Posted on 10/06/2010 5:50:04 PM PDT by WebFocus
There are actually two polls out today, one from FDU and the other from the University of Delaware showing Coons up 19, but the latter is a poll of … randomly selected Delaware adults. Why on earth would anyone spend good money to survey a sample as broad as that at this point in the campaign? We’re less than 30 days from the election, boys; from now on, it’s likely voters or bust.
FDU did confine its own poll to likelies, though. The last survey of likely voters in Delaware was by Rasmussen on September 26 and showed Coons up just nine points. Whether his lead is actually expanding or these FDU numbers are simply an outlier will depend, I guess, on what Ras comes up with later this week.
Republican Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell is actually better known to Delaware’s likely voters than Democrat Chris Coons: 93% say they have heard of Coons, while 97% say they have heard of O’Donnell. Nonetheless, according to the most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind, Coons leads O’Donnell 53%-36% in the special election…
Democrats have largely united behind Coons: 85% say that they will vote for their party’s nominee. However, only 68% of Republicans say that they will vote for O’Donnell. Independents lean to Coons by 46% to 37%.
“Typically, Republicans are more loyal to their party than Democrats,” said Dan Cassino, professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University and survey analyst for the university’s PublicMind research group. “This hesitation by Republicans is hurting O’Donnell.”
A few things here. On the upbeat side, remember that O’Donnell’s ad campaign is just starting to roll out and that she’s got tons of cash to keep it running. (In fact, FDU’s poll was concluded the day before her “I’m not a witch, I’m you” spot debuted.) The ad barrage and the debate between her and Coons a week from today will be all-important, obviously; if she’s still down by double digits 10 days from now, oh well. On the downbeat side, one thing not mentioned by FDU in its summary but worth flagging in the crosstabs is how much worse O’Donnell’s doing among women than men. Among male likely voters, Coons leads 50/41; among women, it’s 56/32. That’s strikingly similar to CNN’s poll of this race from a few weeks ago, which showed a roughly even split among men but a 29-point lead for Coons among female voters. The tea party’s favorable rating in Delaware is equally skewed: Overall it’s 34/48 but just 40/45 among men versus … 29/51 among women. In fact, the gender gap is much wider vis-a-vis views of the tea party then it is on abortion. In Delaware, 36 percent of both men and women describe themselves as pro-life compared to 51 percent and 56 percent, respectively, who say they’re pro-choice. We already knew that women voters generally tilt towards Democrats but they’re tilting waaaaay over towards Coons’s side in this state. And if that’s because they simply can’t stomach the tea-party paradigm of small government then I’m not sure what O’Donnell can say policy-wise to win them over.
As for the boldfaced stuff in the excerpt, some of those wayward Republicans are bound to come home on election day but the high name recognition for both candidates is worrisome. It’s one thing if blue-state voters are leaning towards the Democrat instinctively because they haven’t looked at the Republican yet, it’s another if they have looked at him/her and are leaning Democrat anyway. Here’s hoping Team O’Donnell’s got some killer ads in the pipe. Call Ladd Ehlinger, guys! Dale Peterson is standing by.
“...randomly selected Delaware adults”
Who else votes BUT adults?
are we embarrassed yet?
In the end, it might still be a good trade. I hate diluting the Republican brand with Libs like Castle.
If the people of Delaware want Socialism, let them vote RAT. Maybe one day they will wise up, and if they do, we need to make sure we are viewed as a true alternative.
No. I’m not embarrassed in the least. I never thought the Repugs stood a chance of taking the majority in the Senate, and I for one, am damn glad to see a RINO not get that seat. As for O’Donnell...okay, it doesn’t look good for her, but in the end, good riddance to the RINO Castle and let his defeat at the hands of the Tea Party candidate be a warning to other elitist, snooty, snobby, RINO punks.
Rather lose than have the spector/graham/collins crew keep giving that jackass in the WH political cover
Wow! This is going to be the first race called on election night. I will never forget the embarrassing senate seat in Florida Katherine Harris-Bill Nelson election was called with two percent of the votes in and was the first one called. We can’t win them all but to have an embarrassing blow out is not good.
Only adults vote, but not all adults.
at this stage of the election, Smart polsters are limiting the pool to “Likely Voters”.
the realy hard part is guessing what the turnout percentages will be for the two parties and independents.
Nope.
If a Lib has to win that seat I prefer they have a “D” next to their name rather than an “R”......
Why even try? This “democracy” of ours has become a joke. At this stage, I would resort to mockery and street theater a la Abbie Hoffman. Does anyone here think that Bawney Fwank, Alcee Hastings, Barbara Boxer or Barbara Lee can ever be dislodged? A fools game. 89% of incumbents get reelected (please feel free to correct my number.)
Not me. Best case scenario, O'Donnell wins. Bad scenario, Coons wins. Worst scenario, Castle won the primary ane the general election.
Have we forgotten Jumpin' Jim Jeffords? With the very real chance of a 50-50 tie in the Senate, Castle would have been kingmaker. Better the devil you know than the RINO you know. :)
exactly
In a sense, O'Donnell is similar to Hoffman in NY-23. Like him, she's also a candidate that gained support because of their opponents, not because of themselves. In Hoffman case, when somebody else ran in the next election, he lost.
That to me is the bottom line. What doesn’t get cleaned out in 2010 will get cleaned out in 2012.
Really? Not Maryland US Senate?
Who’s the Republican running there?
Is that planned to be a close race?
How about Leahy in Vermont? That a nail-biter you think?
Who do we have challenging a Democrat incumbent?
Not a complete loss...got rid of Castle, and I have learned to avoid Delaware at all costs...don’t care for people that embrace Communism.
Pretty hard for her when she has to run against both sides. Even Rush dissed her regarding her advertisement. Only people that seem to support her are died hard conservative independents and tea party types.
I am getting more and more disgusted with the republicans. Not a word against the commie she is running against but plenty time dissing her. As I said even Rush is becoming part of the problem now. Guess he doesn’t want to get embarrassed either.
“Rather lose than have the spector/graham/collins crew keep giving that jackass in the WH political cover”
I agree 100%. I’d rather be stabbed in the front by an acknowledged enemy than stabbed in the back by someone wearing my own team jersey.
Since when does “Fairly Ridiculous” do polls?
I also note that Sienna in NY has Cuomo winning by 40 points or something....I’ll wait till I see a poll from a more familiar/reliable source.
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