KeyHouseRaces - 11/1 FINAL UPDATE - We added ME-02 and UT-02 - 112 Seats in Play

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 1 November 2010 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

THIS IS THE FINAL UPDATE OF THE KEY HOUSE RACES MASTER LIST

So of course we just had to add two more Vulnerable Dems: ME-02 and UT-02.

So we now have 112 seats in play - 105 Dem seats and 7 for the Republicans. And only 4 of those GOP seats are looking vulnerable at this point.

Freeper PJ Too has been  generating weekly Pickup Projections based on the KeyHouseRace Master List and the latest polls. PJ has two ways of modeling his pickup projection: Expert Ratings Based and Poll Based. We have put links to both models on the Home Page at KHR. Note that these projections are updated each Saturday afternoon.

We've also been posting the KHR Pickup Projection and the projections by several other sources on the Home Page at KHR. These projections have been moving up steadily. A good example of this is Real Clear Poliltics. Two weeks ago RCP was predicting a pickup of 53 seats. A week ago their estimate was 59. Last Saturday their estimate was 65 seats. Today RCP predicts a pickup of 67 seats. That's a very nice trend.

Here is the current summary:

 

And this was the biggest week ever on KHR for upgrades by our "Experts". In the Saturday Update we had 137 updates that were favorable to the GOP and 25 for the Dems. Over the weekend and on this Monday before the election there were additional updates from RCP, EP, Cook and CQ Politics and so we have new totals for the updates referenced to 9 days ago:

Experts: GOP 162 and Dems 27

And also worth noting:

Three Weeks of Expert Updates: GOP 312 and Dems 45

Our index improved to +.043 from last weeks -.068 even with the addition of 6 new Dem seats in the last 9 days which skews the index in favor of the Dems.

SO OUR INDEX ENDED UP IN POSITIVE TERRITORY. What does that mean? It means that the assessment of our Experts is that the full list of 112 seats in play (105 Dems and 7 Republicans) tilts GOP on the average. We don't like to brag but we pointed out months ago that if our index reached positive values then we were looking at a huge Republican victory in November and that's the way  it looks right now.

Some statistics about the Master List:

• This week we have 70 Dem seats that rank no better than Toss-Up Leaning D. That's up from 68 two days ago, 63 a week ago and 61 two weeks ago.
• 95 Dem seats are rated no better (for the Dems) than Leans D. That's up from 89 on Saturday, 83 a week ago and 78 two weeks ago.
• Only 10 of the 105 Dem seats look relatively safe with a Likely D average.

[Norman Bates]

CA-20 should be changed to Leans-R. Vidak (R) now has a 52-42 lead over Costa (D-inc.) according to SurveyUSA on 10/24.

[blueyon]

Great post..Thank you. Just put in on FB

[jeltz25]

I doubt Lieberman switches parties. Although, the dem base can’t stand him, he doesn’t really like Obama, so who knows. I don’t know how it would affect him in reelection in 2012. Although he’s getting up there, he may not run for re-election, switch parties, and then announce his retirement. I do think he could probably win running as a republican in 2012, though.

That said, if he does switch parties, it will be because of one man. John McCain. I know conservatives love to bash McCain. But if he can get Lieberman to switch parties he’ll have done a really good thing.

If the Senate ends up 50-50, he won’t even have to swicth parties. He can remain a Democrat, but he’ll have all the power.

I think the Senate could end up being better than expected. With such strong #s in the House I wouldn’t be surprised to see things carry over.

Surprised at Meg Whitman in CA. Jerry Brown will be 73 next year. The guy is a retread from the 70s. Whitman is everything the media says a candidate should be, everything the GOP should be looking for. Princeton degree with honors. Harvard MBA. Business and job creating experience that puts Brown to shame. One of the most most successful business executives of this generation. Moderate in social views, not a culture warrior on abortion or gay marriage, not a demagogue on immigration. Tons of money. Everything.

And still seems to be struggling.

[clyde260]

Thankyou for all your hard work and diligence this election season. I love the templates!

