KeyHouseRaces - 11/1 FINAL UPDATE - We added ME-02 and UT-02 - 112 Seats in Play

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 1 November 2010 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

THIS IS THE FINAL UPDATE OF THE KEY HOUSE RACES MASTER LIST

So of course we just had to add two more Vulnerable Dems: ME-02 and UT-02.

So we now have 112 seats in play - 105 Dem seats and 7 for the Republicans. And only 4 of those GOP seats are looking vulnerable at this point.

Freeper PJ Too has been  generating weekly Pickup Projections based on the KeyHouseRace Master List and the latest polls. PJ has two ways of modeling his pickup projection: Expert Ratings Based and Poll Based. We have put links to both models on the Home Page at KHR. Note that these projections are updated each Saturday afternoon.

We've also been posting the KHR Pickup Projection and the projections by several other sources on the Home Page at KHR. These projections have been moving up steadily. A good example of this is Real Clear Poliltics. Two weeks ago RCP was predicting a pickup of 53 seats. A week ago their estimate was 59. Last Saturday their estimate was 65 seats. Today RCP predicts a pickup of 67 seats. That's a very nice trend.

Here is the current summary:

 

And this was the biggest week ever on KHR for upgrades by our "Experts". In the Saturday Update we had 137 updates that were favorable to the GOP and 25 for the Dems. Over the weekend and on this Monday before the election there were additional updates from RCP, EP, Cook and CQ Politics and so we have new totals for the updates referenced to 9 days ago:

Experts: GOP 162 and Dems 27

And also worth noting:

Three Weeks of Expert Updates: GOP 312 and Dems 45

Our index improved to +.043 from last weeks -.068 even with the addition of 6 new Dem seats in the last 9 days which skews the index in favor of the Dems.

SO OUR INDEX ENDED UP IN POSITIVE TERRITORY. What does that mean? It means that the assessment of our Experts is that the full list of 112 seats in play (105 Dems and 7 Republicans) tilts GOP on the average. We don't like to brag but we pointed out months ago that if our index reached positive values then we were looking at a huge Republican victory in November and that's the way  it looks right now.

Some statistics about the Master List:

• This week we have 70 Dem seats that rank no better than Toss-Up Leaning D. That's up from 68 two days ago, 63 a week ago and 61 two weeks ago.
• 95 Dem seats are rated no better (for the Dems) than Leans D. That's up from 89 on Saturday, 83 a week ago and 78 two weeks ago.
• Only 10 of the 105 Dem seats look relatively safe with a Likely D average.

[InterceptPoint]

To make it easy to keep track of the Key House Races on our Master List as the polls close and the election results come in we have generated downloadable print-ready PDF and Excel versions of our Master List.

And we've added a couple of other items just for the fun of it: The PDF and Excel files include the following

• The Master List in District Order
• The Tier 2 List of races that didn't quite make it on to the Master List
• The 4 Not Super-Safe Republican races
• The KeyHouseRaces Longshot List - Races picked by some knowledgeable Freepers that might be big upsets
• The KeyHouseRaces Nobody Saw This One Coming List for those races that aren't on any of our lists - just write them in yourself

Here are the links

• PDF File

• Excel 2003 File

• Excel 2007 File

All these files will print out on 4 sheets and look like this:

 

 

