Skelton | Vicky Hartzler | Toss-Up | MO | 4 | ||
MS | 1 | Incumbent D | Travis Childers | Alan Nunnelee | Toss-Up | MS | 1 | ||
MS | 4 | Incumbent D | Gene Taylor | Steven Palazzo | Toss-Up | MS | 4 | ||
NC | 2 | Incumbent D | Bob Etheridge | Renee Ellmers | Leans D | NC | 2 | ||
NC | 7 | Incumbent D | Mike McIntyre | Ilario Pantano | Leans D | NC | 7 | ||
NC | 8 | Incumbent D | Larry Kissell | Harold Johnson | Toss-Up | NC | 8 | ||
NC | 11 | Incumbent D | Heath Shuler | Jeff Miller | Leans D | NC | 4 | ||
ND | AL | Incumbent D | Earl Pomeroy | Rick Berg | Toss-Up | ND | AL | ||
NH | 1 | Incumbent D | Carol Shea-Porter | Frank Guinta | Leans R | NH | 1 | ||
NH | 2 | Open D | Annie Kuster | Charlie Bass | Toss-Up | NH | 2 | ||
NJ | 3 | Incumbent D | John Adler | Jon Runyan | Toss-Up | NJ | 3 | ||
NM | 1 | Incumbent D | Martin Heinrich | Jon Barela | Leans D | NM | 1 | ||
NM | 2 | Incumbent D | Harry Teague | Steve Pearce | Leans R | NM | 2 | ||
NV | 3 | Incumbent D | Dina Titus | Dr. Joe Heck | Leans R | NV | 3 | ||
NY | 1 | Incumbent D | Tim Bishop | Randy Altschuler | Toss-Up | NY | 1 | ||
NY | 13 | Incumbent D | Mike McMahon | Mike Grimm | Leans D | NY | 13 | ||
NY | 19 | Incumbent D | John Hall | Nan Hayworth | Toss-Up | NY | 19 | ||
NY | 20 | Incumbent D | Scott Murphy | Chris Gibson | Toss-Up | NY | 20 | ||
NY | 22 | Incumbent D | Maurice Hinchey | George Phillips | Likely D | NY | 22 | ||
NY | 23 | Incumbent D | Bill Owens | Matt Doheny | Toss-Up | NY | 23 | ||
NY | 24 | Incumbent D | Mike Arcuri | Richard Hanna | Toss-Up | NY | 24 | ||
NY | 25 | Incumbent D | Dan Maffei | Ann Marie Buerkle | Leans D | NY | 25 | ||
NY | 29 | Open D | Mathew Zeller | Tom Reed | Likely R | NY | 29 | ||
OH | 1 | Incumbent D | Steve Driehaus | Steve Chabot | Leans R | OH | 1 | ||
OH | 6 | Incumbent D | Charlie Wilson | Bill Johnson | Toss-Up | OH | 6 | ||
OH | 13 | Incumbent D | Betty Sutton | Tom Ganley | Likely D | OH | 13 | ||
OH | 15 | Incumbent D | Mary Jo Kilroy | Steve Stivers | Likely R | OH | 15 | ||
OH | 16 | Incumbent D | John Boccieri | Jim Renacci | Leans R | OH | 16 | ||
OH | 18 | Incumbent D | Zach Space | Bob Gibbs | Toss-Up | OH | 18 | ||
OR | 5 | Incumbent D | Kurt Schrader | Scott Bruun | Toss-Up | OR | 5 | ||
PA | 3 | Incumbent D | Kathleen Dahlkemper | Mike Kelly | Leans R | PA | 3 | ||
PA | 4 | Incumbent D | Jason Altmire | Keith Rothfus | Likely D | PA | 4 | ||
PA | 7 | Open D | Bryan Lentz | Pat Meehan | Toss-Up | PA | 7 | ||
PA | 8 | Incumbent D | Patrick Murphy | Mike Fitzpatrick | Toss-Up | PA | 8 | ||
PA | 10 | Incumbent D | Chris Carney | Tom Marino | Toss-Up | PA | 10 | ||
PA | 11 | Incumbent D | Paul Kanjorski | Lou Barletta | Toss-Up | PA | 11 | ||
PA | 12 | Incumbent D | Mark Critz | Timothy Burns | Leans D | PA | 12 | ||
PA | 17 | Incumbent D | Tim Holden | David Argall | Likely D | PA | 17 | ||
RI | 1 | Open D | David Cicilline | John Loughlin | Leans D | RI | 1 | ||
KeyHouseRaces Master List | |||||||||
District | Seat | Democrat | Winner | Republican | Experts | District | |||
SC | 5 | Incumbent D | John Spratt Jr. | Mick Mulvaney | Leans R | SC | 5 | ||
SD | AL | Incumbent D | Stephanie Sandlin | Kristi Noem | Toss-Up | SD | AL | ||
TN | 4 | Incumbent D | Lincoln Davis | Dr. Scott Desjarlais | Toss-Up | TN | 4 | ||
TN | 6 | Open D | Brett Carter | Diane Black | Likely R | TN | 6 | ||
TN | 8 | Open D | Roy Herron | Stephen Fincher | Likely R | TN | 8 | ||
TX | 17 | Incumbent D | Chet Edwards | Bill Flores | Likely R | TX | 17 | ||
TX | 23 | Incumbent D | Ciro Rodriguez | Quico Canseco | Toss-Up | TX | 23 | ||
TX | 27 | Incumbent D | Solomon Ortiz | R. Blake Farenthold | Likely D | TX | 27 | ||
