KeyHouseRaces - 11/1 FINAL UPDATE - We added ME-02 and UT-02 - 112 Seats in Play

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 1 November 2010 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

THIS IS THE FINAL UPDATE OF THE KEY HOUSE RACES MASTER LIST

So of course we just had to add two more Vulnerable Dems: ME-02 and UT-02.

So we now have 112 seats in play - 105 Dem seats and 7 for the Republicans. And only 4 of those GOP seats are looking vulnerable at this point.

Freeper PJ Too has been  generating weekly Pickup Projections based on the KeyHouseRace Master List and the latest polls. PJ has two ways of modeling his pickup projection: Expert Ratings Based and Poll Based. We have put links to both models on the Home Page at KHR. Note that these projections are updated each Saturday afternoon.

We've also been posting the KHR Pickup Projection and the projections by several other sources on the Home Page at KHR. These projections have been moving up steadily. A good example of this is Real Clear Poliltics. Two weeks ago RCP was predicting a pickup of 53 seats. A week ago their estimate was 59. Last Saturday their estimate was 65 seats. Today RCP predicts a pickup of 67 seats. That's a very nice trend.

Here is the current summary:

 

And this was the biggest week ever on KHR for upgrades by our "Experts". In the Saturday Update we had 137 updates that were favorable to the GOP and 25 for the Dems. Over the weekend and on this Monday before the election there were additional updates from RCP, EP, Cook and CQ Politics and so we have new totals for the updates referenced to 9 days ago:

Experts: GOP 162 and Dems 27

And also worth noting:

Three Weeks of Expert Updates: GOP 312 and Dems 45

Our index improved to +.043 from last weeks -.068 even with the addition of 6 new Dem seats in the last 9 days which skews the index in favor of the Dems.

SO OUR INDEX ENDED UP IN POSITIVE TERRITORY. What does that mean? It means that the assessment of our Experts is that the full list of 112 seats in play (105 Dems and 7 Republicans) tilts GOP on the average. We don't like to brag but we pointed out months ago that if our index reached positive values then we were looking at a huge Republican victory in November and that's the way  it looks right now.

Some statistics about the Master List:

• This week we have 70 Dem seats that rank no better than Toss-Up Leaning D. That's up from 68 two days ago, 63 a week ago and 61 two weeks ago.
• 95 Dem seats are rated no better (for the Dems) than Leans D. That's up from 89 on Saturday, 83 a week ago and 78 two weeks ago.
• Only 10 of the 105 Dem seats look relatively safe with a Likely D average.

[Hush44]

Great....downloaded file for printing!

Is this the thread to look for tomorrow or will you put up a new ‘live’ one?

[jeltz25]

Well, maybe Brown can be recalled a la Davis next year.

Who knows, it may turn out to be a good thing if Brown wins for this reason. If Brown wins and does as bad a job as many expect, and has awful approval #s, come 2012 that will only help the GOP in CA. Probably not. I doubt the GOP ever wins CA at the Presidential level again. The demographics are just too tough.

But I never thought the GOP would lose states like IN, VA and NC either.

[Impy]

It’s quiet before the storm.

Show time. It was a pleasure helping out a tiny bit. I hope we steered some money and attention to worthy candides.

Good luck in your home state elections.

[randita]

Here in PA - it’s TOOMSDAY!

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[End Times Sentinel]

This has just been awesome work out of you for the past half year (? more?).

We all owe you a debt of gratitude!

Let’s close the deal folks!!!

[Impy]

Is it? It’s very close in PA. Very worrisome.