Election 2010
KeyHouseRaces Master List
District		Seat	Democrat	Winner		Republican	Experts	District
AL	2	Incumbent D	Bobby Bright			Martha Roby	Toss-Up	AL	2
AR	1	Open D	Chad Causey			Rick Crawford	Leans R	AR	1
AR	2	Open D	Joyce Elliott			Tim Griffin	Leans R	AR	2
AZ	1	Incumbent D	Ann Kirkpatrick			Paul Gosar	Leans R	AZ	1
AZ	5	Incumbent D	Harold Mitchell			David Schweikert	Toss-Up	AZ	5
AZ	7	Incumbent D	Raúl Grijalva			Ruth McClung	Leans D	AZ	7
AZ	8	Incumbent D	Gabrielle Giffords			Jesse Kelly	Toss-Up	AZ	8
CA	3	Incumbent R	Ami Bera			Dan Lungren	Leans R	CA	3
CA	11	Incumbent D	Jerry McNerney			David Harmer	Toss-Up	CA	11
CA	20	Incumbent D	Jim Costa			Andy Vidak	Toss-Up	CA	20
CA	47	Incumbent D	Loretta Sanchez			Van Tran	Leans D	CA	47
CO	3	Incumbent D	John Salazar			Scott Tipton	Toss-Up	CO	3
CO	4	Incumbent D	Betsy Markey			Cory Gardner	Leans R	CO	4
CO	7	Incumbent D	Ed Perlmutter			Ryan Frazier	Likely D	CO	7
CT	4	Incumbent D	Jim Himes			Dan Debicella	Leans D	CT	4
CT	5	Incumbent D	Christopher Murphy			Sam Caligiuri	Leans D	CT	5
DE	AL	Open R	John Carney			Glen Urquhart	Leans D	DE	AL
FL	2	Incumbent D	Allen Boyd			Steve Southerland	Leans R	FL	2
FL	8	Incumbent D	Alan Grayson			Daniel Webster	Leans R	FL	8
FL	22	Incumbent D	Ron Klein			Allen West	Toss-Up	FL	22
FL	24	Incumbent D	Suzanne Kosmas			Sandy Adams	Leans R	FL	24
FL	25	Open R	Joe Garcia			David Rivera	Leans R	FL	25
GA	2	Incumbent D	Sanford Bishop			Mike Keown	Toss-Up	GA	2
GA	8	Incumbent D	Jim Marshall			Austin Scott	Leans R	GA	8
HI	1	Incumbent R	Colleen Hanabusa			Charles Djou	Toss-Up	HI	1
IA	1	Incumbent D	Bruce Braley			Ben Lange	Likely D	IA	1
IA	2	Incumbent D	Dave Loebsack			Marianneette Miller Meeks	Likely D	IA	2
IA	3	Incumbent D	Leonard Boswell			Brad Zaun	Leans D	IA	3
ID	1	Incumbent D	Walter Minnick			Raul Labrador	Toss-Up	ID	1
IL	8	Incumbent D	Melissa Bean			Joe Walsh	Likely D	IL	8
IL	10	Open R	Dan Seals			Bob Dold	Toss-Up	IL	10
IL	11	Incumbent D	Debbie Halvorson			Adam Kinzinger	Likely R	IL	11
IL	14	Incumbent D	Bill Foster			Randy Hultgren	Toss-Up	IL	14
IL	17	Incumbent D	Phil Hare			Bobby Schilling	Toss-Up	IL	17
IN	2	Incumbent D	Joe Donnelly			Jackie Walorski	Leans D	IN	2
IN	8	Open D	W. Trent Van Haaften			Dr. Larry Bucshon	Likely R	IN	8
IN	9	Incumbent D	Baron Hill			Todd Young	Toss-Up	IN	9
KS	3	Open D	Stephene Moore			Kevin Yoder	Likely R	KS	3
KY	6	Incumbent D	Ben Chandler			Andy Barr	Leans D	KY	6
LA	2	Incumbent R	Cedric Richmond			Joseph Cao	Leans D	LA	2
LA	3	Open D	Ravi Sangisetty			Jeff Landry	Likely R	LA	3
MA	4	Incumbent D	Barney Frank			Sean Bielat	Likely D	MA	4
MA	10	Open D	William Keating			Jeff Perry	Toss-Up	MA	10
MD	1	Incumbent D	Frank Kratovil			Andy Harris	Leans R	MD	1
KeyHouseRaces Master List
District		Seat	Democrat	Winner		Republican	Experts	District
ME	1	Incumbent D	Chellie Pingree			Dean Scontras	Likely D	ME	1
MI	1	Open D	Gary McDowell			Dr. Daniel Benishek	Leans R	MI	1
MI	7	Incumbent D	Mark Schauer			Tim Walberg	Toss-Up	MI	7
MI	9	Incumbent D	Gary Peters			"Rocky" Raczowski	Leans D	MI	9
MN	1	Incumbent D	Tim Walz			Randy Demmer	Leans D	MN	1
MN	8	Incumbent D	Jim Oberstar			Chip Cravaack	Likely D	MN	8