VA | 2 | Incumbent D | Glenn Nye | Scott Rigell | Leans R | VA | 2 | ||
VA | 5 | Incumbent D | Tom Perriello | Robert Hurt | Leans R | VA | 5 | ||
VA | 9 | Incumbent D | Rick Boucher | Morgan Griffith | Leans D | VA | 9 | ||
VA | 11 | Incumbent D | Gerald Connolly | Keith Fimian | Leans D | VA | 11 | ||
WA | 2 | Incumbent D | Rick Larsen | John Koster | Leans D | WA | 2 | ||
WA | 3 | Open D | Denny Heck | Jaime Herrera | Leans R | WA | 3 | ||
WA | 8 | Incumbent R | Suzan DelBene | Dave Reichert | Leans R | WA | 8 | ||
WI | 3 | Incumbent D | Ron Kind | Dan Kapanke | Leans D | WI | 3 | ||
WI | 7 | Open D | Julie Lassa | Sean Duffy | Leans R | WI | 7 | ||
WI | 8 | Incumbent D | Steve Kagen | Reid Ribble | Leans R | WI | 8 | ||
WV | 1 | Open D | Mike Oliverio | David B. McKinley | Toss-Up | WV | 1 | ||
WV | 3 | Incumbent D | Nick Rahall | "Spike" Maynard | Likely D | WV | 3 | ||
KeyHouseRaces Tier 2 List | |||||||||
District | Seat | Democrat | Winner | Republican | Experts | District | |||
CA | 18 | Incumbent D | Dennis Cardoza | Mike Berryhill | Likely D | CA | 18 | ||
KY | 3 | Incumbent D | Jon Yarmuth | Todd Lally | Likely D | KY | 3 | ||
ME | 2 | Incumbent D | Mike Michaud | Jason Levesque | Likely D | ME | 2 | ||
MI | 15 | Incumbent D | John Dingell | Rob Steele | Safe D | MI | 15 | ||
NJ | 12 | Incumbent D | Rush Holt | Scott Sipprelle | Likely D | NJ | 12 | ||
NM | 3 | Incumbent D | Ben Luján | Tom Mullins | Likely D | NM | 3 | ||
OR | 4 | Incumbent D | Peter DeFazio | Art Robinson | Likely D | OR | 4 | ||
WA | 9 | Incumbent D | Adam Smith | Dick Muri | Likely D | WA | 9 | ||
KeyHouseRaces Not Super-Safe Republican List | |||||||||
Seat | Democrat | Winner | Republican | Experts | District | ||||
MN | 6 | Incumbent R | Tarryl Clark | Michele Bachmann | Likely R | MN | 6 | ||
FL | 12 | Open R | Lori Edwards | Dennis Ross | Likely R | FL | 12 | ||
NE | 2 | Incumbent R | Tom White | Lee Terry | Likely R | NE | 2 | ||
PA | 6 | Incumbent R | Manan Trivedi | Jim Gerlach | Likely R | PA | 6 | ||
KeyHouseRaces Longshot List | |||||||||
District | Seat | Democrat | Winner | Republican | Experts | District | |||
CA | 51 | Incumbent D | Bob Filner | Nick Popaditch | Safe D | CA | 51 | ||
GA | 12 | Incumbent D | John Barrow | Ray McKinney | Safe D | GA | 12 | ||
IL | 9 | Incumbent D | Jan Schakowsky | Joel Pollak | Safe D | IL | 9 | ||
IN | 7 | Incumbent D | Andre Carson | Marvin Scott | Safe D | IN | 7 | ||
MA | 6 | Incumbent D | John Tierney | Bill Hudak | Safe D | MA | 6 | ||
MD | 2 | Incumbent D | Dutch Ruppersberger | Marcelo Cardarelli | Safe D | MD | 2 | ||
MD | 3 | Incumbent D | John Sarbanes | Jim Wilhelm | Safe D | MD | 3 | ||
MD | 5 | Incumbent D | Steny Hoyer | Charles Lollar | Safe D | MD | 5 | ||
MN | 7 | Incumbent D | Collin Peterson | Lee Byberg | Safe D | MN | 7 | ||
MS | 2 | Incumbent D | Bennnie Thompson | Bill Marcy | Safe D | MS | 2 | ||
NC | 4 | Incumbent D | David Price | B.J. Lawson | Safe D | NC | 4 | ||
NC | 13 | Incumbent D | Brad Miller | Bill Randall | Safe D | NC | 13 | ||
NJ | 6 | Incumbent D | Frank Pallone | Anna Little | Safe D | NJ | 6 | ||
NY | 2 | Incumbent D | Steve Israel | John Gomez | Safe D | NY | 2 | ||
NY | 9 | Incumbent D | Anthony Weiner | Bob Turner | Safe D | NY | 9 | ||
NY | 27 | Incumbent D | Brian Higgins | Lenny Roberto | Safe D | NY | 27 | ||
OH | 10 | Incumbent D | Dennis Kucinich | Peter Corrigan | Safe D | OH | 10 | ||
OK | 2 | Incumbent D | Dan Boren | Charles Thompson | Safe D | OK | 2 | ||
OR | 1 | Incumbent D | David Wu | Rob Cornilles | Safe D | OR | 1 | ||
PA | 13 | Incumbent D | Allyson Schwartz | Dee Adcock | Safe D | PA | 13 | ||
