Returns continue to favor chances for GOP (Oregon)

http://www.mailtribune.com ^ | October 30, 2010 | By Damian Mann

[Maelstorm]

Republicans are outvoting Democrats by 3 percent, according to ballots turned in as of Friday in Jackson County, with signs that turnout will surge by Election Day on Tuesday.

On Friday, Republican turnout was already at 40.8 percent, with only 37.6 percent of Democrats having turned in ballots. Nonaffiliates were at 23.8 percent and all other parties were at 25.7 percent.

Earlier in the week, Republicans had just over a 1 percent lead in voter turnout compared with Democrats.

Overall voter turnout on Friday morning stood at 35.5 percent, greater than the previous two midterm elections, when turnout stood at about 30 percent at the same time.

Voter turnout in the state stood at 33 percent late Thursday night, according to the Secretary of State's office.

Statewide, 39 percent of Republicans had voted compared with 35 percent of Democrats.

Doug Breidenthal, chair of the Jackson County Republican Central Committee, said he continues to get a record number of people volunteering.

Allen Hallmark, chair of the Jackson County Democratic Central Committee, said he was disappointed Democrats didn't have a better showing so far.

"It's the antics of Washington that have really put the spurs in the Republican and conservative base," Breidenthal said.

[Maelstorm]

I think there is a major upset brewing in Oregon. I think Jim Huffman just may win the Senate in Oregon against Wyden. There has been a late shift to him in the latest Rasmussen poll with Wyden only leading by 11 now after having leading by 16. Another good thing is that Chris Dudley has been running consistently ahead. Huffman's challenge has been name rec but he is clearly doing a lot of the right things as election day nears and voters are shifting to him. One good thing is that he still hasn't maxed out his base. I'm betting come election day he'll be at near parity with Wyden with well above 80% of GOP. Some other good things. Oregon has more self identified Tea Partiers than the National Average, a majority support the repeal of Health Care and Obama is under 50% plus Wyden's negatives are higher than Huffman. This race I believe has been a sleeper. I think it is unfortunate that more attention hasn't been spent on it but at the end of the day it may be a good thing.

[goodnesswins]

Well....we’ve been holding our ballots...until the last minute....and we’re NOT VOTING FOR WYDEN! or any other DEM

[goodnesswins]

Oh, this is Jackson County....I wonder what’s going on in Multnomah and Washington Counties...

[Maelstorm]

I just did a check and the interesting thing about Rasmussen’s sample of this race in the latest poll. It shows the following.

Exit Polls 2008 with were only 1 point off from the final result
D- 37
R- 26
I- 37

Here is the Rasmussen Sample.
R- 30%
D- 43%
O- 27%

This race is primed for an upset.

[Maelstorm]

After looking at the sample in the last Rasmussen poll and comparing it to 2008 I think Huffman has a really good chance of seeing an upset on election day especially with the clear indication that Republicans are more energized.

[Anti-Hillary]

Whoo Hoo!!!! I am with you Maelstorm!!!!

Bruun WILL beat Schrader
Cornilles will most likely beat Wu
AND......

I will do cartwheels up and down the I-5 corridor when Robinson puts the smackdown on DeFazio!!!

That guy is a real TURD!!!!

Go Oregon. Go from true blue to flaming hot RED!!!!!!

[no dems]

First of all, thanks for the Post. Wow! What great news! Who'd have ever tho't there was even a prayer we could pick up the Senate Seat in Oregon? Your comment:

This race I believe has been a sleeper. I think it is unfortunate that more attention hasn't been spent on it but at the end of the day it may be a good thing.

That is a "good thing"; the element of surprise. Don't let your enemy know you're coming.

[no dems]

Why are you holding your ballots?

[Maelstorm]

I sure hope so. I’d been meaning to get back to the poll numbers because I’d had a feeling that the North West had been neglected. If the GOP statewide turnout holds where it is now which is considerably above 2008 levels then I think we are going to see a lot of action in Oregon on election night. If Huffman doesn’t win it will be narrow.

[Frantzie]

I wonder if things go well early on the East Coast like maybe Christine O’Donnell winning will help Huffman and other Repubs on the West Coast? I hope so.

[Luke21]

I think a lot of these are vote by mail states with early voting.

[truthfreedom]

do you have access to the Rasmussen internals? a Platinum membership?

Are you serious about that? Is that the Rasmussen R D I on the Oregon race?

[Maelstorm]

I think it is good news. I have had some success using a combination of prior exit polls with current polling to get a good feel on the validity of poll samples. There is one thing that is without a doubt and that is Oregon is shifting significantly towards Republicans where as it shifted late towards the Democrats in 2008 which led to a Merkle win.

[blackd77]

Holding the ballots...sort of like running the clock down in football, before scoring a touchdown? No time to respond to “it”...whatever it is. It’s not perfectly analogous, but the philosophy is the same. Also, you gain information as time passes.

[Anti-Hillary]

I REALLY think the RNC blew it BIG TIME by not campaigning here and putting more money into Huffman’s race. Total missed opportunity!

Now get this... Last poll taken had Robinson at 44% and DeFazio at 48%. BUT.... DeFazio won his last election with 82% of the vote!! Think about that! That is HUGE!!!!

[goodnesswins]

I used to live in Washington....on the edge of King County....not a real trusting person.....

[goodnesswins]

YEP....

[bray]

Last week’s Ras poll had Huffman w/in 8% of Wyden. That is very possible.

Pray for the Election

[milagro]

Here in Southern Oregon there are a TON of Art Robinson signs. Sure hope he can defeat DeFazio. Wish Dudley and Huffman had run better ads--they're all over the TV and--to me--are pretty lame. Wyden's ads are, sadly, much better--but would LOVE IT! if Wyden lost his Senate seat.

BTW--mailed my ballot in last week, but really do miss going to a precinct polling place on election day. Voting by mail is convenient, but it sure seems impersonal.

Anyway--would love it if on November 2 we here on the Left coast could experience a "tsunami Tuesday"!

[Maelstorm]

It will be interesting. Just back on the 24th the Democrats were leading in vote returns. I think Christine is much closer than it appears. The stats for OR and DE are very close. Similar levels of Tea Party support, opposition to Obamacare, and Presidential disapproval. Christine is closing the deal but in the end it will come down to turnout. The only thing she has against her is the Democrat hate. If that translates into more Democrats at the polls then that is bad for her. However I don’t think Democrats think she can win and in a midterm that might leave them staying home, the same goes to disgruntled Republicans. Sure they might not like Christine but if you are real conservative are you going to get out of bed on a rainy Nov morning and go vote for an Obama supporter for Senate? I just don’t see it. I’d like to see a poll showing Christine in single digits. That would be great and make me feel a lot better. However most of the polls have samples favorable to Democrats. Rasmussen and the most recent university poll which was partially conducted by Survey USA have the most balanced samples. If they are right I think provided things go her way tomorrow and Monday then I expect her to narrowly defeat Coons. She’s had a good week this week. She has been running ads driving up Coons negatives and she has increased her positives. I wish she’d have started a little sooner with the negative ads but I’m just happy she is hitting Coons and he is clearly trying to hide out till election day. The Democrats are not behaving like they have a sure win. They are behaving like they are very afraid she will win.