OREGON PING!
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Posted on 10/30/2010 9:39:16 PM PDT by Maelstorm
I did some calcs based on 882,000 dems, 670,000 repubs and 546,000 indies (OR sec of state). As it stands now if everyone voted straight party line and indies voted 2 to 1 for repubs, Dems would win 352,400 to 348,700 based on the 4 point turnout advantage for Republicans. That advantage must exceed 5% for R victory and should be more like 10 to 15%.
Also Republicans in OR haven’t taken advantage of declining democrat registrations to register new Republicans. The tsunami may be coming and OR Republicans might not be able to take much advantage of it due to lack of organization, interest or whatever. They may think that OR is a blue state now so forget about it. The reality is that OR-04 and OR-05 and the governorship are winnable just based on exceeding the democrat turnout by 10%.
Actually he was within 11. Still doable however.
And maybe even OR-01.
The only thing is, there are a lot Dems who will vote R this time. It just might be enough...
I’m not sure you are correct about the “Republicans in OR haven’t taken advantage of declining democrat registrations to register new Republicans.” I had heard otherwise a couple months ago. And, like some have said...many Dems will prolly vote GOP....(Hopin’ and Prayin’)
They can’t and announce the tallies BEFORE election day? }:
A couple of things I picked up on the Christine thread for some sharp guys. The smear job is going to hurt Coons. He came out today and denounced it.
Delaware has a cozy Dem and RINO Repub establishment “agreement.” A lot of people stay at home in DE cause it does not matter. They say a lot of those people will be voting and for Christine because she and Tea Party are wrecking the establishment in DE.
Pete DuPont coming out for Christine. The family name is big in DE and he is genuinely appears to be a nice man. He probably would have been a better President than Poppy Bush. I always liked him. Poppy was pretty nasty and snarky when he kept calling him Pierre.
I checked the OR Sec of State website and it had dem registrations dropping 3% since 2008 and Repub registrations had also dropped slightly. Independents and Third parties are growing. That might indicate that there haven’t been enough tables set up in front of Wal-Mart and Fred Meyer to sign the repeal Obamacare petitions and register new voters. Lots of work to do before the 2012 campaign.
This year we will have Reagan democrats voting with us. When I lived up there, there were a lot of them (He was President then.) They ought to be fed up enough now to change parties altogether.
Bob Tierman said 8.5% from a Ras poll last week.
I agree with every bit of your analysis. I think she can win this and everything that could’ve went in her favor these last days of the election has went her way. This is a God’s will race and I strongly believe some races come down to exactly that. What you pointed out is exactly right she has something that Coons does not have and that is committed excited voters who haven’t felt they’ve had a real choice in forever.
I live in Jackson County, OR. There are masses of Republican signs in yards. You have to hunt to find a CPUSA (D) sign. This is Republican Country!
I don’t understand why Huffman never got any support from the RNC, Tea Party Express, etc. Oregon is a pretty inexpensive state to run in, too, I believe.
6 mostly ignored races that possibly could’ve been won with better candidate, more money, etc.
Oregon
Hawaii
Maryland
New York
New York
Vermont
Either a win, or single digits, in Oregon, Hawaii, Maryland, New York.
A safe victory in the other New York and Vermont.
I understand.
What were the R, D, I in the Delaware race by Rasmussen?
I typically weight those figures.
There were two positions which no one was running for; could have we wrote in a freeper on the ballot? Is it possible with a little coordination?
Good news from Jackson County. Let’s hope Multnomah and Lane Counties follow suit.
Did your calcs take into account ME?
I left the OR Republican party in 2007.
The reason...I’m a conservative.
“And maybe even OR-01.”
Music to my ears!!!
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