MO	3	Incumbent D	Russ Carnahan			Ed Martin	Likely D	MO	3
MO	4	Incumbent D	Ike Skelton			Vicky Hartzler	Toss-Up	MO	4
MS	1	Incumbent D	Travis Childers			Alan Nunnelee	Toss-Up	MS	1
MS	4	Incumbent D	Gene Taylor			Steven Palazzo	Toss-Up	MS	4
NC	2	Incumbent D	Bob Etheridge			Renee Ellmers	Leans D	NC	2
NC	7	Incumbent D	Mike McIntyre			Ilario Pantano	Leans D	NC	7
NC	8	Incumbent D	Larry Kissell			Harold Johnson	Toss-Up	NC	8
NC	11	Incumbent D	Heath Shuler			Jeff Miller	Leans D	NC	4
ND	AL	Incumbent D	Earl Pomeroy			Rick Berg	Toss-Up	ND	AL
NH	1	Incumbent D	Carol Shea-Porter			Frank Guinta	Leans R	NH	1
NH	2	Open D	Annie Kuster			Charlie Bass	Toss-Up	NH	2
NJ	3	Incumbent D	John Adler			Jon Runyan	Toss-Up	NJ	3
NM	1	Incumbent D	Martin Heinrich			Jon Barela	Leans D	NM	1
NM	2	Incumbent D	Harry Teague			Steve Pearce	Leans R	NM	2
NV	3	Incumbent D	Dina Titus			Dr. Joe Heck	Leans R	NV	3
NY	1	Incumbent D	Tim Bishop			Randy Altschuler	Toss-Up	NY	1
NY	13	Incumbent D	Mike McMahon			Mike Grimm	Leans D	NY	13
NY	19	Incumbent D	John Hall			Nan Hayworth	Toss-Up	NY	19
NY	20	Incumbent D	Scott Murphy			Chris Gibson	Toss-Up	NY	20
NY	22	Incumbent D	Maurice Hinchey			George Phillips	Likely D	NY	22
NY	23	Incumbent D	Bill Owens			Matt Doheny	Toss-Up	NY	23
NY	24	Incumbent D	Mike Arcuri			Richard Hanna	Toss-Up	NY	24
NY	25	Incumbent D	Dan Maffei			Ann Marie Buerkle	Leans D	NY	25
NY	29	Open D	Mathew Zeller			Tom Reed	Likely R	NY	29
OH	1	Incumbent D	Steve Driehaus			Steve Chabot	Leans R	OH	1
OH	6	Incumbent D	Charlie Wilson			Bill Johnson	Toss-Up	OH	6
OH	13	Incumbent D	Betty Sutton			Tom Ganley	Likely D	OH	13
OH	15	Incumbent D	Mary Jo Kilroy			Steve Stivers	Likely R	OH	15
OH	16	Incumbent D	John Boccieri			Jim Renacci	Leans R	OH	16
OH	18	Incumbent D	Zach Space			Bob Gibbs	Toss-Up	OH	18
OR	5	Incumbent D	Kurt Schrader			Scott Bruun	Toss-Up	OR	5
PA	3	Incumbent D	Kathleen Dahlkemper			Mike Kelly	Leans R	PA	3
PA	4	Incumbent D	Jason Altmire			Keith Rothfus	Likely D	PA	4
PA	7	Open D	Bryan Lentz			Pat Meehan	Toss-Up	PA	7
PA	8	Incumbent D	Patrick Murphy			Mike Fitzpatrick	Toss-Up	PA	8
PA	10	Incumbent D	Chris Carney			Tom Marino	Toss-Up	PA	10
PA	11	Incumbent D	Paul Kanjorski			Lou Barletta	Toss-Up	PA	11
PA	12	Incumbent D	Mark Critz			Timothy Burns	Leans D	PA	12
PA	17	Incumbent D	Tim Holden			David Argall	Likely D	PA	17
RI	1	Open D	David Cicilline			John Loughlin	Leans D	RI	1
KeyHouseRaces Master List
District		Seat	Democrat	Winner		Republican	Experts	District
SC	5	Incumbent D	John Spratt Jr.			Mick Mulvaney	Leans R	SC	5
SD	AL	Incumbent D	Stephanie Sandlin			Kristi Noem	Toss-Up	SD	AL
TN	4	Incumbent D	Lincoln Davis			Dr. Scott Desjarlais	Toss-Up	TN	4
TN	6	Open D	Brett Carter			Diane Black	Likely R	TN	6
TN	8	Open D	Roy Herron			Stephen Fincher	Likely R	TN	8
TX	17	Incumbent D	Chet Edwards			Bill Flores	Likely R	TX	17
TX	23	Incumbent D	Ciro Rodriguez			Quico Canseco	Toss-Up	TX	23
TX	27	Incumbent D	Solomon Ortiz			R. Blake Farenthold	Likely D	TX	27
VA	2	Incumbent D	Glenn Nye			Scott Rigell	Leans R	VA	2
VA	5	Incumbent D	Tom Perriello			Robert Hurt	Leans R	VA	5
