Returns continue to favor chances for GOP (Oregon)

http://www.mailtribune.com ^ | October 30, 2010 | By Damian Mann

[dixiechick2000]

If Christine loses that race by 5 points or less, the establishment Republicans will be to blame.

However, I believe she will win. ;o)

[SeattleBruce]

“Dems would win 352,400 to 348,700 based on the 4 point turnout advantage for Republicans.”

The votes so far represent the activist vote. Now the question is, how will the day of 11/2 voters break (OR has all mail-in voting) - I think you’ll see that gap grow and surge toward the Rs...and especially as the state sees the wave coming across from the east...

[dixiechick2000]

It was announced on the radio news on Wednesday that the ballots coming in from Multnomah County were light, and the ballots coming in from the rural “Republican” counties were heavy.

I wonder why they had to make that distinction? lol

[dixiechick2000]

BTW, when Obama was here about 10 days ago at the Convention Center, he was in a room that could hold 40K people. There were 10K.

Compare that to the 75K who went to his rally in ‘08.

[NOBO2]

Dudley is going to pull it off as our next Repub gov. Schrader (district 5) is going to get his head handed to him by Scott Bruun. Art Robinson has huge public zeal right now and makes DeFazio look like an old fossil. Cornilles and Huffman might, just might, pull it off too. Huffman is the real deal, and brilliant too—people that know him are so hoping he smacks down Wyden. People in Oregon hold onto their ballots until the last minute as they do not trust the counting methods and feel there is less graft if handed in late.

[ScottinVA]

I think there is a major upset brewing in Oregon. I think Jim Huffman just may win the Senate in Oregon against Wyden.

How cool that would be... here's hoping Huffman could sneak under the radar screen and take out Wyden.

[excopconservative]

Did your calcs take into account ME?

I left the OR Republican party in 2007.

The reason...I’m a conservative.

---

Yes. Independents are figured as favoring Republicans by 2 to 1. This is due to observed behavior in recent races which I think is due to people like you who feel the party has left them. What isn’t figured in is the voter who favors a third party candidate. Greens and Libertarians, etc are included as Independents. Hard to account for them as they don’t run candidates for all offices and may or may not vote 3rd party in the election.

[Luke21]

“This is due to observed behavior in recent races which I think is due to people like you who feel the party has left them.”

My brother and I voted straight Republican, but are Independents because we hate the GOP establishment.

[cookcounty]

"I just did a check and the interesting thing about Rasmussen’s sample of this race in the latest poll. It shows the.........This race is primed for an upset.

If those numbers are right, I would agree, especially since Independents are very under-represented in Raz's sample.

[Almondjoy]

My mother and her fiance are Dems and they voted straight R. They are on serious Obama hangover. If they can change their minds to R then I’m pretty sure anyone can.

[cookcounty]

Do they count the ballots on Tuesday night????

[excopconservative]

The votes so far represent the activist vote. Now the question is, how will the day of 11/2 voters break (OR has all mail-in voting)

---

Yes, they don’t vote at the polls in OR. The early ballots received might be from those like us, who can’t wait to vote. The lower response from Independents might indicate that they wait until the last minute to decide who they are voting for (usually a bad sign for incumbents). I have to think that the indies who are voting Republican would respond at about the same rate as Republicans (39%). Lefty indies may not be as motivated as Democrats as they aren’t motivated by the desire to retain power. In order to get an Independent response of only 24%, the lefty independents would have a much lower response rate. This may indicate that many more than 67% of the Independents will vote Republican.

You can bet that the democrat machine in OR is scrambling to get ballots turned in to keep the turnout deficit low.

[Trick or Treat]

Ballots turned in and PRAYING for a huge victory!

[hout8475]

There is a good chance that Oregon could go from one Republican rep. to four Republican reps. District 3, Wyden’s former seat, currently held by the bow-tied bicycle rider Earl Blumenaur, is the only seat that is soldly Democratic and pretty much out of reach for Republicans.

[SeattleBruce]

“You can bet that the democrat machine in OR is scrambling to get ballots turned in to keep the turnout deficit low.”

They must be scouring the prisons and graveyards...ugh...

[SeattleBruce]

‘and especially as the state sees the wave coming across from the east...’

I would simply add, this is also true up and down the left coast, here in WA and in CA also!

[little jeremiah]

What about Robinson and DeFazio??

Any news about that race?

[little jeremiah]

I live in Josephine County. Hardly any DeFazio signs except near Takilma.

Robinson signs outnumber DeFreakio at least 30 to 1.

[dixiechick2000]

Omigosh...I certainly hope you are right!

I’ll tell you the honest truth. I’ve lived in this state for almost 19 years. I’ve watched how it’s fallen since the influx of SoCals and, I hate to say it, but the homeless in Portland. People come from all over the country to be homeless there because of the bennies.

If it doesn’t happen this year, then it won’t happen...and I give up.

[dixiechick2000]

Actually, there is an Independent Party here, which is why I am unaffiliated. Too many parties, and too many nuts to crack here. lol

For the first time that I can remember in my almost 20 years here, there’s no third party running in the governor’s race.

Thank you for your very respectful reply. I’m not a statistician, but I love math, and I love wonks. ;o)