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Boo: Nate Silver Gives Democrats 5 Reasons Why Tuesday Could Be Worse Than Their Worst Nightmares
The Business Insider ^ | 10-31-2010 | Joe Weisenthal

Posted on 10/31/2010 7:16:11 PM PDT by blam

Boo: Nate Silver Gives Democrats 5 Reasons Why Tuesday Could Be Worse Than Their Worst Nightmares

Joe Weisenthal
Oct. 31, 2010, 8:58 PM

We'll be cranking up the politics coverage for the next 48 hours or so, since this is an absolutely crucial election with ramifications for years to come (probably)

Everyone expects the GOP to win big, including liberal politics and stats guru Nate Silver.

Tonight he has a particularly ominous message for his side: The GOP win could be much bigger than anyone is expecting.

He has 5 basic hypothetical reasons this could easily happen:

* Cross-ballot effects: Moderates turning out for high-profile governorships may end up voting for GOPers down-ballot that they otherwise wouldn't have voted for.
* Unlikely voters end up showing up and breaking towards the GOP.
* All undecideds could end up breaking against incumbents.
* The "Scott Brown Effect": It's possible that GOPers in deep-blue areas may see this as a once-in-a-lifetime chance to send one of their own to Washington.

Likely voter models -- which all pollsters use -- may be calibrated to big Democratic years like 2006 and 2008, and thus may be inaccurate this year.

Click here to read the whole article >

[snip]

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2010midterms; democrats; election; gop; gopcomeback
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1 posted on 10/31/2010 7:16:14 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

Its gonna be hugh.

We need to bring lots of popcorn here and JimRob had better get those additional servers online by tomorrow night.

This place will be crowded and more people may get in than we currently have room for!

Woohah!


2 posted on 10/31/2010 7:18:53 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: blam

I don’t know how true all these predictions of GOP landslide are. I hope they are, but I just don’t know.

I do know one thing: I can’t WAIT to vote on Tuesday.


3 posted on 10/31/2010 7:19:50 PM PDT by samtheman
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To: goldstategop

There was a 15 minute wait for early voting in DuPage County IL the other night. That should tell you something.


4 posted on 10/31/2010 7:20:20 PM PDT by Lurker (The avalanche has begun. The pebbles no longer have a vote.)
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To: goldstategop

I can’t wait for the show!


5 posted on 10/31/2010 7:21:25 PM PDT by datura (Democrat=Communist)
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To: goldstategop

Having been here during the last five elections (I’m class of 98’ but had to re-register in 99’ because of a snafu) I can only imagine how hard it’s going to be to get on here Tuesday night.

I think 2000 and the attempt to steal the election from Bush was the toughest time I’ve had accessing the site.


6 posted on 10/31/2010 7:25:00 PM PDT by Luke21
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To: blam

Don’t know if it will be better than predicted for the GOP or what...However I plan to pop some Pop Corn and enjoy the show! Dems may want a nice bottle of Whiskey with a Maalox Chaser!


7 posted on 10/31/2010 7:25:28 PM PDT by jakerobins
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To: blam

What they told us in the Navy . . hope for the best - prepare for the worst. I ain’t buyin the new meme til Wednesday. Doesn’t pass the smell test.


8 posted on 10/31/2010 7:26:16 PM PDT by atc23
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To: blam

That all sounds really spiffy. But outside of a nice emotional high for a few days, maybe weeks, it means diddly. I love seeing Democrats cry and wail. But that is not the goal.

Unless we repeal ObamaCare and stop him from ruling by executive order for the next two years, we have lost.

The real powers behind the Democrat party are crying crocodile tears. Any loses on Tuesday are cheap at the price if the “health care” bill survives. It will finish off the Constitution. And for them 100 seats in the house is chump change to pay for achieving that goal.


9 posted on 10/31/2010 7:27:36 PM PDT by ChildOfThe60s ( If you can remember the 60s....you weren't really there)
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To: Luke21

Our Republican central committee let go of some money so we can throw a huge party here in Mohave County. We’re expecting at least 150 (which is a lot here!). We have four TV’s...a band...food...It’s going to be SO FANTASTIC. I just hope the media hasn’t lulled us into a false state of euphoria...at this point anything except an all out blowout will be reported as a failure. WE KNOW THAT.


10 posted on 10/31/2010 7:27:40 PM PDT by Hildy
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To: blam

After trying to prop them up (with fake polls and analysis) for the past 3 weeks, here comes the part where they have to keep their credibility.


11 posted on 10/31/2010 7:28:21 PM PDT by nhwingut (Palin/Bachmann '12)
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To: Luke21
Senate verdict regarding Clinton impeachment was bad. Remember . . " "under Scottish law . . ."
12 posted on 10/31/2010 7:28:47 PM PDT by atc23
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To: blam
Its open season, the guns and ammo is free and America is going after every single supporter and candidate that is even remotely supportive of Obama and his agenda. And a lot of people cannot aim but just love the big noise their gun is going to make, they are in a blood frenzy with euphoria knowing they are striking back at Obama, the people are feeling more like Free Americans than socialized fodder.
13 posted on 10/31/2010 7:33:39 PM PDT by Eye of Unk (If your enemy is quick to anger, seek to irritate him. Sun Tzu, The Art of War.)
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To: blam

Command Center setup here for election night. 3 Dual screen PC and two single systems setup with two large screen TV’s for news feeds. Chips, Dip, hot cappuccino, Cell and land line. After may final fasting prayer I will be ready to go Tuesday Night!


14 posted on 10/31/2010 7:41:40 PM PDT by jafojeffsurf ( Return to the Constitution.)
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To: jafojeffsurf

This is our Super Bowl, Final Four, etc. for political junkies. :-)


15 posted on 10/31/2010 7:44:37 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: Lurker
kids on networking site “am i right” mostly agreed with my nephews liberals are corrupt post
16 posted on 10/31/2010 7:46:47 PM PDT by Manta (Obama to issue executive order repealing laws of physics)
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To: Republican Wildcat
This is our Super Bowl, Final Four, etc. for political junkies. :-)

It sure will be in my house. We're having some conservative neighbors over for a "Victory Party".
17 posted on 10/31/2010 7:48:06 PM PDT by GLDNGUN
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To: blam
It would be nice to win big, but Pubbies must bring conservatism and cojones with ‘em when they show up for work.
18 posted on 10/31/2010 7:49:08 PM PDT by Navy Patriot (Sarah and the Conservatives will rock your world.)
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To: Republican Wildcat

The Super Bowl will be the repeal of Obamacare. The RINO’s will be out in full force to thwart the will of conservatives so Tuesday better be convincing to RINO’s just as much as it is to democrats.


19 posted on 10/31/2010 7:51:43 PM PDT by volunbeer (Dear heaven.... we really need President Reagan again!)
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To: volunbeer

They have to repeal parts of the Porkulus Bill as well. Remember, the Death Panels were put in the Porkulus Bill.


20 posted on 10/31/2010 7:58:58 PM PDT by SubMareener (Become a monthly donor! Free FreeRepublic.com from Quarterly FReepathons!)
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