VA	9	Incumbent D	Rick Boucher			Morgan Griffith	Leans D	VA	9
VA	11	Incumbent D	Gerald Connolly			Keith Fimian	Leans D	VA	11
WA	2	Incumbent D	Rick Larsen			John Koster	Leans D	WA	2
WA	3	Open D	Denny Heck			Jaime Herrera	Leans R	WA	3
WA	8	Incumbent R	Suzan DelBene			Dave Reichert	Leans R	WA	8
WI	3	Incumbent D	Ron Kind			Dan Kapanke	Leans D	WI	3
WI	7	Open D	Julie Lassa			Sean Duffy	Leans R	WI	7
WI	8	Incumbent D	Steve Kagen			Reid Ribble	Leans R	WI	8
WV	1	Open D	Mike Oliverio			David B. McKinley	Toss-Up	WV	1
WV	3	Incumbent D	Nick Rahall			"Spike" Maynard	Likely D	WV	3
KeyHouseRaces Tier 2 List
District		Seat	Democrat	Winner		Republican	Experts	District
CA	18	Incumbent D	Dennis Cardoza			Mike Berryhill	Likely D	CA	18
KY	3	Incumbent D	Jon Yarmuth			Todd Lally	Likely D	KY	3
ME	2	Incumbent D	Mike Michaud			Jason Levesque	Likely D	ME	2
MI	15	Incumbent D	John Dingell			Rob Steele	Safe D	MI	15
NJ	12	Incumbent D	Rush Holt			Scott Sipprelle	Likely D	NJ	12
NM	3	Incumbent D	Ben Luján			Tom Mullins	Likely D	NM	3
OR	4	Incumbent D	Peter DeFazio			Art Robinson	Likely D	OR	4
WA	9	Incumbent D	Adam Smith			Dick Muri	Likely D	WA	9
KeyHouseRaces Not Super-Safe Republican List
		Seat	Democrat	Winner		Republican	Experts	District
MN	6	Incumbent R	Tarryl Clark			Michele Bachmann	Likely R	MN	6
FL	12	Open R	Lori Edwards			Dennis Ross	Likely R	FL	12
NE	2	Incumbent R	Tom White			Lee Terry	Likely R	NE	2
PA	6	Incumbent R	Manan Trivedi			Jim Gerlach	Likely R	PA	6
KeyHouseRaces Longshot List
District		Seat	Democrat	Winner		Republican	Experts	District
CA	51	Incumbent D	Bob Filner			Nick Popaditch	Safe D	CA	51
GA	12	Incumbent D	John Barrow			Ray McKinney	Safe D	GA	12
IL	9	Incumbent D	Jan Schakowsky			Joel Pollak	Safe D	IL	9
IN	7	Incumbent D	Andre Carson			Marvin Scott	Safe D	IN	7
MA	6	Incumbent D	John Tierney			Bill Hudak	Safe D	MA	6
MD	2	Incumbent D	Dutch Ruppersberger			Marcelo Cardarelli	Safe D	MD	2
MD	3	Incumbent D	John Sarbanes			Jim Wilhelm	Safe D	MD	3
MD	5	Incumbent D	Steny Hoyer			Charles Lollar	Safe D	MD	5
MN	7	Incumbent D	Collin Peterson			Lee Byberg	Safe D	MN	7
MS	2	Incumbent D	Bennnie Thompson			Bill Marcy	Safe D	MS	2
NC	4	Incumbent D	David Price			B.J. Lawson	Safe D	NC	4
NC	13	Incumbent D	Brad Miller			Bill Randall	Safe D	NC	13
NJ	6	Incumbent D	Frank Pallone			Anna Little	Safe D	NJ	6
NY	2	Incumbent D	Steve Israel			John Gomez	Safe D	NY	2
NY	9	Incumbent D	Anthony Weiner			Bob Turner	Safe D	NY	9
NY	27	Incumbent D	Brian Higgins			Lenny Roberto	Safe D	NY	27
OH	10	Incumbent D	Dennis Kucinich			Peter Corrigan	Safe D	OH	10
OK	2	Incumbent D	Dan Boren			Charles Thompson	Safe D	OK	2
OR	1	Incumbent D	David Wu			Rob Cornilles	Safe D	OR	1
PA	13	Incumbent D	Allyson Schwartz			Dee Adcock	Safe D	PA	13
TN	5	Incumbent D	Jim Cooper			David Hall	Safe D	TN	5
TX	25	Incumbent D	Lloyd Doggett			Donna Campbell	Safe D	TX	25
TX	28	Incumbent D	Henry Cuellar			Bryan Underwood	Safe D	TX	28
TX	29	Incumbent D	Gene Green			Roy Morales	Safe D	TX	29
UT	2	Incumbent D	Jom Matheson			Morgan Philpot	Safe D	UT	2
KeyHouseRaces Nobody Saw This One Coming List
District		Seat	Democrat	Winner		Republican	Experts	District