[Norman Bates]

ME-1 should be changed from Likely-D to Toss-Up. Scontras (R) has a 45-41 lead over Pingree (D-inc.) on 10/28.

[1035rep]

Great job! Thanks for putting this together for us.

[goodnesswins]

Thanks....I’m printing it for posting on the wall tomorrow night and keeping track!

[potlatch]

Excellent work, we’re getting down to the nitty gritty now.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks InterceptPoint.

[Personal Responsibility]

Whitman is everything the media says a candidate should be, everything the GOP should be looking for. Princeton degree with honors. Harvard MBA. Business and job creating experience that puts Brown to shame. One of the most most successful business executives of this generation. Moderate in social views, not a culture warrior on abortion or gay marriage, not a demagogue on immigration. Tons of money. Everything.

And still seems to be struggling.

---

It’s because she’s the same political party as the massive failure of an incumbent leaving office. If Schwarzenegger were a D, Whitman would be up 10 points.

[jch10]

Thanks, IP.

Save for tomorrow night.

[SharpRightTurn]

Excellent work, IP.

This will be a handy scorecard for tomorrow night.

On to victory!

[TexasGreg]

You’re forgetting that Lieberman isn’t a Democrat any more, he’s technically an “Independent” though his self-label is “Independent Democrat.” Remember ... in 2006 the Dems refused to re-nominate him, so he ran as an Independent and won. He still caucuses with the Democrats and, as a thanks to him for caucusing with them, they let him serve as Chair of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.

If we end up with a 50/50 split (or, rather, 50/49/1 split) in the Senate, I can see Lieberman agreeing to caucus with the Republicans rather than the Democrats, thus throwing control to the Republicans, in return for the Republicans letting him keep his Senate Chairmanship. I don’t foresee him switching parties ... there’s no reason for him to do so if agreements can be reached in return for him caucusing with the Republicans.

[Political Junkie Too]

Below is a model that uses the most recent poll instead of the expert assessment, when there is one. I "expire" the poll if it is greater than 60 days old and revert back to the expert assessment until a new poll is taken. If the trend is moving downward, I suspect it is because a poll expired and the expert asssessment is lagging public opinion.

This week, the polls cover 76% of the 112 races being tracked. 85 polls are being used out of 99 that were captured, for a poll utilization of 86%.

Using the expert ratings above and recent poll data, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP House Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP House Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP House Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 218” – The probability associated with value 218 (the House majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (179), rounded normally.

Week	GOP House Seats P10	GOP House Seats EV	GOP House Seats P90	Probability of 218	GOP Gain
31-Jul-10	207	211.93	217	8.43%	33
07-Aug-10	205	210.66	216	4.51%	32
14-Aug-10	205	210.56	216	4.44%	32
21-Aug-10	208	212.88	218	11.83%	34
28-Aug-10	211	216.78	220	42.58%	38
04-Sep-10	213	217.53	222	50.40%	39
11-Sep-10	214	219.05	224	66.39%	40
18-Sep-10	214	218.54	223	62.30%	40
25-Sep-10	214	218.46	223	61.17%	39
02-Oct-10	217	220.83	225	83.86%	42
09-Oct-10	219	223.48	228	96.15%	44
16-Oct-10	222	225.93	230	99.33%	47
23-Oct-10	224	228.38	233	99.94%	49
30-Oct-10	227	231.29	236	100.00%	52
01-Nov-10	228	233.08	238	100.00%	54

This makes my prediction 49-59 (54).

The maps.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Updated to include latest added districts.

-PJ

[EDINVA]

Thanks for all your extraordinary work on this during this election cycle. It’s been wonderful to follow. Lets hope the higher projections are true.

[firebrand]

I love your “No One Saw This One Coming” List with all the blank boxes.

[Fu-fu2]

Everyone needs to vote tomorrow and make sure all your friends and family do as well. On Chicago late news, the Dem politicians were all glowing that the races were close and they would find the votes. Anything polling at 4% or less is vulnerable to vote fraud. We must SWAMP the polls!

[smokingfrog]

TX 17

Goodbye Chet Edwards!

[fortheDeclaration]

100 seats-what a sweet thing that would be!