TN | 5 | Incumbent D | Jim Cooper | David Hall | Safe D | TN | 5 | ||
TX | 25 | Incumbent D | Lloyd Doggett | Donna Campbell | Safe D | TX | 25 | ||
TX | 28 | Incumbent D | Henry Cuellar | Bryan Underwood | Safe D | TX | 28 | ||
TX | 29 | Incumbent D | Gene Green | Roy Morales | Safe D | TX | 29 | ||
UT | 2 | Incumbent D | Jom Matheson | Morgan Philpot | Safe D | UT | 2 | ||
KeyHouseRaces Nobody Saw This One Coming List | |||||||||
District | Seat | Democrat | Winner | Republican | Experts | District | |||
"Although we have small subsamples in the very competitive 1st, 7th and 9th Congressional District races, we see evidence that the Republicans are leading in two races and are trailing by a small margin in the other," Mitchell continued. 1st district: Democrat Gary McDowell leads Republican Dan Benishek by 3 percent (48-45). 7th district: Republican Tim Walberg leads Democratic Congressman Mark Schauer by 4 percent (47-43). 9th district: Republican Rocky Razckowski leads Democratic Congressman Gary Peters by 12% (52%-40%). "Our polling has consistently shown Raczkowski with a much larger lead than other pollsters. This is also a small sub-sample of only 156 voters with a Margin of Error of + or - 7.85 percent," Mitchell said.
Utah’s 2nd is in play? Hmmmm I certainly hope.
You have done a great job...this is like a bingo card for the dems getting their butts handed to them. I am going to have fun keeping score tomorrow night thanks to your chart. Many thanks and Happy Electioneve!
Mark for tracking. Thank you!
CA-20 should be changed to Leans-R. Vidak (R) now has a 52-42 lead over Costa (D-inc.) according to SurveyUSA on 10/24.
Great post..Thank you. Just put in on FB
Thankyou for all your hard work and diligence this election season. I love the templates!
ME-1 should be changed from Likely-D to Toss-Up. Scontras (R) has a 45-41 lead over Pingree (D-inc.) on 10/28.
Thanks....I’m printing it for posting on the wall tomorrow night and keeping track!
Thanks, IP.
Save for tomorrow night.
This week, the polls cover 76% of the 112 races being tracked. 85 polls are being used out of 99 that were captured, for a poll utilization of 86%.
Using the expert ratings above and recent poll data, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
Week | GOP House Seats P10 |
GOP House Seats EV |
GOP House Seats P90 |
Probability of 218 |
GOP Gain |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
31-Jul-10 | 207 | 211.93 | 217 | 8.43% | 33 |
07-Aug-10 | 205 | 210.66 | 216 | 4.51% | 32 |
14-Aug-10 | 205 | 210.56 | 216 | 4.44% | 32 |
21-Aug-10 | 208 | 212.88 | 218 | 11.83% | 34 |
28-Aug-10 | 211 | 216.78 | 220 | 42.58% | 38 |
04-Sep-10 | 213 | 217.53 | 222 | 50.40% | 39 |
11-Sep-10 | 214 | 219.05 | 224 | 66.39% | 40 |
18-Sep-10 | 214 | 218.54 | 223 | 62.30% | 40 |
25-Sep-10 | 214 | 218.46 | 223 | 61.17% | 39 |
02-Oct-10 | 217 | 220.83 | 225 | 83.86% | 42 |
09-Oct-10 | 219 | 223.48 | 228 | 96.15% | 44 |
16-Oct-10 | 222 | 225.93 | 230 | 99.33% | 47 |
23-Oct-10 | 224 | 228.38 | 233 | 99.94% | 49 |
30-Oct-10 | 227 | 231.29 | 236 | 100.00% | 52 |
01-Nov-10 | 228 | 233.08 | 238 | 100.00% | 54 |
This makes my prediction 49-59 (54).
The maps.
-PJ
Everyone needs to vote tomorrow and make sure all your friends and family do as well. On Chicago late news, the Dem politicians were all glowing that the races were close and they would find the votes. Anything polling at 4% or less is vulnerable to vote fraud. We must SWAMP the polls!
TX 17
Goodbye Chet Edwards!
This has just been awesome work out of you for the past half year (? more?).
We all owe you a debt of gratitude!
Let’s close the deal folks!!!