[InterceptPoint]

THE FINAL UPDATE TO THE KEY HOUSE RACES MASTER LIST - MONDAY 1 NOVEMBER 2010.

[Iowa Granny]

bump for later study

[scooby321]

What is with Intrade Democrats in Senate tanking. Down to 35%. ( It could be Soros for his reason.) http://www.intrade.com/

[muawiyah]

Great ~ and with the Generic Generic up to 55% R to 40% D, this list is going to INCREASE before it decreases.

I don't recall anyone ever having a 15% difference the day before an election.

[Darren McCarty]

Here's the latest Mitchell Poll, although high margin for error in congressional races

"Although we have small subsamples in the very competitive 1st, 7th and 9th Congressional District races, we see evidence that the Republicans are leading in two races and are trailing by a small margin in the other," Mitchell continued. 1st district: Democrat Gary McDowell leads Republican Dan Benishek by 3 percent (48-45). 7th district: Republican Tim Walberg leads Democratic Congressman Mark Schauer by 4 percent (47-43). 9th district: Republican Rocky Razckowski leads Democratic Congressman Gary Peters by 12% (52%-40%). "Our polling has consistently shown Raczkowski with a much larger lead than other pollsters. This is also a small sub-sample of only 156 voters with a Margin of Error of + or - 7.85 percent," Mitchell said.

[surroundedbyblue]

Question for all those WAY more in the loop than I am: how is Star Parker doing in Cali? I can’t find any poll numbers for her & I was just curious.

[GailA]

Steve Cohen US 9th District Tn so Cocky he Closes Campaign HQ
Cohen tells voters “I don’t need you”

[cookcounty]

So Tim Scott in SC-1 is out of the picture? Not even a long-shot??????

And Ryan Frazier (+1 in latest poll) is “likely Democratic’?

Are you kidding me? A bad list.

[vicar7]

Yes I was wondering about Star myself I sent her a few shekels and was hoping she would do well because she truly is a “STAR.”

[Seattle Conservative]

Thanks for asking that question. I’ve not seen anything for Star, either, which makes me think that she is unfortunately behind. I’d LOVE to see her win!!

[cookcounty]

"What is with Intrade Democrats in Senate tanking down to 35."

Hmmm.

3 automatics (ND, AR, IN) plus 3 with strong lead: (PA, WS, CO)

that's 6.

Throw in states with GOP polled leads, IL, NV, that's 8.

Then 2 out of the following: CA, WA, WV, CT, DE, or longshot Huffman in OR. Or one of them, plus a Lieberman switch to GOP = GOP control.

[excopconservative]

how is Star Parker doing in Cali? I can’t find any poll numbers for her

---

It will be a big surprise that we will find out Tuesday night. No polls. No debate that I could find. Opponent has problems. The advantage in the district for democrats is over 20 points, so a 15 point wave won’t quite make the grade, but since she outraised her opponent 2 to 1 and has done a lot of media and has a Palin endorsement, so she has a good chance to win.

[colorcountry]

Utah’s 2nd is in play? Hmmmm I certainly hope.

[cookcounty]

"What is with Intrade Democrats in Senate tanking. Down to 35%" Actually it's 41, but it is down>>>>> Murry dropping very fast in Intrade -19. I have no idea why.

[joesjane]

You have done a great job...this is like a bingo card for the dems getting their butts handed to them. I am going to have fun keeping score tomorrow night thanks to your chart. Many thanks and Happy Electioneve!

[Pollster1]

Mark for tracking. Thank you!

[InterceptPoint]

So Tim Scott in SC-1 is out of the picture? Not even a long-shot?????? ... And Ryan Frazier (+1 in latest poll) is “likely Democratic’? ... Are you kidding me? A bad list.

Well SC-01 just isn't on anybody's radar screen.

On CO-07 you may have point. The only poll we've seen (Magellan Sept 11) shows a close race. There really hasn't been a lot independent polling of this race.

What poll are you referring to?

[Tennessean4Bush]

KeyHouseRaces has a methodology that controls their list - at least two of the gurus they track have to move it onto the list. I think InterceptPoint might agree with you that it is a race “in play” in reality but just was so late moving that the “experts” did not get to it. There will be a few of those, for sure.

[Tennessean4Bush]

plus a Lieberman switch to GOP

Nelson in NE is more likely to switch. Lieberman is a good guy on foreign policy, but stinks on domestic.